How to Survive Wall Street's Slip into Pokémon Card Economics
A short story dedicated to Stanley F. Druckenmiller in honor of his August 24th WSJ editorial, followed by two essential reads
The Kotok Report
In the Kotok Report I write about a range of topics that encompass economics and finance, policy views, and sometimes personal tales of 50 years in finance and fly-fishing. — David R. Kotok
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The Scott Bessent Trade
Today we examine a possible trade. Consult your adviser for details and decisions. This discussion is not investment advice.
Trump-Carney, Smoot-Hawley
This weekend we witnessed a first-time use of Smoot-Hawley in American history: Trump actually deployed Section 338 of the Depression-era law. IMO, this is serious.
Gold: Leen’s Lodge Deck Chat
Our pre-dinner deck chat at Leen’s Lodge on Sunday, August 9, focused on gold, USA creditworthiness, and China’s payments system versus the US payment system. Are we looking at a Bretton Woods 2.0?
Fishing for AI at Leen's Lodge
We're cooking up some serious AI conversations along with our fish in Maine.
Healthcare in the US: Pillars & Sledgehammers
Our time at Camp Kotok included a riveting discussion around US healthcare policy, funding, and implementation. We follow up this morning with a report on policy blows to US healthcare.
777 Partners Bankruptcy
Chris Whalen nails the story of a bankruptcy.
Quick Note After Leen’s Lodge: America’s Health
Fishing was great, weather warm; there was one rainy day. Intense, robust conversation with diverse views and collegial discourse was the daily norm.
Report From Leen’s Lodge
I’m sending this note while I'm attending the annual Camp Kotok gathering in Maine. It has been quite a week.
In Florida, Culture-War Politics Leave Collateral Damage
Even as wide swathes of American life have fallen victim to culture wars, higher education was seen as immune. Until now.
Interview with Chris Whalen — “David Kotok: Gold & US Credit Default Swaps in Euro”
Chris Whalen and I talked at some length recently about what US credit default swaps denominated in the euro can tell us about default risk and whether it’s a good idea now to hold some gold.
Size Matters — Or Does It?
Companies the size of SpaceX or Nvidia can move entire indices. What are the practical and psychological implications of enormous scale for investors?
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Status
TLR has provided a critical and objective research analysis of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. We have permission to share it.
Hormuz: The War Heats Up
A quick note after reviewing the events of recent strikes on Iran by the United States. We're attaching a July 17th note which described, and we've excerpted from it, some of the targets.