Fluid Thoughts for UFC Freedom 250

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

And in case, for whatever reason, you’re one of 12 people who miss hearing me breaking down fights on the regular, I was lucky enough to be invited to join a panel of amazing analysts and people I’m grateful to still call friends, Miguel Class (whose work is well worth supporting via his Patreon), Dan Albert (who I highly recommend subscribing to his Substack on here), Ryan Wagner (whose high quality work is worth following and supporting on his website), and my dude and former co-host Feno (who you can find and support on his YouTube channel, amongst other places).

I was also supposed to be on one of my favorite betting shows this week, but that sadly fell through at the 11th hour (which is probably for the better since I’m cancer to views and vibes alike in the MMA gambling community), but hopefully I can help quench the thirst of the handful from that side of the fence that still fuck with me with what I can offer here.

Main event thoughts:

The main event at the White House features a lightweight title unification fight between reigning champ Ilia Topuria and interim title-holder Justin Gaethje.

I wrote about each fighter’s game much more in my usual in-depth breakdowns (that sadly don’t drop until later in the week) via MMAJunkie that I always encourage you guys to check out or share despite their unfavorable release times (out of my hands, unfortunately, but I hear your complaints and know they come from a good place).

Aside from obviously picking the undefeated pound-for-pound great in Topuria to win, I’m hoping the sitting champion takes the path of least resistance a la his underrated grappling game should it be presented to him.

But regardless of the method Topuria chooses, I suspect this one will be over sooner rather than later.

Dan Tom@DanTomMMA

Holloway came into the Topuria fight with solid ideas, not the least of which being his choice to use a rear-hand parry to help shut down Topuria’s crucial lead hand. However, Topuria made his own read, knowing his right would be there anytime he could draw it out/get around it:

8:02 AM · Jun 24, 2025 · 99.9K Views

9 Replies · 23 Reposts · 456 Likes

Gaethje, who has been seen sporting some thick-framed glasses outside of his cage-fighting career some time, has always been more of a tactile and sensory striker due to said vision issues. For that reason, fighters with solid counters and level/speed changes have wreaked havoc on Gaethje in both victory and defeat.

And with the natural deterioration that comes with age and miles alike, the holes in Gaethje’s game have only become even more apparent as the American has quietly dropped 7 of his last 8 first rounds (something you can’t afford to do against the likes of Topuria).

As you’ll see below, I got some heavy exposure on fighters and their Unders, and Topuria is among top the list.

Co-main event thoughts:

In what feels like the hardest call for all this weekend, Alex Pereira will be moving up to heavyweight to take on Ciryl Gane for the interim UFC heavyweight title.

The heavyweight title remains one of the most frustrating follows for those familiar with the UFC and it’s history of failing to negotiate with accoladed champions that date back to Randy Couture and are still present with the fallouts between Francis Ngannou, Jon Jones and Dana White. But I digress.

This is another fight that I covered in-depth via my breakdowns over at MMAJunkie that should drop Friday (as I’ll, as always, update here as well with embedded links when I can).

But this is basically a fight where I’m forced to pick a winner between two fighters that, particularly in this situation, are hard to trust. I try not to put too much into looks or pre-fight padwork, but I’m not sure I’m liking what I’m seeing or feeling from the Pereira side of the equation, as this feels like a classic letdown spot.

But with ‘letdown’ being Gane’s middle name (unlike his nickname, “Bon Gamin,” which is French for ‘Boner Jams), no shenanigans are off the table for this contest.

In fact, I believe that this fight has the propensity to get even stupider should Gane pursue the takedowns that I suspect he will be going for this Sunday. For that reason, I believe that – outside of a shot on everyone’s favorite in Pereira – the Overs and total takedown props might be the most sensible looks for this fight.

I took the over when it was still within striking range at -140, but I genuinely can’t say that I recommend playing it at the higher prices that are out there now. I’m probably falling into the classic analyst trap of siding with more proven products when things go sketchy, but I’m officially picking Gane by decision and praying I’m wrong as this is the first time I’m picking against Pereira and feel terrible for it as a huge fan of his.

Quick thoughts:

Despite this card lacking underdogs that fit more of our tastes, I’m find myself siding toward Kyle Dukakis.

But never-ending obscure film and political references aside, I do genuinely believe that Daukaus is a live dog opposite Bo Nickal.

As someone who successfully faded Nickal opposite a lanky and awkward southpaw who can grapple in the past, it’s hard not to take a shot when getting a slightly more technical version of that archetype.

I covered some of the context to Daukaus’ lone southpaw loss/last loss to Eryk Anders in the podcast linked above, but I’m not sure that Nickal can recreate those kind of conditions outside of landing another head kick (which will be much harder in a closed-stance matchup that features a much more active and skilled striker in Daukaus).

I was hoping for closer to 3-1 odds for a bet on Daukaus given the popularity of Nickal in what is a perceived smash spot for many, so I was happy to take Daukaus’ points handicap prop instead at +155 and throw his sub in a round robin, as I could see him stinging Nickal on the feet and forcing a shot into “The Darce Knight’s” specialized kill zone.

Although I’m not officially picking this next underdog, the public dog of the week is clearly my guy, the “Cream Machine,” Steve Garcia.

