Fluid Thoughts for UFC Baku

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

And in case you still miss me in audio form for whatever reason, I was lucky enough to be invited on “The Gambler’s Perspective” again to chat with my guys Nick Kalikas and Gianni The Greek. Check out their weekly show if you haven’t already!

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Baku features a lightweight showdown between Rafael Fiziev and Manuel Torres.

I wrote about this fight more in-depth in my usual main event breakdown via MMAJunkie.com, so I encourage you to check that out for more technical notes on each of these fighters’ games.

But as far picks and plays go, my stubborn ass, as usual, is siding with the more proven and technical product over the MMA gambling twitter flavor of the month whose seldom ever seen a second round in his career.

Despite the UFC discontinuing their official Latin American developmental program years ago, the matchmakers are still pushing certain products so hard they’re arguably rushing them to market. Now Torres, who is quietly 31-years-old, is not necessarily new to the promotion, as the Team Entram product has yet to develop much of a sample size given both the length of his fights and the context of his resume.

The sad part is that Torres, who is spookily accurate counter puncher despite his wildman sensibilities, can totally come in here and knock out Fiziev in a first-round firefight that teaches us absolutely nothing (aside from how washed Fiziev is, of course).

But between Fiziev’s technical edge to the fact that he’s also mixing in more takedowns into his repertoire, I can’t help but side with the buy-low favorite in Fiziev to find the gaping holes in Torres’ defense – or lack thereof.

I know that live betting makes sense if you like Fiziev given that his opponent in a traditional first round or bust fighter, but Torres is also so wild and defensively vulnerable that it could make for a situation that leaves you little to no chance to get in live.

That said, I suspect that slower starts on each side, coupled with the previously-mentioned grappling, could help this fight get into the second frame as I also added “fight ends in Round 2” in my round robin below.

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event in Baku features one of three middleweight features on the main card (thanks Mick Maynard) as Sharaputin Magomedov takes on Michel “Demolidor” Pereira.

Despite having a nickname that sounds like something you’d purchase from a condom dispenser in the men’s restroom of a 90’s dive bar, Pereira hasn’t necessarily been known to engage with other men safely.

Although he’s been training in my backyard of Xtreme Couture for the past handful of fight camps and is constantly posting wild sparring sessions with Sean Strickland, Pereira (as well as Strickland for that matter) have shown that, for better or worse, their styles in social clips aren’t exactly fair representations of how they fight.

Sure, Pereira used to lean much more heavily into the showman gimmick when he first arrived in the octagon, but – whether it was the brutal loss to Anthony Hernandez or his nearly 50-fight career – the Brazilian has not looked at all himself in recent outings.

Whereas Magomedov, despite my dislike of his style and swag, has shown real toughness and a willingness to improve and attempt to take MMA seriously (he’s even been making marked efforts to improve his grappling, actively pursuing competitions between fights).

It’s not a confident pick as I’m still teetering on throwing Magomedov into a parlay (I know, I can’t believe what I’m typing either), but don’t be surprised if I have him as a leg in something seeing as how I’m still looking for a way to incorporate Ikram Aliskerov’s money line into something in case my submission/points double-chance play falls through.

A weird and contentious decision is the most likely outcome, but I think that Pereira, even on a good day, still largely gives Magomedov the fight he wants as I officially picked the one-eyed Dagestani to win by a semi-surprising knockout.

Quick thoughts:

Continuing to break betting trends and self-imposed rules alike, I ended stepping into an alternate universe to find myself on the same side as Charles Johnson.

Despite my record of never cashing a bet in a Charles Johnson fight, I can’t deny the value on him here opposite Asu Almabayev.

Akin to Johnson, Almabayev has also been a fighter I’ve traditionally faded given both his over-inflation and the fact that his resume benefits from being the recipient of some incredibly kind scorecards and momentum-swinging moments to boot. But with Johnson arguably being 3-11 in the UFC if you take away 2 crazy comebacks and 3 insanely kind scorecards, I won’t lean into alternate reality records too hard here.

However, from a stylistic perspective, I believe that Almabayev’s propensity to handicap his game by fighting off the backfoot could really hurt him against a large and long dynamic athlete who can sprawl and scramble. In fact, I believe that Johnson has been steadily improving his takedown defense since his initial struggles in his earlier UFC career.

I also can’t help but notice that Almabayez still lacks setups for his shots and still gets his chin upright and out of position with even the slightest striking pressure. I would’ve played it safer with a points handicap shot on Johnson (but, of course, the one house that I have that offers those props tends to conveniently offer points props for literally every fight but the one I’m targeting).

So instead, I opted for the fat money line for the value. I’ve quietly conquered longstanding hurdles in the form of cashing crazy round props to winning in thought-to-be cursed cities this year, so why not attempt to finally take down my white whale of actually cashing something in a Charles Johnson fight?

The next underdog I like is Mathues Camilo.

