Democratic Majority for Israel hosted a live virtual briefing featuring Ambassador Dennis Ross, veteran Middle East negotiator and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Jacob Magid, U.S. Bureau Chief for The Times of Israel.
The discussion focused on three central regional challenges: the conflict with Iran and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Israel’s negotiations with Lebanon and the continuing threat from Hezbollah; and the situation in Gaza.
Below are key excerpts and highlights from the discussion.
Ambassador Dennis Ross discussed President Trump’s immediate priorities:
“The president wants to get [the war] over. The most important thing for him right now is to get the Strait of Hormuz open because of the impact that has on the global economy and the price of oil.”
On the outlook for oil prices, Ross said:
“Don’t be misled. The price of oil has been contained, but because there were large inventories, big reserves that existed, most of those are being drawn down at this point. So, the longer this goes on, the ability to manage the price the way it has been is going to become more difficult.”
Ross also addressed Iran’s potential leverage over the Strait:
“Even if there’s an agreement to open the straits, [Iran] will play games with it. We will not go back to the status quo ante...And that’s just going to be part of the new reality — gives them a lever they didn’t have.”
On the choices Iran will face after the war, Ross said:
“The Iranians, when this war ends, have to then confront the real contradictions within [their] system. This is a system that, on the one hand, an IRGC, Revolutionary Guard-dominated leadership will want to rebuild the defense industrial base, 90 percent of which has been destroyed… And yet they’re going to need to rebuild a civilian economy that… is bedeviled by high unemployment now, all sorts of shortages, and a regime that can’t meet the fundamentals of governance, which is provide water, provide electricity, and a currency that has some value.”
On the implications for U.S. sanctions policy, he said:
“Those are basic contradictions that if nothing else, they argue for minimal sanctions relief so that they don’t get much of an economic lifeline... There should be very limited sanctions relief if there’s going to be sanctions relief. There shouldn’t be an agreement on a reconstruction fund. You know, let them deal with their inner contradictions. So I think over time they’re not stronger, but in the near term they have a lever they didn’t have.”
Ross also discussed the possibility of future public dissent:
“Those voices are quiescent now because of the war. The public itself is quiescent now because of the war, and because of the crackdown… But if you ask me a year from now, could we see a change? The answer is yes, but is it going to be the collapse of the regime? I doubt it.”
Magid discussed the divergence between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu:
“I think the divergence began right after the war started. There was immediately a desire from the United States to wrap this up as quickly as possible, versus Israel, which wanted to continue for as long as possible to inflict as much damage as it could.”
Jacob Magid addressed the threat posed by Hezbollah’s drones:
“Lebanon is not addressing the key issue right now, which is Hezbollah’s drones. These fiber optic cables that Israel just doesn’t have a response to yet. The IDF is telling people in briefings that they are close to getting a solution, but we’re seeing soldiers die almost every day and attacks into northern communities as well.”
Ambassador Ross discussed the significance of direct Israel-Lebanon talks:
“The talks in Lebanon between Israel and Lebanon is significant because Hezbollah doesn’t want them at all. Iran doesn’t want them at all, and [Lebanon and Israel are] still persisting.”
On Hamas’s position toward President Trump’s 20-point plan and U.N. Security Council Resolution 2803, Ross said:
“What is the premise of the Trump 20 points and Security Council Resolution 2803 (which endorsed the 20-point plan), which supposedly they signed up to? ... There would be a process, not an immediate disarming, but there would be a process of decommissioning of weapons and destruction of tunnels… They’re saying no to this.”
On Hamas’s activities during the ceasefire, Ross said:
“Hamas has been able to use what was the ceasefire to reconstitute itself, to ensure it controls the red zone, to exploit the humanitarian assistance, to monetize it effectively, to recruit more people.”
Ross emphasized the need for an alternative governing authority:
“You also need to show there’s an alternative to Hamas. The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, this 15-person Palestinian committee is supposed to do the governance day to day under the Board of Peace is still in Cairo. If you want to create an alternative, there has to be an alternative on the ground.”
Magid addressed the risks of leaving the political vacuum unfilled:
“The vacuum is, as [High Representative for Gaza and Board of Peace Director-General Nickolay] Mladenov will say repeatedly, the most dangerous thing. It makes it more likely that this will become a permanent status quo, where Gaza is divided and people continue to live in tents.”
The briefing underscored the distinct but interconnected challenges in Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza: reopening the Strait of Hormuz while limiting Iran’s leverage, advancing direct Israel-Lebanon talks while countering Hezbollah, and establishing a credible alternative to Hamas in Gaza. Across all three fronts, the discussion reinforced the need to pair military pressure with a coherent political strategy to achieve durable outcomes.
As events continue to unfold, DMFI will continue to convene expert discussions and provide timely analysis to policymakers and stakeholders.
You can sign up to receive invitations to future live briefings at our website dmfi.org.
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