Forget Fed rate cuts. $200 billion in physical CapEx and power grid upgrades neutralized Fed rate hikes to push US GDP toward +3.0%.
Federal Reserve policy used to dictate economic expansion, but corporate survival and physical capital spending are running the market today.
Anyone relying on traditional business cycle models is operating with obsolete maps.
AI is not floating cloud code on a balance sheet. It is an industrial buildout.
Big Tech hyperscalers are deploying over $200 billion a year in cold cash directly into real-world assets like data centers, liquid cooling systems, and specialized hardware.
This private capital wave creates a floor under heavy industry, keeping Manufacturing PMI expanding at 53.9 despite high borrowing costs.
Running millions of specialized chips demands massive amounts of electricity. Grid capacity is now the defining physical limit.
As a result, capital is flowing straight into electric utilities, grid hardware manufacturers, independent power producers, and nuclear plant operators signing long-term supply contracts.
The service sector index recently jumped to a multi-year high of 56.8. Non-tech companies in healthcare, finance, and logistics are terrified of getting left behind.
They are writing big checks to IT consultants, cloud architects, and security firms to rebuild their operations around AI tools. That demand is behind the strongest service-sector hiring surge in over a year.
Phase 1 is about building physical infrastructure.
Phase 2 will be about enterprise productivity gains and margin expansion.
Large corporate cash reserves have effectively neutralized central bank rate hikes.
Infrastructure spending is already lifting top-line GDP, and the broader efficiency gains across the rest of the economy have barely hit corporate balance sheets yet.
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