Market recap #201

tradfi news@tradfi

*NVIDIA WORKING WITH SK ON ‘AI INITIATIVE’ WORTH TOTAL OF $500B *NVIDIA TO GET ACCESS TO SK HYNIX MEMORY AS PART OF AGREEMENT #NVDA • #SKHY

The Transcript@TheTranscript_

$GOOGL Alphabet CEO: Confidence in AI returns has strengthened over the past year “We are seeing momentum across consumers and enterprises and developers and so on. So it feels like, if anything, over the past year, we've gotten more bullish on the opportunities ahead.”

Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker

Nvidia is the leading open source AI company by a wide margin. The silliness of this post is compounded by the fact that the letter did not suggest that closed source AI companies should open source their models.

Julian Schrittwieser @Mononofu

I’m so excited that @JensenHuang is a believer in open source now, looking forward to the CUDA and GPU driver open source release!

NVIDIA@nvidia

AI security advances when the industry builds in the open, together. We're introducing the Open Secure AI Alliance with industry leaders to develop new techniques and tools to safeguard software and agents. By sharing models, tooling and research in the open, we can broaden the

Photon Capital@PhotonCap

from $QCOM Qualcomm Dragonfly Portfolio One of the most interesting parts of Qualcomm’s HBC roadmap is not the memory itself, but what comes next. Even as $QCOM tries to reduce HBM dependence, it is simultaneously building for 800G/1.6T optical, AOC, AEC, coherent-lite DSP, and

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio. Details include: 1. The guarantees from Nvidia would help OpenAI lease a 10GW project that SoftBank is developing in Ohio 2. In total, the project could cost more than

BitMart@BitMartExchange

Important Notice After a careful evaluation of the Company's operating conditions, market environment, and future strategic direction, BitMart has made the difficult decision to commence an orderly wind-down of its trading platform operations. We deeply regret having to make

John Galt@AtlasShrug1

There is nothing more difficult in the money management business than recognizing the signs to get off the 🚂. And it doesnt require going balls to the walls short or even net short at all, bc that game tends to be a losing one over time. I have made almost all of my money

Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

$AMKR Q2 EARNINGS • Revenue $1.90B vs Est. $1.82B • EPS $0.70 vs Est. $0.48 • Gross Margin 17% vs Est. 15% • EBITDA $400M vs. $331M • Net Income $174M vs. $121M Q3 Guidance • Revenue $2.0B vs Est. $2.1B • EPS $0.77 vs Est. $0.65 • Gross Margin 19% vs Est. 17%

Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker

Market is overreacting to hyperscale credit spreads widening from my perspective. TL;DR Spot pricing for renting GPU compute materially above contracted rates implies hyperscalers are underearning while operating cash flow acceleration is an underestimated source of funds for AI

P Equity Research 📰@pequityresearch

Amazing commentary from Celestica $CLS: "Driven by very strong customer demand, and supported by new program wins, we expect revenue growth in 2027 to accelerate beyond the 65% growth rate we are anticipating in 2026." Bonkers! Will listen to the conference call and give more

Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

$GOOGL reportedly agrees to guarantee up to $44B of third-party data center leases across ~2.4 GW and 10 projects. The backstop supports TPU adoption as an alternative to $NVDA with Google expecting TPU revenue to exceed any obligations created by the guarantees.

CK Capital@CKCapitalxx

$STX Q4 FY2026 absolutely crushed, Revenue: $3.63B (est. $3.49B) EPS: $5.71 (est. $5.09) Non-GAAP gross margin: 52.7% (37.9% YoY) Operating cash flow: $1.3B Free cash flow: $1.1B FQ1 2027 guidance: Revenue: $4.1B ±$100M (est. $3.75B) EPS: $7.30 ±$0.20 (est. $5.86) Double beat

tae kim@firstadopter

SK Hynix missing numbers is BULLISH for SK Hynix. I'm serious. Hear me out. The Korean analyst who predicted the Q2 miss said it happened because SK Hynix has a higher HBM mix. HBM is the more durable, higher-moat business that should command a higher multiple. HBM is in major