Although Garcia was my 2024 under-the-radar Fighter of the Year for MMAJunkie, I suspect that this fight with Diego Lopes is awfully near the ceiling for the type of fighter whom aforementioned award is typically given to (as we saw this recently with my 2025 under-the-radar selection in Melquizael Costa when he met Arnold Allen).

Don’t get me wrong: Garcia is a live dog and the odds are close for a reason, but I believe that Lopes’ opportunistic skills and insane durability will, once again, bail him out of trouble.

Derrick Lewis, both as a heavyweight and himself, is also a live dog that I’d be remiss not to mention here.

And though I’ve taken unpopular picks on Lewis opposite wrestlers before (like I did when he fought Curtis Blaydes), “The Black Beast” has shown a steady but sure deterioration in his ability to both stage comebacks and beat off grapplers – something he’s traditionally/ironically excelled at.

If Lewis does win now, it’s usually early (hence most of my exposure on the under for this fight).

I’m a traditional hater of unders of all types, especially 1.5’s for heavyweights. However, this is a card full of fights that I have a hard time seeing go long.

I threw in some Josh Hokit round two and round three 2-leggers that are paired with Mauricio Ruffy’s finish props as a somewhat cost-effective way to catch/recoup some cash should this fight drift Over, but I’m hoping I either don’t need it or bonus in the sweet spot of round 2 (as I put both Hokit and Ruffy rd 2 fliers in my round robin as attempts to either hedge or hopefully bonus with the Under 1.5 exposure).

I sadly don’t think that Michael Chandler is a very live dog this weekend, but I’ll be writing more about that fight and explaining my thought process and bets behind it in my feature over at Action Network that drops on fight day with up to date odds.

And though I sadly don’t think Aiemann Zahabi is a very live dog this weekend, I might as well touch on that fight since that’s the only one I’ve yet to talk about in this article.

Not only do I kinda hope I’m wrong about my prediction on this fight, but I also hope that Donald Trump doesn’t try and recreate one of my favorite episodes of “It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia” by making Zahabi wear the same garb that Rickety Cricket had to wrestle in (though Zahabi throwing sand in Sean O’Malley’s eyes wouldn’t be the worst tactic in the world).

But before I get cancelled for these outdated mid-00 American references, let me just seriously say that Zahabi is someone I’ve hung out and had dinner with and seems like a genuinely sweet human being whom I will always root for in some form or fashion.

That said, you gotta separate those feelings when betting as I couldn’t help but sprinkle small on O’Malley’s late round props given that this should be a fairly stylistically favorable fight for him (famous last words).

• Diego Lopes, who faces Steve Garcia, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Gavin Tucker).

• Kyle Daukaus, who faces Bo Nickal, is officially 2-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Gerald Meerschaert, Jamie Pickett; Losses: Eryk Anders).

• Bo Nickal, who faces Kyle Daukaus, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Jamie Pickett; Losses: Renier de Ridder).

• Alex Pereira, who faces a southpaw-primary stance-switcher in Ciryl Gane, is officially 3-1 opposite dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, Khalil Rountree Jr.; Losses: Magomed Anakalaev).

• Topuria

• Gane : (

• O’Malley (aka Ziggy Sobotka)

• Hokit

• Ruffy

• Dukakis

• Lopes

• Parlay: Hokit-Lewis U 1.5, Topuria = -125 (2.5-U)

• SGP: Ruffy/U 1.5 = -110 (2-U)

• SGP: Topuria/U 1.5 = +102 (1.5-U)

• Pereira-Gane O 2.5 -140 (1.4-U)

• Gane Over 1.5 TDs -110 (1.10-U), Pereira O O.5 TDs +550 (.2-U)

• Dukakis 3.5 pts +155 (1-U)

• Ruffy KO/Hokit rd 2 = +650 (.3-U), Ruffy KO/Hokit rd 3 = +1195 (.2-U)

• Lewis KO/Topuria ITD = +470 (.2-U)

• O’Malley rd 2 +700 (.25-U), rd 3 +1000 (.17-U)

• Trixie cycle: O’Malley KO +175, Gane dec +275, Topuria sub +400 = +5056 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Lopes sub +325, Dukakis sub +600, Ruffy rd 2 +350, Hokit rd 2 +450, Topuria sub +400 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .03-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +368056)

BETTING NOTES: *Edit! (6/13): So I lied below. Perhaps I’m getting overtaken by the political brouhaha, but I found a cycle I liked and decided to have some fun and spread some exposure around by having small exposure on fighters like Gane and O’Malley to win in some of their more likely outcomes. I also can’t help but think that we’ll all feel stupid for not sprinkling on Lewis in this spot if he wins given how serious he appears to be taking this, so I threw a super small .2 sprinkle on him parlayed with Topuria ITD for over a Unit return if it hits. Cross coverage everywhere with proper sizing (I hope).

^ (6/11): Between my official selections being playable basically everywhere to the fact that there’s only seven fights on the card, there’s no alternate round robins or need to for me force any cycles or trixie’s. I will be keeping an eye on live markets given the volatility of the outdoor event but its still risky regardless for a ‘pick a side and ride’ type slate. Good luck with whatever you end up on.