A Utilitarian’s Guide to the 2026 World Cup

In 2014 I wrote in The New York Times that if your own team is not in the World Cup, you should root for the one whose victory would do the most good. Add up the happiness a title would create, more where more people care, more where incomes are lower, and more where a win would be a first rather than a habit, and root for the country on top. That year it was Nigeria. With 48 teams in 2026, and more of the world’s poorer and first-time sides in the field, I rebuilt the guide, with more nuance and, thanks to AI, at a fraction of the old cost. It updates itself as the games are played.

There is a twist this time. A champion is crowned only once, but the tournament gives joy every night, and the best of it comes from surprise. So the guide’s default is not who should win it all, but who is beating expectations: a long shot reaching the quarterfinals thrills more than a favorite who would be disappointed to not be there.

The headline pick? Democratic Republic of the Congo. Open the interactive guide, choose your lens, and see who to pull for tonight:

Full interactive site here.

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