The Texas Senate Race

As a Texan who has continually been disappointed by the lack of progress toward “purple” status in our elections, I wanted to share some quick thoughts on the Senate race, whose primary is March 3rd (early voting starts this week).

I’ve been very disappointed by John Cornyn’s lack of backbone in the Trump era. Nevertheless, he’s the Texas senator I have the most respect for as he has at times shown a willingness to stand on principle even when it goes against the party line: his refusal to object to certifying the 2020 election, and his leadership on passing a significant gun safety bill after the Uvalde massacre. While obviously a loyal partisan who is quick to tout his support for Donald Trump, I believe Cornyn to be one of the last remaining “traditional Republicans” who still has some principles that go beyond a desire for grift, power and popularity, whatever it takes.

Compared to his most viable primary opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, he is obviously the more responsible and worthy choice. Paxton was impeached by the Republican-majority Texas House for corruption and marital unfaithfulness. Although the also Republican-majority Texas Senate ultimately acquitted him, the evidence that he is a corrupt scumbag is pretty overwhelming which is particularly galling for an attorney general. While his likely voting behavior may not be substantially different than Cornyn’s, his behavior and effect on our politics will undoubtedly be far worse. If Paxton wins, Senator Cruz will no longer be the most embarrassing and unfit Senator from Texas.

So, who do I hope wins the Republican primary? It’s complicated. I firmly believe that the current manifestation of the Republican party needs to be soundly defeated for the good of the country and true conservatism. A statewide loss in Texas would be a clear signal that the current trajectory of the party is a disaster, and thus an outcome I strongly favor. Cornyn will likely survive re-election, even in a Democratic wave election as seems nearly certain to happen. Paxton, on the other hand, would be a godsend to Democrats’ chances, because even though Republicans in Texas have been conditioned to see him as a fighter for their cause, there are many who are deeply uncomfortable with his moral and ethical failings.

So, while I’d much prefer Cornyn, Paxton is the easier one to beat. Fortunately, I won’t be voting in the Republican primary, so I won’t have to choose between voting my conscience and voting strategically.

I’ve written - here and here - about James Talarico. I’ll be voting for him in the primary, both because I affirmatively like him, and because I think the has the best chance of winning, at least of the remaining options.

His original opponent, whose name I can never seem to remember (it’s Colin Allred), was fine and unoffensive. On policy, I probably agreed with him the most of all the candidates (he’s fairly moderate), but he was just not a very compelling politician. However, his inoffensiveness made him a decent candidate in Texas, and in a wave year, against Paxton, I think he would have had a strong chance.

To my great disappointment, he dropped out and Jasmine Crockett took his place. Crockett is best known for viral video clips in which she personally attacks Republicans, and she’s a darling of the online Left. Which is to say, she’s a partisan fighter. I have no doubt she’d excite some of the Democratic base, to a greater degree than the moderate Allred or the religious Talarico. But to win statewide in Texas, you need to appeal to a decent number of people who have voted for Republicans. Calling Greg Abbot “Governor Hot Wheels” isn’t the way to do that.

Now, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, she may moderate her tone a bit and become a more constructive legislator once she spends more time in Washington, and the incentives of the Senate may contribute to this. She has also been active in opposing and shining the light on inhumane treatment of immigrants, including at the Texas family detention center in Dilley. My opposition to Crockett in the primary is more based on style than substance. I just don’t think her divisive approach is what our politics needs more of, nor what I think will earn her much-needed crossover votes in Texas.

Talarico, on the other hand, may be the most liberal on substance. His “this isn’t about left versus right, but top versus bottom” is a classic lefty class warfare message. He’s well-spoken and authentic when talking about his faith, but his go-to pitch is one of fighting billionaires. Normally, my latent conservative leanings would bristle at that message. But to be honest, the complete capitulation of the wealthiest businessmen in America to the crony capitalism of the Trump administration, regressive economic policy which favors the rich and hurts the poor, and the blind eye turned to financial grift and scams, makes me think this is not only a timely message, but a worthy one.

But most of all, I appreciate Talarico’s approach. As an outspoken Christian who speaks convincingly about the ways in which his faith informs his politics, he’s a breath of fresh air in a party that has often ignored or even been hostile to people of faith. And his “not left versus right” message is exactly the kind of message this country sorely needs. Finally, he has a track record of working with Republicans in the Texas house and just generally has the kind of demeanor and approach that I think would make him a successful Senator.

So, if I had my way, Crockett would stay in the House where her style is a better fit and let Talarico force voters to choose between the adulterous criminal Paxton and the schoolteacher seminarian Talarico. The contrast would be stark.

I don’t think a Crockett nomination is certain doom for Democrats. The way things seem to be headed, Democrats will have a very good year. But Democrats need to be willing to put forth candidates that will have the best chance of winning in their local context, regardless of who most excites them personally. In my opinion, Talarico is that candidate.

If I had to put probabilities to the different match-ups, they’d be something like:

• Cornyn vs. Crockett: Cornyn 95%

• Cornyn vs. Talarico: Cornyn 75%

• Paxton vs. Crockett: Paxton 75%

• Paxton vs. Talarico: 50/50

Don’t forget to vote!

Share