Fluid Thoughts for UFC Sacramento

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

In case you miss hearing me podcast, I have the privilege to be invited onto two people’s podcasts this week to breakdown this card.

I did a show focusing more in-depth on a few key matchups with my dudes VB Picks and Ramon:

And I did an early week show with my man Clint from Die Hard MMA covering the whole card from top to bottom here (though some of my takes may have milded or adjusted since more tape study to be sure to check my takes/picks below!):

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Sac Town features some classic middleweight parody with a matchup between Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues.

Affectionately referred to as “HOBOCOP” by myself and many, Rodrigues packs heat in multiple ways.

Should Hobocop manage to follow the blueprint laid out by previous Hernandez opponents by selling out hard to the body, then this fight could be over faster than a date night that get’s crashed by Clarence Boddicker.

The potential problem, however, is that if Hobocop doesn’t get the finish early, then his already suspect output (due to his inability to throw strikes below an 8/10 power level), coupled with Hernandez’s patented breakneck pressure, could prove disastrous for the Brazilian.

More importantly, something I failed to mention in my in-depth breakdown over at MMAJunkie.com (that I, of course, always recommend you check to both get more detailed information and to support your boy) is that, when watching back Hobocop’s fights, I noticed that basically anyone who wanted to clinch him or push him to the cage was able to do so with not much resistance.

Don’t get me wrong: Hobocop has been able to maintain a solid takedown defense rate on paper and shows some of the solid wrestling fundamentals and first-layer defenses that expect from his background when watching his tape, but letting someone like Hernandez work in his preferred office space is not exactly the best idea in the world.

Hernandez may be an inferior athlete and wrestler on paper, but Northern California native is easily the most willing wrestler (and high-paced fighter) that Hobocop has had to face in the UFC.

So, unless he’s able to hurt Hernandez out of the gate with his best Sampson from “The Bone Temple” impersonation, then I suspect that Hernandez can survive the storms and pull away down the stretch.

Dan Tom@DanTomMMA

Seriously tho, how wild is it that Gregory Rodrigues was the body double for the Alpha Zombie in 28 YEARS LATER #UFC322

Dan Tom @DanTomMMA

HOBOCOP time… #UFC322

2:06 AM · Nov 16, 2025 · 11.2K Views

4 Replies · 3 Reposts · 25 Likes

My exposure on the Under 3.5 makes me a little nervous, but I have a hard time not seeing this fight being a stylistically violent affair as I could even see Hernandez being the one to finish things on the feet early considering Hobocop’s suspect off-switch on this chin, as well as his past upset losses opposite quick surprising shots (that I suspect will be extra potent if his circuits are being overloaded with expected takedown looks).

I have fight ends by KO as a potential bonus/hedge in my Trixie cycle and had to sprinkle on Hernandez’s mandatory round 2, 3 and 4 fliers (despite finishing Michel Pereira in rd 5 in a fight that was basically over in rd 2, but I digress). I will also look to be betting Hernandez live whether I’m up or in need of a push into profit margins.

Quick thoughts:

If you’re wondering why this section is next and not the co-main event it’s because the co-main event is a sloppy heavyweight affair.

And though Serghei Spivac is a live dog who I hope wins, I suspect that his streak of getting spooked and/or beaten by superior athletes continues against the untrustworthy Vitor Petrino.

Petrino by knockout or Spivac ITD are attractive props by degenerate standards on paper, but this could be a sneaky staring contest that sees counter jabs by Spivac vs. big swinging moments by the Brazilian. Nightmare fight to predict, much less have money on.

One underdog I did pick (and partially play if you count round robin exposure) is Kennedy Nzechukwu.

Affectionately referred to on the internet by The MMA Analysis podcast as the “Kenny Nunchucks,” Nzechukwu is also a difficult fighter to trust. But on the other hand, so is his opponent, the “BIG MEAL” Shamil Gaziev (shoutout to Chronic Combat Conversations for that nickname).

Dan Tom@DanTomMMA

I don’t know what’s more 🤯 in this trifecta: • the fact that Dagestan has a national volleyball team • the fact that Gaziev was on said team • or the fact that Abdul Manap was scouting fighters from this team …either way, I need an AI Top Gun reenactment of this scene

10:31 AM · Feb 1, 2025 · 12.3K Views

3 Replies · 8 Reposts · 52 Likes

It’s hard not to be a fan of a guy built like Gaziev, but his face-first defense seems primed for a southpaw right hook from Nzechukwu. And though he’s the better grappler on paper, I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a hurt or gassed Gaziev shooting headfirst into his opponent’s underrated guillotine.

I was tempted to take a standard unit stab a favorite-turned-underdog in Nzechukwu, but instead figured why not save some unit exposure (pause) and throw his main win condition of inside the distance into my round round robin (see the logic there for those giving me shit on both my round robins and bets? but I digress).