In case you missed it, I linked my in-person interview with Camilo via Home of Fight above as any support for my growing interview work is appreciated. But as far as the fight goes, I can honestly say that I believe that Camilo is live despite my obvious bias given where he trains (as well the fact that I had Camilo in my Prospects To Watch column via MMAJunkie.com all the way back in 2023).

Although Sadykhov is the more experienced and fleshed out fighter who deserves to be favored, the savvy southpaw has a habit of fighting on incredibly thin margins, which is what also makes his fights so exciting. However, the margins have appeared to be wearing even thinner on Sadykhov and his action-heavy style as of late – making Camilo a very lively dog for as long as he’s standing.

But with Camilo smartly incorporating more takedowns into recent fights and camps alike, I suspect that the Nova Uniao black belt may have some surprises in store for Sadykhov. That said, there’s no denying that Camilo will be in sketchy territory if he exerts a lot of energy early and ends up in a dogfight with Sadykhov late.

For that reason, I went with Camilo’s early alternate round props and the over on his total takedowns that hopefully coverd regardless of the result.

Despite technically opening as the favorite, I now find myself picking an underdog in Abus Magomedov. Even though I initially leaned toward Michal Olekseijczuk earlier in the week, this fight has all signs of a trap fight (except that the numbers are simultaneously low and not great).

I ended up picking Magomedov by sub, but this is a stay away for me.

Speaking of dogs I picked but didn’t play, Andrey Pulyaev makes my slate this week.

Aside from not being a big believer in Nursulton Ruziboev (who made yet another camp change ahead of this fight), Pulyaev’s stupid toughness and southpaw sensibilities could prove some problems to Ruziboev given their size parity. Despite standing at 1-1 against dedicated UFC-level lefties, Ruziboev looks clearly less comfortable fighting southpaws, often laying in wait for his one big shot.

If said shot doesn’t come to fruition against one of the few fighters who can match him in length, then I see Ruziboev losing his luster and confidence over three frames for a decision loss.

Lastly but not leastly, I reluctantly picked Eric Nolan as an underdog opposite the hometown enhancement talent eater in Farman Hasanov.

Perhaps its my newfound CFFC bias, but Nolan, despite his record, looks more put together as a fighter at this point in their careers (at least from the limited footage I was able to watch on Hasanov). Hasanov looks good getting off the bus, but his fights (though not quite as suspect as Tahir Abdullayev’s sample size) were not impressive to say the least. It’s a stay away for me.

• Matheus Camilo, who faces Nazim Sadykhov, is officially 0-0 opposite dedicated UFC-level southpaws (but did show solid bodywork looks on the feet in an open stance matchup against a stance-switcher in Gabe Green).

• Abus Magomedov, who faces Michal Oleksiejczuk, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Caio Borralho).

• Nursulton Ruziboev, who faces Andrey Pulyaev, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Win: Eric McConjugal; Loss: Joaquin Buckley).

• Danil Donchenko, who takes on short-notice newcomer Theodor Berggren, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

• Fiziev

• S. Magomedov

• Camilo

• Johnson

• Aliskerov

• A. Magomedov

• Nolan

• Yakhyaev

• Pulyaev

• Reyes

• Donchenko

• Matsumoto

• Nascimento

• Parlay: Donchenko, Aliskerov, S. Magomedov +100 (2-U)

• Fiziev -105 (1.7-U)

• Matsumoto pts/sub -135 (1.35-U)

• Aliskerov pts/sub +200 (1-U)

• Johnson +245 (1-U)

• Camilo O 1.5 TDs +100 (1-U)

• Camilo rd 1, 2 +380 (.55-U)

• Reyes/Donchenko rd 2 +531 (.35-U), Reyes/Donchenko rd 3 +976 (.2-U)

• Aliskerov by kimura +2500 (.2-U)

• Trixie cycle: Ruzi-Puly goes the distance +120, Aliskerov sub +375, Fiziev KO +150 = +20513 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Matsumoto sub +500, Aliskerov sub +375, Johnson ITD +650, Camilo ITD +325, Fiziev-Torres ends rd 2 +300 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .02-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +363275)

• Stanford

• Valdez

• Sopko

• Gocashvili

• Fischer

• Parlay: Gocashvili/Sopko = +104 (1-U)

• Valdez +110 (1-U)

• Fischer -110 (1.10-U)

*BETTING NOTES: I didn’t play CFFC last week due the lack of available lines, but I was able to find some this week via BetOnline and ended up firing. As far as alternate UFC round robin legs go for houses that don’t offer stuff like ITD props, I’ll probably go with Camilo by sub (despite a KO also being on the table for him) and Johnson by KO (despite his front chokes being live due to Almabayev’s habit of giving his head and neck on takedowns). May also double down with Fiziev by KO instead of ends Round 2 for the final leg.

*EDIT (6/27): I ended up doing everything I said I was gonna do above, as well as ended up adding 1 big parlay and 2 little fun ones. Sucks I lost (1/2) at CFFC but hopefully I can make it up with UFC. Good Luck.

Still pondering a parlay to plug (if any) since I still want to money line exposure on Aliskerov. Good luck with whatever you end up on.