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Macro Musings by Danny D · Jul 22, 2026

Oil: Danger Zone

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Danny Dayan · Macro Musings by Danny D

My last deep dive note on oil was The Oil Conundrum, where I asked why we had not seen the catastrophic prices that all the experts were calling for? By breaking down my model and stress testing it, I helped clients avoid getting too bullish oil at a time when the model was telling us that the dynamics were not as dire as forecasted. It’s time to update the model and take a look at a variety of indicators and see where we are with crude.

From a charts perspective, we have been trading in line with key levels shown here, and just broke above the 87 level, which suggests 90-94 is next resistance. But let’s see what the model suggests after today’s EIA inventory data.

Read the original on dannydayan.substack.com

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