Fluid Thoughts for UFC Abu Dhabi

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

And if you miss hearing my voice for whatever reason, my guy Dave Ross was kind enough to invite me on his VSIN betting show, “First Strike,” to break down some of the fights we like from a betting perspective. Feel free to check out the show I was on via the YouTube clip below.

Main event thoughts:

Like I’ve been saying for years now, the two words I use most as someone who writes about the UFC is “impromptu” and “rematch.”

Well, for this weekend’s warlord fiesta in the Middle East, the UFC – to the pain of the matchmakers – were forced to pull apart a meaningless rematch between Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov in order to deliver an impromptu opponent for another former champ in Magomed Ankalaev.

Moving past my urge to make any ‘getting passed around’ jokes that reveal my awful sense of humor, Guskov, to his credit, was quite excited to raise his hand in order to test himself atop the division.

That said, I can’t say I like Guskov’s chances opposite the Dagestani Stipe Miocic doppelgänger.

Dan Tom@DanTomMMA

Dagestani Stipe fight week

11:13 PM · Mar 3, 2025 · 1.68K Views

1 Reply · 3 Reposts · 20 Likes

The fact that Guskov was preparing for a fight the following week aside, the Uzbekistani has never been scheduled for five rounds before and shows to flag in three-rounders. Furthermore, the lone southpaw sample on Guskov’s UFC record is a deceptive one considering that the “Hitman” looked lost as far as distancing goes and offered even less range weapons than usual (as seen in the southpaw report provided below).

Dan Tom@DanTomMMA

🧵 Bogdan Guskov, who faces Magomed Ankalaev at #UFCAbuDhabi, is 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws, beating Billy Elekana on short notice. Although Guskov won, he offered even less range weapons than usual, showing trouble with distances in open-stance affairs. #TheSouthpawReport

12:00 AM · Jul 23, 2026 · 1.72K Views

3 Reposts · 16 Likes

However, with Ankalaev being tricky to forecast even when he’s winning, predicting an exact outcome could be trickier than some may suspect.

As for me, I’ll try not to overthink things (or get my hopes up that Ankalaev does the smart thing and wrestles) and will instead bank on Guskov either eventually succumbing to Ankalaev’s steady pressure or ends up walking his way into a counter hook that nukes him.

The official pick is Ankalaev by third-round TKO, as I may even throw Ank rd 3 in my round robin should I need a leg. As far as parlays go, I like anything from Ank’s money line, Fight does’t go, to even Ank ITD – but I would caution the Under 2.5 given Ank’s uncanny ability to drag out fights.

If you want more technical analysis, you can check out my usual in-depth breakdown on the main event via MMAJunkie.

Co-main event thoughts:

Between my Tourette’s wanting to shout “TEMI! TEMIRO! LIB-LAU!” every time I see the name Ramazan Temirov, to the Jimmy coded-ness of Steve Erceg, the co-main event essentially feels like MMA’s version of Southpark’s legendary cripple fight (apologies if the dated reference/wording there offends!).

But my weird expressions of nostalgic endearment aside, this is legitimately the fight that excites me most on this card (with Ismail Bonfim vs. Axel Foley Sola up there as well).

I’ll be covering this fight more in-depth from a betting perspective via The Action Network (which I’ll link here once it drops), but I basically feel like this is classic battle between a big puncher who is a big threat early and a tough technician who can pour things on late.

Temirov, who is obviously the big puncher in this equation, gave me a classic Leonard Di Caprio from “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood” meme moment when seeing him spark out C.J. Vergara in similar fashion to how Kai Kara-France caught Erceg a couple years ago.

For that reason, I don’t blame anyone taking a flier on Temirov given that this is one of the only playable money line matchups on the card. But with the plus money no longer being available on that side, I suggest looking Temirov’s finish props (as I’m currently eyeing his rd 1 prop at +550 as a potential hedge).

If you like Erceg like I do, you can either wait to see if he fully gets tilted to plus money or look to bet him live in round 1 if he shows to ability to not get too shaken or stirred by the shots he’ll likely be eating early.

But between not wanting to copout with just a live bet suggestion to me being back home in Hawaii for this already early card and likely unable to live bet (I know, I didn’t think I was gonna get back home this year but I’m hustling back for a couple days on some standby tickets I was hooked up with – but I digress.), I ended up laying some alternate round props on Erceg for plus money that’s listed below.

I may get cheeky with the official round robin buy taking fight ends in split decision as a potential hedge or bonus, with Temirov rd 1 also being a viable option if I don’t sprinkle on that small straight up.

Quick thoughts:

Although I’ve yet to officially pick any dogs as of this writing, there’s no denying that Mike Davis is the apple of everyone’s eye this week.

From his real potential to the perceived race science that the majority of MMA cappers apply when trying to project ceilings (with little to no sense of self awareness or irony, mind you), Davis seems to unfortunately fall into the grand category of ‘could’ve been talent’ that keeps falling short of what are arguably too highly-set bars.

