(Plan) B is for banger.
Casey DeSmith once again proved himself more than capable. He was an absolute beast at even-strength. While not as good shorthanded, he wasn’t in the red, and that’s one area DeSmith consistently provides: more than just stability, he may prove earn himself the Scott Wedgewood in Colorado treatment in time. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. At least not yet. Nonetheless, this is what we expected before the season.
With a 15-8-6 record, the Stars with DeSmith backing them up yielded consistent success. DeSmith posted five multi-game winning streaks, ending the year with a top 15 save percentage among goalies with at least 1000 minutes under their belt.
DeSmith profiles like exactly the kind of goalie who deserves a jump in rank. He’s good against the rush, he’s good at even-strength, and he’s good at stopping chances in high danger areas. He doesn’t have those Stuart Skinner brainfarts, and in general seems as poised a player there is at his position. When you look at his goals save above expected, Jake Oettinger was on pace to stop 34 goals above expected in an 82-game season while DeSmith was on pace to stop 461. This prompts the natural question for fans…
“Why didn’t he see starts in the postseason?”
I don’t mind this question, because goalies are more naturally competitive between teammates. The only thing that matters is the bottom line because there is only one person in net. If one is better than the other — or if one is posting better numbers than the other I should say — then isn’t it only natural to explore said option?
Thankfully we’re distanced enough from the infamous Pete DeBoer drama to ask this question free of subterfuge. We’ll focus on Oettinger later this week, but it’s important to stress how critical fatigue and endurance are to elite goaltenders. There’s a difference between posting good numbers in a vacuum, and posting consistent numbers against division rivals and elite groups. DeSmith’s numbers are deceiving in this regard. Of his 15 wins, only six of those were versus playoff teams. Oettinger had that many wins versus playoff teams within the first two months. That’s a cheesy stat because correlation vs. causation and all that. A goalie may or may not be the primary cause of a team’s victory, and vice versa. Nonetheless, with so much more data on Oettinger, and so much less on DeSmith, it’s important to keep context in mind. Especially when the broad data on Oettinger is that he’s consistent and good despite not having the level his contract or his status among casual fans and media would lead one to believe.
One thing that has changed, however, is the appetite for giving DeSmith a few more starts to prime him for a potential postseason appearance. I don’t know that for a fact. But I have to suspect it’s on the table given DeSmith’s consistency on the backend. It’s not even a debate about Oettinger vs. DeSmith so much as it is a debate about whether or not DeSmith can play meaningful minutes. Does Carolina win a Cup if Brandon Bussi is not completely fresh? With offense being so much more threatening — which explains why save percentages are at lower averages than ever — Dallas might have a situation in net where they can entertain the dramatic proposal of giving opponents different looks in net. I wouldn’t call it wise, but it’s to DeSmith’s credit that his performance prompts us to ask.
Actual numbers were 23 GSAx through 50 for Oettinger, and 17 GSAx through 30 for DeSmith.

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