Wall St Engine @wallstengine

SK HYNIX $SKHY Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $54.6B (Est. $57.7B) 🔴; -5.4% 🔹 Operating Profit: $41.6B (Est. $44.2B) 🔴; 76.3% operating margin 🔹 DRAM ASP: +~30% QoQ 🔹 NAND ASP: +mid-50% QoQ 2026 Market Outlook: 🔹 DRAM Demand Growth: +mid-20% YoY 🔹 NAND Demand

Jukan@jukan05

Finally, some welcome news. In a report published today, JPMorgan said that most leveraged ETFs in the Korean stock market have been liquidated and estimated that hedge funds’ deleveraging is also about 90% complete.

SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_

The Street models 2028 WFE around $190–200B. If the Top-5 equipment makers simply sell out planned capacity at today's prices, we think WFE lands above $230B. (1/4)🧵

Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker

A series of fairly wild thoughts from Dwarkesh. I thought I was bullish but even I am not assuming that the price to rent compute continues to go up! I will say that I am in SV this week and Dwarkesh is capturing the zeitgeist. Net, net public markets would probably be trading

Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp

"Lab compute 3x-es year over year. For a lab to 10x revenue while continuing to only 3x compute, some combination of the following 3 things has to happen: 1. Lab margins have to increase, 2. The price of compute has to increase, 3. Labs have to spend a greater fraction of

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR WARSH'S STATEMENT: 1. The US economy is showing "impressive resilience" 2. Inflation "remains elevated" relative to the Fed's 2% target 3. The policy statement displays "just the facts" and "steers clear" of guidance 4. There is no soft inflation target,

tae kim@firstadopter

Here's my full @tbpn interview from yesterday, where I explain why AI chip stocks are going to soar over the next 6–9 months due to the imminent RSI advances from OpenAI and Anthropic. RSI will drive a dramatic increase in AI model capabilities, which will consume exponentially

Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs

This Leopold / Situational Awareness story is crazy. > Go from $1.5B to $20B in under two years. > Over 1,000% since launch, 270% ytd to May alone. > Jane Street which almost never allocates to external managers becomes an investor. > $24B near the highs, levered as much as 4x.

AskLivermore@asklivermore

Today AI stocks are ripping 10-20%+ after 6 straight days of red in $QQQ and $XLK. Everyone is asking me if this is a real bottom, or a fake-out. This is what we need moving forward: Fake Rally: • One monster green day • Mostly short covering • Volume is okay but not

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

Absolutely incredible. In an unprecedented move, South Korea's stock market just collapsed -44% in 40 days, erasing -$2 trillion in market cap. Now, South Korea's finance ministry has announced plans to "stabilize" the market. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

P Equity Research 📰@pequityresearch

$AXTI - the InP provider - has reported: "We have reached an inflection point in our business where strong customer demand for data center optical connectivity coupled with our continued success in adding manufacturing capacity and improving productivity are driving a

Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs

Key points from $AMZN earnings call: CEO Andy Jassy: "I think we're still in the relatively early stages of how much demand there's going to be for AI." AWS: - Fifth straight quarter of AWS acceleration and fastest growth in 18 quarters. - AWS revenue was $42.2B (+37% YoY), and

TBPN@tbpn

Here is the full letter Leopold sent to his LPs last night. Rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

Wall St Engine@wallstengine

MURATA SEES AI CAPEX MODERATION AHEAD - BLOOMBERG Murata Manufacturing is a Japanese electronics-components maker and the world’s leading supplier of multilayer ceramic capacitors, or MLCCs, which regulate power in devices ranging from smartphones to AI servers. President Norio

Wall St Engine@wallstengine

KIOXIA SEES NAND SUPPLY TIGHT THROUGH 2027 - NIKKEI Kioxia, the Japanese NAND flash and SSD maker formerly known as Toshiba Memory, said AI data-center demand continues to exceed supply. April-June SSD and storage revenue rose more than fivefold YoY to ¥1.1747T, roughly