Again, to both Davis and his supporters’ credit, the native New Yorker has shown real promise in almost all phases of the fight game since his memorable Contender Series showdown with Sodiq Yusuff way back in 2018.

But with Davis barely averaging one fight a year to some of the inconsistent performances he’s turned in over the years, it becomes difficult to assess just where the hell this kid is at.

At this best, he should be able to, at the very least, stymie a decent amount of Aliev’s grappling offense while holding a more than solid striking edge on the feet. But between Aliev’s steady/potential improvements and the fact that this fight is taking place in the Middle East (a place where Davis was apparently poisoned by paint fumes the last time is was in these parts), it’s big-time buyer beware in a fight I’ll likely be avoiding altogether.

Despite Thomas Jefferson Peterson being a bit livelier than I initially credited for, he’s ultimately the kind of fighter who appears to be allergic to opportunists. And say what you will about Valter Walker and his potential limitations, “The Clean Monster” demonstrates the cheat code the helps even the most mid fighter clear the bulk of the big guy divisions—and that cheat code is called submission grappling.

For that reason, I’ll likely be picking Walker but this is a dog or pass spot from a betting perspective (as Peterson by decision wouldn’t be the craziest flier if you’re looking for a round robin leg… hell. I might).

Another, at least in my opinion, dog or pass situation with a stupid decision number attached is Wellington Turman and his fight with Islam Dulatov.

I know that Dulatov is the biggest odds-on favorite of the entire card, but his unproven, first-round-or-bust styling is an archetype we’ve seen go cruising for a bruising time and time again in this game.

Should Turman’s notorious chin hold up (a notorious chin despite only getting knocked out twice in a twelve year career, mind you), then the Brazilian has more than enough gas and grit to grind out Dulatov with this superior grappling and on-paper experience.

And though I could tell you that I heard good things about Turman in the gym during the lead-up to his comeback, this is ultimately a volatile fist fight where you’re giving me nearly 7-1 odds on the more proven product.

I don’t know if I have enough balls to make Turman my official pick, but I do believe that you don’t owe anyone an explanaition for sprinkling on capable dogs at these odds (as I may throw Turman’s money line or decision prop in my round robin).

Despite officially picking Magomed Zaynukov (aka “John Pork") to win, I believe that Damian Rzepecki can put some serious respect on his name by making this fight closer than the current lines indicate

John Pork’s origin story:

A southpaw-primary stance-switcher who cross trains between everywhere from Kill Cliff FC to Ilia Topuria’s team, Rzepecki is a tough and scrappy fighter with well-rounded skills and a high output of offense.

I still suspect that Zaynukov’s muay Thai shot selection and swagger from both long and clinch ranges will help him control a large part of the action, but I could see this fight getting away from the Russian early and subsequently leading to a rogue scorecard that doesn’t follow the so-called script.

For that reason, I believe that split decision props are worth a look if you’re not keen on committing to a money line.

• Bogdan Guskov, who faces Magomed Ankalaev, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating a short-notice Billy Elekana).

• Magomed Zaynukov, who faces Damian Rzepecki, is officially 0-0 against UFC-level southpaws.

• Valter Walker, who faces Thomas Peterson, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Kennedy Nzechukwu).

• Ismail Bonfim, who faces Axel Sola, is officially 1-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Terrance McKinney; Losses: Benoit Saint Denis, Nazim Sadykhov).

• Dagestani Stipe (Ankalaev)

• Erceg

• Dulatov

• John Pork (Zaynukov)

• Kuniev

• Vagaev

• Walker

• Jacoby

• Patterson

• Sola

• Tuchalov

• Aliev

• Saddam (Hussien)

• Parlay No. 1: Tuchalov-Rebeiro U 1.5, Patterson, Ank-Gus DGTD +105 (3-U)

• Parlay No. 2: Tuchalov ITD, Patterson ITD, Ank ITD +171 (1-U)

• Parlay No. 3: Saddam, Patty-Ponz won’t start rd 3, Kuniev +138 (2.09-U)

• Erceg rd 3/decision +130 (1-U), *Temirov rd 1 +550 (.3-U)

• Jacoby -151 (1.51-U)

• Sola TKO/Points -150 (1.5-U), rd 2 +550 (.33-U), rd 3 +850 (.17-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Aliev dec -120, Jacoby KO +175, Walker sub +150 = +1160 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Sola rd 3 +800, Rzepecki-Pork split +550, Turman dec +1800, Erceg-Temirov split +425, Ankalaev rd 3 +700 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +4668200)

BETTING NOTES:

*EDIT (7/25): For my alternate round robin, I went with Peterson dec, Jacoby KO, Sola rd 3, Turman dec, Ankalaev rd 3. Lookout for Sola and Erceg as potential live bet spots. Good luck!

I’m not sure if I’m going to add a Trixie Cycle or yet another parlay, so be sure to check back here before fight time. As fas as alternate round robins go for houses that don’t offer split props, I’ll probably feel said spaces with something like Davis ML (depending on how much the No. holds), Jacoby by dec or KO, or maybe even Erceg by sub. Again, check back here to see what I update/lock in. Good luck with whatever you end up on.