Hey Garry . . . Shhhhh!

Garry Tan thinks quite a lot of himself despite his trail of boneheaded public utterances. 

Since most people don’t know who he is, here’s the short version: he’s a forty-five-year-old, Canadian born, venture capitalist who lives in San Francisco with an estimated net worth of $300-$500 million. His day job is to lead an organization that is part start-up incubator, part investment fund called Y Combinator. To most regular people Tan is a tech bro.

In the San Francisco tech bro world Tan is a big deal. Y Combinator is also a big deal. Consequently, within a famously self-important community, Tan stands out. His level of notoriety and his perch atop a key institution within the Silicon Valley ecosystem means that lots of tech bros are interested in what Tan thinks. This feature of life within elite circles apparently has helped Tan come to believe that those of us not entrenched in Tech Bro World are interested in his opinions however misinformed or confused they may be.

Lately, Tan has been snorting and fussing that a one-time, five-percent tax on California’s two hundred or so billionaires - which include many tech bros - in order to restore $100 billion in cuts to the state’s healthcare system, resulting from the One Big Beautiful Bill, will be the undoing of the Silicon Valley golden goose model that has powered our economy since st least the 1970’s. The prospect of 150,000 frontline caregivers losing their jobs, over 3 million Californians losing healthcare coverage and 25 million residents of the Golden State paying surging premiums, co-pays and deductibles seems not to concern him.

“Larry and Sergey can’t stay in California since the wealth tax as written would confiscate 50% of their Alphabet shares.” was recently posted by Tan on X.

Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the Google founders, like Tan, were educated at Stanford where they received world class training, including the benefits of large-scale public investment, in their chosen field and future industry from both the state and federal governments.  At Stanford, they were embedded in an ecosystem that was very much a unique product of our state. Their enormous success had much to do with the place it was created and nurtured.

Unlike Tan, Page and Brin are billionaires hundreds of times over. They are among the five wealthiest people on the planet. Going forward, they rightfully have every expectation that their gargantuan wealth will only grow to ever higher levels. That’s why it’s strange to hear Tan say that “Larry and Sergey can’t stay in California”. It is literally true, as everyone knows, that two of the five wealthiest people on the planet can stay anywhere they damn well please.

This truism would hold even if Tan’s many claims about the billionaire tax were accurate, which they most certainly are not.

Tan has claimed, at various times, that “Larry and Sergey” would have to “forfeit shares”, that they would be taxed as if they each were worth $1.2 trillion, that their “voting shares” would be taxed at ten times the actual rate, that they would lose “control” of their company and be “wiped out”. For what it’s worth, every one of these and other Tan claims are false because the specifics are being intentionally misrepresented, or the claimed mechanism does not even apply to publicly traded companies, like Google. I assume he knows this and just chooses to lie because it better suits his ideological preferences.

Tan has been careful to quote the California Billionaire Tax Act (CABTA) in many of his statements. For current purposes, let’s assume Page and Brin are both worth $275 billion (this figure is certainly in the ballpark for both). Under CABTA, they would both face a one-time levy of $12.5 billion, leaving them each with $262.5 billion. That’s the “worst case scenario”.  Alternatively, they could choose to pay $2.75 billion per year (plus a modest interest fee) for five years. It’s their choice, as it would be the individual choice of each billionaire in the state.

The idea that someone worth $262.5 billion “can’t stay” in the place that made them obscenely wealthy strikes regular folks as an odd notion. I’m guessing that “Larry and Sergey” almost never do anything they don’t want to do. Many of us would like to feel the kind of freedom and independence billionaires surely feel.

On the other hand, 150,00 current health care workers will be forced to stop caring for their patients as the $25 billion, in annual California cuts, get fully rolled out beginning January 1 of next year; and 3.5 million individuals will be forced off their healthcare coverage as a result of slashed benefits or rising prices; and 25 million of us, who are covered through commercial, employer sponsored coverage, will pay dramatically more for lesser coverage.  In other words, tens of millions of people will be truly forced to do something absolutely essential but against their wishes.

In the last seven years, the aggregate wealth of California’s Billionaires has grown from about $700 billion to $2.2 trillion. This is a 300% increase during this period.  Had the increase in aggregate wealth since 2019 been 295% would Tan be shrieking that billionaires should immediately leave the state? After all, he is essentially making that exact argument. The truth is, a one-time, five percent tax is quite modest for people who are actually, officially billionaires. Given recent performance of the aggregate billionaire portfolio, every billionaire could pay the full five percent amount in January of 2027 and be just as rich as they had been by July. Literally.

However, if California voters fail to pass CABTA in November 2026 we know exactly what will result. The above figures are consensus figures representing the consequences of inaction. Healthcare providers and policy makers see the looming crisis, and CABTA is the only solution on the table. It is fair to say that absent passing CABTA, thousands of people will die unnecessarily and millions will suffer unnecessarily.  Unfortunately, it is that serious and that straightforward.

Garry Tan should take a deep breath. A little self-awareness goes a long way. Basic comprehension is a good thing, and simple honesty is indeed a virtue.

What we really have here is a simple choice between the preferences of two hundred of the most fortunate people in the world and the basic needs of the great majority of the population.

Billionaires are not victims. Aspiring, soon to be billionaires, especially of the hysterical and obnoxious variety, are not good messengers.

The pending collapse of California’s healthcare system is a real problem for millions of people that don’t have the means, or the privilege, to go anywhere else.

Try solving for that, Mr. Tan.