There is perhaps no nascent technology more promising than quantum computers. Quantum computers model the world. We live in one. And though their most popular application is cracking prime-factor cryptography, I believe their real value will be in accurately modeling d and f electron orbitals to develop novel materials. Imagine better magnets. Batteries. More energy dense rocket fuel. Metals that don’t corrode. Innovation aside, the geopolitical importance is immense. China is a decade+ ahead of the United States in manufacturing every component of the electromagnetic stack. Catching up is near impossible. Leapfrogging them by developing the manufacturing process for quantum discovered materials...this is the American way. Unfortunately, today progress in quantum computers is largely inscrutable, even to those in the field. To make it more accessible, I’ve built As an illustration, consider progress toward cracking ECC-256 encryption. On March 31, Oratomic published a quantum algorithm that could crack ECC-256 with 10,000 qubits, an OOM efficiency gain. But if you examine progress on the quantum hardware side, you might be surprised to learn the record for error corrected qubits capable of running all the gates necessary to crack ECC-256 is...drumroll....less than ten. So the field is very early.
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