Trump Officially Has More Felonies Than Approval Ratings Points, And America Is Quietly Fixing Itself

Hey America. Your neighbours to the north have been watching you like you watch a buddy who swears he’s fine after his fourth tequila. And I’ve got news for you today, and for once it’s the good kind.

I dug into the numbers this week. All of them. Pollsters, forecasters, special elections, the betting markets, the nerds with spreadsheets. And here’s the headline nobody’s saying out loud:

Donald Trump now has more felony convictions than approval points.

That’s not a joke. That’s math.

The man carries 34 felony convictions around like a Costco membership. And among independents — the people who swing every American election — his approval has cratered into the low 20s in recent polling. Young voters? Around 25%. Black voters? 13%. Felonies: 34. You do the arithmetic. His overall number? 33%. The worst of either term, and the freshest polls have him touching historic all-time lows.

The guy who was supposedly ushering in a thousand-year realignment is now less popular than the DMV, airline baggage fees, and shingles.

Here’s my favourite part, because it’s the part that should give you actual hope, not the hopium kind.

The voters who lent Trump the White House in 2024 — Latinos, young people, independents, the “eh, groceries are expensive, let’s try the loud guy” crowd — are sprinting for the exits. Pew tracked his approval among his own 2024 Latino voters and found it dropped 27 points. Not Latino Democrats. HIS voters. The ones who took a flyer on him.

Turns out when you promise cheaper eggs and deliver tariff inflation, gas spikes, a war with Iran that keeps un-ending itself, and the longest government shutdown in American history, people notice. Wild concept.

These folks didn’t join a cult. They placed a bet. The bet went bad. And they’re doing the most American thing possible: demanding a refund.

You want proof this isn’t just polling vibes? Fine. Actual elections, with actual ballots:

Democrats have flipped 30 state legislative seats since Trump came back. Republicans have flipped zero. Thirty to nothing. That’s not a trend, that’s a beatdown.

They flipped Mar-a-Lago’s district. I need you to sit with that. The Florida state house seat that contains the man’s actual gold-plated humidity palace elected a Democrat in March. A Trump-endorsed Republican lost the district Trump lives in. If your own neighbourhood is done with you, buddy, the intervention has begun.

Louisiana. A Trump +13 district went Democrat 62–38.

Iowa. Democrats took a state senate seat in a district Trump won by 25. Iowa! The place is basically corn and Republicans.

Tennessee. Trump personally endorsed the guy, MAGA Inc dumped over a million bucks in, Trump did two tele-rallies — and his candidate limped across the line by 9 in a district Trump won by 22. At near-midterm turnout, so spare me the “low turnout fluke” excuse.

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s old seat. One of the reddest patches of dirt in America, and the Trump-backed replacement won it by only 12 in a Trump +37 district. That’s the biggest Democratic overperformance in any House special since he took office.

Wisconsin. The liberal Supreme Court candidate won by TWENTY points in a state Trump carried.

Virginia. Spanberger won the governor’s race by 15 and Democrats flipped 13 delegate seats. New Jersey went blue too.

Across dozens of special elections, Democrats are running roughly 10 to 13 points ahead of their 2024 numbers. In 2018, the year Democrats picked up 41 House seats, the warning lights weren’t even flashing this hard.

Forecasters and the betting markets now have Democrats around 85% to take the House, and the Senate — which was supposed to be untouchable — is basically a coin flip. Cook just moved Georgia and North Carolina toward Democrats. Ohio’s a toss-up. Even Texas got downgraded, partly because Republicans nominated Ken Paxton, a man with more ethics investigations than original thoughts.

And if the House flips? Subpoena power. Compelled testimony. Documents. Reporting says Democrats aren’t even planning to lead with impeachment theatre — they’re building a coordinated investigation machine aimed at the money: the companies, the deals, the grift orbiting this administration. Follow the cash, put it under oath, on camera, in daylight. Accountability, the boring, grinding, effective kind.

Real talk: every Trump-endorsed candidate in a congressional special has still won. The wipeouts are in state races; the federal story so far is shrinking margins, not lost seats. In 2018, this same special-election fever cooled off by fall. The Senate map is still a slog — Democrats need four net seats. And Republicans redrew a bunch of maps assuming Latino voters would keep drifting right, which... about that.

So no, it’s not in the bag. Nothing is ever in the bag. 2016 taught everybody that the bag is a lie.

But here’s the thing about hope that isn’t hopium: it’s just evidence. And the evidence says Americans — including millions who voted for this guy — looked at the felonies, the prices, the chaos, and started showing up to every ballot box available like it’s Black Friday and democracy’s 70% off.

You’re not powerless. You’ve been proving it for eighteen straight months, in Louisiana bayous and Iowa cornfields and the shadow of Mar-a-Lago itself.

Eleven weeks, America. Finish the job.

Canada needs you back.

— Dean

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