I also believe that Stan Dorsainvil could be live off the tape I watched on him, but it’s ultimately hard to lay money on a short-notice debutant no matter how good or how of shape they may or may not be in. I ultimately picked the more proven product in Young (who is also betting on himself extra this fight by fighting out his UFC contract), but I still stand by what I said on the Die Hard MMA podcast earlier this week in regards to Dorsainvil +3.5 pts being the play I’d go with.

Lastly, but not leastly, is a fight that has now closed in at pick’em prices between Nasrat Haqparast and Chris Padilla.

*EDIT (8/21): After seeing Haqparast dip to +100 at one of my off-shore books, I had to fire as I’m a man of my word. Also, for as trepidatious as I am about my bad luck and horrid run, I’d argue that the MMA gambling space as a majority are the ones who should be cruising for a bruising with the blatant disregard of Haq and the easy-to-argue overhyping of Padilla, but we’ll see. I am the ultimate mush, after all.

[original write-up picks back up here']

Padilla was definitely the public dog of the week, but now I’m curious to see if the line will actually flip by fight time. I would still argue that Haqparast is now the value side in a buy-low sense at -115, and honestly would feel compelled to play him out of principle if he inches any closer to even odds.

Say what you will about his last performance or the kind scorecards that should’ve went against him, Haqparast has proven that he can beat more skilled and athletic pressure fighters like Esteban Ribovics. I also liked that Haqparast took the appropriate time one should from a devastating knockout defeat, as he’s at the perfect experience level to take decent breaks and still come back sharp.

Aside from Padilla’s lone UFC-level southpaw loss also being his lone knockout loss, I suspect that the American struggles against southpaw shot selections. Add in the fact that Haqparast (the more experienced and proven party) will have the larger octagon to play his out-fighting striking style, and I see Padilla’s patented clinch opportunities being fewer and far between.

Padilla rd 3/dec is a great bet if you like that side as I’ll want some rd 3 Padilla exposure in a round robin due to that being a traditionally tough round for Haqparast and a strong one for Padilla, but I’m ultimately sticking to my Haqparast pick and am very tempted to fire on his money line.

• Roman Dolidze, who faces Renier de Ridder, is officially 2-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Kyle Dukakis, Marvin Vettori; Losses: Marvin Vettori).

• Jiesla Chaves, who faces Carli Judice, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

• Shamil “The Big Meal” Gaziev, who faces Kennedy Nzechukwu, is officially 1-0 opposte UFC-level southpaws (beating Thomas “Jefferson” Peterson).

• Chris Padilla, who faces Nasrat Haqparast, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (getting TKO’d by Jason Gonzalez on the regional scene).

• Wes Schultz, who faces Jackson McVey, is technically 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws seeing how he has a win over McVey in the amateurs.

• Hernandez

• Petrino

• RDR

• Jones

• Judice

• Wint

• Douglas

• Nzechukwu

• Haqparast

• Barbosa

• Young

• McVey

• Dyer

• Parlay: Dyer, Douglas, Judice, Fluffy-Hobocop U 3.5 = +158 (1.5-U)

• RDR-Dolidze O 2.5 -135 (1.35-U)

• Jones rd 3/dec -105 (1.05-U)

• Dyer rd 3/dec +125 (1-U)

• Haqparast +100 (1-U)

• Hernandez rd 2 +650, rd 3 +800, rd 4 +1200 (.33-U each)

• Trixie cycle: McVey sub +400, Judice dec +100, Fluffy-Hobocop ends KO = +1700 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Dyer rd 3 +550, Padilla rd 3 +1400, Nunchuks ITD +175, Judice rd 3 +750, Jones-Mederos ends rd 2 +450 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +1253384)

*BETTING NOTES: Despite an epicly bad betting slate last week that basically had me done (as well as swatting off shit takes from betting bros abroad), I decided to cut back down to my usual average unit exposure which is less than half of what I put up last week. 4-leg parlays doesn’t exactly spell out a ‘smart bounce-back strategy,’ but this week has the classic trap setup of heavy chalk that we would be much more confident in hitting if only we didn’t see similar layouts crash and burn just the week prior. For that reason, I’m ignoring the fakeout from the MMA gods and pushing forward (while still having straight plays on 3/4 of the parlay legs that payback most of the parlay exposure with a single hit). I also layered potential hedges and bonuses with my round robin/Trixie/hot round selections, but I’m sure all this explanation will be all for not as most people don’t read this, don’t care, and will still hit me with contradictory advice when I inevitably still lose. Sigh. But as far as alternate round robins or go, I’ll likely forgo a Trixie over the counter given the lack of options I have over the counter, as I’ll instead slot McVey sub in for Jones-Mederos ends rd 2 and will likely just go Nunchuks ML instead the ITD that won’t be available at my local book. Good luck and you’re welcome for all the uncredited fades.