The Real Reason Trump Is Suddenly Warming to Ukraine

Throughout this year, there has been an interesting and quite unexpected shift in how Donald Trump speaks about President Zelensky, Ukraine and the war with Russia.

In 2025, the stance of both Donald Trump and his entire administration could have been basically described as open hostility: from Trump and JD Vance berating Zelensky in the Oval Office, the White House cutting off aid to Ukraine or a warm embrace with Putin at a summit in Alaska. With a steady slew of comments on top, from both Trump and other administration officials, criticizing Ukraine, calling Zelensky a “dictator” and expressing very sympathetic feelings towards Russia.

Which is why it became quite noticeable when that stance has started to change in recent months, both when it comes to Donald Trump himself but also with other prominent MAGA figures. In of berating him, in his most recent meetings with Zelensky, Trump talked about what a great relationship with Zelensky he has and how well Ukraine is doing in the war, with smiles all around. Sean Hannity, Fox News anchor and one of Donald Trump’s biggest supporters, delivered a big pro-Ukraine speech in front of Trump at the funeral of Lindsey Graham, a Republican Senator who has long advocated for more U.S. support of Ukraine.

And most visibly, Laura Loomer, a MAGA influencer with a close relationship to Trump, has made a remarkable and very sudden 180-degree shift on Ukraine and Russia - going from calling Ukrainians Nazis and U.S. politicians supporting Ukraine “traitors” to becoming one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters, visiting Kyiv, interviewing Zelensky and calling for more aid for Ukraine in a span of just a few weeks.

So, something has definitely changed. But what is the reason behind this shift? Can it last - and most importantly, will it actually result in any policy changes or anything tangible that might help Ukraine?

Well, let’s start with the first question. Because while the stated reason is that the MAGA movement is now starting to finally see through Russian propaganda and that it only just now began to recognize that supporting Ukraine might be the right thing to do, the reality is a lot more cynical. Specifically, I think this shift has two main reasons.

The first one is related to Donald’s Trump catastrophic decision to launch the war with Iran which has since left Iran in control of the Hormuz Strait and the United States in an endless cycle of negotiations going nowhere, followed by both countries bombing each other. By and large, America’s traditional allies have been either openly critical of the war or at least refusing to engage with it in any way - and here is where Ukraine has managed to score critical points with part of the MAGA spectrum and Donald Trump himself.

Ukraine has had no love for Iran from the start of the war, since Iran has been supplying Russia with drones and other military technology used to strike Ukrainian cities. And so even in this current war, it has taken a far more resolute stance than basically any traditional U.S. ally (with the exception of Israel). It has sent troops and equipment to the Gulf to help shoot down Iranian drones, it fully supported Trump in his decision to launch the war and most recently it attacked an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, officially as a retaliation for Iran’s support for Russia. And while back in March Trump has publicly rejected Ukrainian help, claiming that the United States does not need it, it seems that since then, he began to appreciate it. And that he - together with those MAGA Republicans for whom Israel is a key priority - has realized that they have very few allies left when it comes to Iran - and Ukraine is by far the best one they got.

But while this pragmatic reason has undoubtedly played a role, the real reason for Trump's shift in particular is most likely different - and much more in line with his personality and countless previous decisions. The key reason is that Donald Trump loves winners and he absolutely hates losers. And well, Ukraine is starting to increasingly seem like the winner in its war with Russia.

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While any kind of victory is still very far from the reality of today, the media narrative has definitely shifted. While a year ago, the headlines were dominated by concerns over how badly Ukraine will be impacted by the loss of U.S. aid, today Ukraine has shown that it can survive without it and that, no longer leashed by limits on the use of Western weaponry, it is able to bring the war home to Russia. When war related headlines are filled with images of burning warehouses and refineries in Moscow and St. Petersburg as a result of Ukrainian strikes, it’s increasingly difficult for Russia to look like it’s on top - even if it’s shelling Ukrainian cities at the same time.

For Trump, being on the side of the winner matters more than anything else and he’s already shown that he’s willing to switch, when the odds shift against whoever he supported previously . Just look at New York’s mayor Zohran Mamdani, who Donald Trump frequently attacked and called a “communist” only to reverse completely after his electoral win and once it became clear how popular Mamdani is. Even with all his sympathies for Vladimir Putin and antipathies to Zelensky, Trump just doesn’t want to be seen on the side of whoever appears to be the loser.

But does it matter? Or in other words, can Ukraine get anything tangible out of it - and will it last longer than a few weeks at most? Well, the answers to both of those questions are much less positive.

So far, any shift from Trump has been purely tonal and verbal but has not translated into any real increase in help. What Ukraine needs the most and what Zelensky keeps asking for is an emergency package of Patriot missiles to bolster its air defense which Trump has so far refused to provide. And given how much of the U.S. stockpile has already been consumed in the war with Iran, I am very skeptical that Trump would provide anything more than a very symbolic number at most, if that at all. And even though Trump has reportedly promised to give Ukraine license to build its own Patriots, it’s unclear when - or if at all - that might become a reality.

And while the U.S. Congress might soon pass a new Russia-sanctions package which is already presented as a result of Trump’s shifting stance, the package on its own basically means nothing. Rather than instituting any sanctions immediately, it merely expands the authority of the U.S. president to declare them - effectively giving Trump more leeway in sanctioning other countries with no guarantee that he will use it to sanction Russia at all. And so while Zelensky doesn’t seem to be losing hope, any tangible help for Ukraine is still just as far from reach as it was before.

After all, this is a lesson that Europe has had a chance to learn again and again over the past two years: the fact that Trump is smiling at you and shaking your hand does not mean that he will actually help. In fact, he may very well end up doing the opposite. Because he doesn’t like to give anyone anything, and definitely not for free.

What I think we will see - if Ukraine keeps winning or at least looking like it is winning - is Trump trying to take all the credit for it and making it seem like he basically defeated Russia himself despite not providing any actual help. And if instead the momentum appears to shift again in favor of Russia, I am confident that Trump will shift his stance immediately, once again. Either way, Ukraine will most likely still be in this fight on its own.