How often does team with lowest over-under prediction (Dolphins, 4.5) bear out to be true?

Here’s an easy prediction for the Dolphins season:

They won’t be favored in a game this year.

They open against last year’s worst team in the Las Vegas Raiders and are three-point underdogs. That sets the scene for what’s ahead from the view of August.

The other awful team from last year, the three-win New York Jets, are the best-case scenario for the Dolphins to be favored in the Nov. 29 game at Hard Rock Stadium. Home. Late in the year. Who knows where the teams will be?

But to tell where things stand in August: The Jets are 19-1 to win the AFC, via DraftKings. The Dolphins are 40-1.

The only other Dolphins’ opponents with losing records last year are 6-11 Cincinnati and 8-9 Indianapolis. Each played significant portions of the season without their starting quarterback. It happens. Maybe the Dolphins face Cincinnati without Joe Burrow (or Buffalo without Josh Allen)?

Still, you see why the Dolphins (and Arizona) have the lowest over-under number for wins at 4.5 They’re both in rebuilds. The Dolphins enter the season with the second-toughest strength of schedule based on Vegas win projections.

Throw in the stat of the season - $179,229,255 of dead-cap money (via Overthecap.com) – and you see why national expectations are so low even with the franchise getting some positive, new-regime bounce.

This is going to be a rugged year, no matter how much the hope-peddlers try to dress it up in August. You can believe these two things at once:

1. This is the right plan for the Dolphins, taking all their salary-cap medicine this year and modeling after the 2024 Patriots, who won four games while finding a quarterback and added to the team that offseason to go to the Super Bowl last year.

2. This year will be tough as the co-lowest 4.5- win total shows (for the record, some listings have the Dolphins as low as 3.5 wins, others have Arizona that low - the 4.5 wins bar is the consensus for both teams).

Here’s the larger question: How often does the team(s) picked to win the fewest by over-under predictions actually finish with the fewest wins?

The answer is a little unsettling, if you’ve read how the Dolphins could win 10 games if everything goes well or hover around .500 if the young kids come through. Yes, those have been actual media takes this summer.

In eight of the last 10 years, the “under” has been the proper bet for the team predicted to win the fewest games. Of those two teams that went over the predicted win total – the 2019 Dolphins and 2025 Browns – they went over by a half game. Not much.

Those 2019 Dolphins are another model for this year’s team. They were outscored 163-29 in their opening four games and lost seven straight to start the year. But Brian Flores didn’t stop coaching, Ryan Fitzpatrick made some magic at quarterback and they won five of their final nine games. That final win in New England put them over the 4.5-win bar on the over-under.

The 2025 Browns? A driftless season won its final two games to get five wins.

So, no one’s saying these Dolphins can’t win five or six if injuries, surprises and the ball bounce their way. But the more common occurrence is for oddsmakers to set the lowest over-under too high.

Truth is, the 4.5-win over-under total the Dolphins (and Arizona) have is the default position as the lowest number by oddsmakers. It’s the consensus low for over-under wins totals of the previous 10 year.

Let’s just lay out the past decade of predicted over-under and actual record.

2016: Cleveland Browns. Predicted: 4.5. Actual: 1-15.

2017: Cleveland Browns. Predicted: 4.5. Actual: 0-16.

2018: Arizona. Predicted: 5.5 wins. Actual: 3-13.

2019: Miami Dolphins. Predicted: 4.5 wins. Actual: 5-11.

2020: Jacksonville. Predicted: 4.5 wins. Actual: 1-15.

2021: Jacksonsville. Predicted: 4.5 wins. Actual: 3-14.

2022: Houston Texans. Predicted 4.5 wins. Actual: 3-13-1.

2023: Arizona Cardinals. Predicted: 4.5 wins. Actual: 4-13.

2024: New England Patriots. Predicted: 4.5 wins. Actual: 4-13.

2025: Cleveland Browns. Predicted: 4.5 wins. Actual: 5-12.

The point here isn’t to be rain on preseason optimism. It’s to be real about what this rebuild is up against this first season. Tanking? They won’t tank. But there’s so many built-in issues stemming from the dead-cap money and talent issues you have to understand what this season is about.

It’s not about winning.

It’s about getting to the next off-season with some answers.