Welcome to the August edition of “The Hot Streaks That Matter,” where we use all our tools and wiles to give you detailed and data-backed scoops on which recent MiLB heaters really matter for understanding player value going forward. This month, we have some slow-burn 2025 first round draft picks getting comfortable in pro ball and showing why they were so highly regarded in the first place, a couple of long-time Oyster-beloved launchers who just keep getting better, two more Brewers as seems to be a requirement in these monthly pieces, and more! Not all hot streaks tell the same story—some indicate a real positive change in mechanics or approach, while others can be BABIP-driven flukes or simply artifacts of small sample sizes. Here, we sift through the noise (mixed metaphor?) and give you the scoop on what the most notable flaming hot months in MiLB can truly tell us about the prospects who produced them.
As a reminder, the full version of this monthly article is exclusively for paid subscribers, so if you want all the glorious content it contains (and how could you not), now is the time to upgrade that subscription!
Bonemer is one of only 11 players in the Minor Leagues’ 30-HR club and the only 20-year-old to do so in High-A and above. He had 18 homers in 278 High-A PAs to start the season, but also ran a career-high 29.1% K rate, raising some concerns that his rise in power came at the expense of serviceable contact. He has killed off that narrative thus far in his early Double-A work, continuing to mash, lowering his K rate to 24.6%, and upping his contact rate to a more respectable 74.2%. He is also accomplished in the supplementary tools: walking at a mid-teens clip and keeping his average at a solid .253. Bonemer is a ball magnet too, with his 20 HBP ranking 13th in the minors.
Bonemer’s Regular Probability Growth: 2026 Season
Bonemer’s rather slow May and June (and high Ks) knocked his regular percentages down to below preseason levels, but his Double-A demo job brought him to just below a ¾ chance of being a producer in the show. Our model loves both contact improvements and wRC gains when moving up levels, and Bonemer has done both this season!
Bonemer’s best trait is his elite-level skill in elevating the baseball, making him a threat to do damage on every swing:
How good is the skill? The only three players this season with a Development Speed and lift equal or better than Bonemer’s with at least 1 SD above average HR Power are Emil Morales (LAD), Edward Florentino (PIT), and Miguel Caraballo (SFG) (a 17-year-old high K Complex player). Bonemer is truly in the top class of elevators, and he possesses the raw power to turn it into homers.
We published a piece on lift rates not too long ago, highlighting the stickiness of lift (especially amongst already good lifters) and the production benefits of good lift. To summarize, lifters as elite as Bonemer tend to keep elevating the ball (he would be Q4 on the X-axis):
And players who are elite lifters tend to have higher wRCs and make the big leagues more often than their low-lift peers:
In a way, FanGraphs captures the essence of lift in the difference between “raw power” and “game power,” where raw power roughly translates to hard contact, and game power to one’s ability to turn that into XBH and homers (look at poor lifter Deyvison De Los Santos as an example). In our opinion, lift is often underrated as a characteristic leading to power; heck, even some players with poor power can be bona fide homer threats with hyper-optimized lift. Fortunately for Bonemer, he doesn’t have to choose, with a 22.4% HR/FB rate displaying that he possesses both raw power and the lift to clear fences. It’s hard to luck your way into 30 bombs.
Personally, we were wary of Bonemer’s elevated K rate in the early season, and were curious why the model was willing to forgive the increased Ks. After the last month and a half of sublime Double-A play, both we, our model, and most prospect prognosticators are on the same page: Bonemer is a high-upside, HR mashing stud.
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