What we just witnessed this week in Iowa's elections

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(Primary night in Iowa. One giant monitor with election returns, one journalist learning new technology in a new digital world, former Iowa House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst, and former Iowa House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl.)

Let’s do it live!

Sometimes, you try something new and plan/hope/pray that it works. Fortunately, Jennifer Konfrst and Matt Windschitl agreed to try it with me. What a unique experience.

Konfrst is the former house minority leader. Windschitl is the former house majority leader. Konfrst is a Democrat. Windschitl is a Republican. They both ran for Congress this year before dropping out.

They also had a strong relationship —both as professionals and as friends — formed when they led their respective caucus during the legislative sessions. And on Tuesday night, they demonstrated their knowledge of the issues, election process, and primary election candidates for Iowa viewers across the state as we did 2 1/2 hours of live streaming coverage together for Gray Media Iowa’s television stations.

Their chemistry was a blessing. I really appreciate their insights. Both will be finishing up their term in the Iowa House. I will be curious if we will see one/both of them on a ballot again.

"Trust my gut.”"

That has been reinforced now that we have had time to think about what happened on primary election day in Iowa and what it means for November’s general election.

What my head was telling me on primary election morning: “Randy Feenstra will become the Republican nominee for governor of Iowa. It’s a no brainer.”

Why Feenstra? Feenstra is a three-term congressman, represents the most heavily conservative congressional district in the state, raised the most money, received high profile endorsements from people like former Governor Terry Branstad and President Donald Trump, and is much better known that the other four primary challengers.

What my gut was telling me: “Zach Lahn has ‘it’ in this race.”

Why Lahn instead of Feenstra to win the nomination? No other Republican candidate for governor had the energy, enthusiasm, and crowd sizes that Zach Lahn attracted in the final weeks of the campaign.

Feenstra is also connected to an unpopular Congress, does not have the natural public speaking skills that other successful candidates often display, and he failed to successfully connect with primary voters on what his vision for the state was.

Lahn is a “change” guy. Republicans have dominated Iowa elections for more than an election. Perhaps, a Republican “change candidate” could be the party’s best message communicator to voters who may seek new priorities after the party has already prioritized lowering taxes, streamlining government, and changing the education system.

“Ignore your head. Believe in your instincts.”

Lahn the nominee

Lahn was a rookie politician. However, he was not new to politics. He has previously worked on a handful of local and state campaigns, as well as for Americans for Prosperity, the Libertarian-leaning, limited government organization founded by the Koch brothers (Lahn’s second wife had been previously married to one of the founder’s sons).

I had wondered if Lahn had enough time to win over the voters he would need to earn the nomination. His decision to commit at least $2 million of his family’s money to the campaign helped speed up that process.

Lahn is also talking about issues in ways that some Republicans have not prioritized in recent years, especially water quality and the state’s cancer rate. He is charismatic and engaging with an audience and versed on social media.

He will have to further explain his views on immigration, farmland ownership, and taxes as he now campaigns before a general audience rather than Republican primary voters.

Yes, I agree that Lahn could be more challenging for Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand to defeat in November than Feenstra.

Questions…

—I understood why Feenstra skipped debates, but I didn’t understand why he didn’t make up for it by blanketing the state with events.

I also didn’t understand why his campaign focused so much on praising President Donald Trump throughout the campaign.

Rewind: Despite Feenstra telling me that he would publicly endorse a presidential candidate before the 2024 Iowa Caucuses, he never did. That meant that he never endorsed one of Trump’s challengers. But, of course, he also never endorsed Trump either.

Fast forward: Feenstra eventually earned Trump’s endorsement on the Friday before Tuesday’s primary election. But I question how many voters supported him solely because of the Trump support. (I also remain curious which person/people convinced Trump that he had to endorse Feenstra. I doubt that Trump was thrilled that he chose a losing candidate.)

—I never understood how state Sen. Zach Wahls’ campaign arguments versus his Democratic challenger for the U.S. Senate, state Rep. Josh Turek, would lead to the nomination. It is understandable that Wahls would be frustrated that $10 million or so in outside money backed Turek. I’m sure Wahls would have loved to get that support instead of his opponent.

There was no realistic way that Wahls could raise that amount of money and offset it with ads of his own. Wahls complained about Turek being U.S. Sen. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s candidate and that he wasn’t an “insider.”

Maybe that was his only play to do the “us vs. them” theme. But it always seemed to difficult to see how Wahls could get the support he needed to win on that theme. It turned out that it was, and he got beat nearly two-to-one.

Turek — a Democrat who previously won in a Republican-leaning legislative district in Council Bluffs — also seemed to be a potentially more difficult opponent in the general election against U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee compared to Wahls — a Democrat who has won in a solidly Democratic district in Johnson County.

Buckle up: Turek vs. Hinson and Lahn vs. Sand could be two doozies in November.

The value of President Trump’s endorsements

Finally, I’m not sure what I think yet about this BBC article that questions whether President Trump’s influence is waning.

If we just focus on Iowa, Feenstra’s primary election loss showed that there are limits to a Trump endorsement.

However…

Trump also endorsed Hinson (she dominated her race) in the U.S. Senate Republican primary over former state sen. Jim Carlin of Sioux City.

Trump endorsed U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller Meeks of Ottuwma in her primary re-election campaign versus her repeat challenger, marketing consultant David Pautch of Davenport (MMM dominated that matchup unlike two years ago).

Trump endorsed Clear Lake real estate businessman Joe Mitchell in the 2nd Congressional District primary over state Sen. Charlie McClintock of Alburnett (Mitchell dominated that race).

It might be difficult to measure exactly how much Trump’s endorsement impacts voters in the primary. We might have a better idea of the value of Trump’s name in the November election results.

No one may have a bigger impact on how voters view the two major political parties than Trump…even though his name is nowhere on the ballot.