At the time of this writing, “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” has been in theaters for 6 days in Mainland China. And it’s flopping.
In fact, “Project Hail Mary” is beating “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” in China, and it will end up making more money than the Mario film in this particular market.
After 1 week, Mario Galaxy made a little over US$11 Million at the local box office, with estimates now pointing to $23M by the end of its run.
Hail Mary already made more than $30M (in 20 days), and is expected to earn approximately $35M when all is said and done.
Respectable numbers for Mario, but relatively low considering the film will likely reach over $1B globally, and the first one made over $1.3B worldwide. Arguably, it’s a flop in China.
The first Super Mario Movie had a better run in the country (raking in more than $25M), but also failed to become a major hit in China. In that regard, we could consider the sequels’ results predictable and not surprising.
Project Hail Mary on the other hand got a lot of positive word-of-mouth after its debut in China, and that gave it an extra boost in momentum, even expanding its initial box-office estimates.
Let me start by admitting I think the issue is complex and difficult, and I don’t have a perfect answer. Perhaps not even a remotely right one (for both movies).
Super Mario is a very well known IP in the country. It’s recognizable at least. That much is clear. I actually wrote a couple of threads before on Twitter when the first (modern) Super Mario Movie came out trying to explain why it flopped in China back then. You can read them here, and here.
Many people will say Mario games just haven’t been particularly popular in China and that explains it, but I don’t fully agree.
It’s true that from Mario 64 up to the Mario Galaxy titles, the games didn’t have great exposure in China (for many different reasons, but mostly the big console ban), BUT, almost every millennial in the country played or at least saw people playing bootleg versions of Super Mario Bros (NES) during the 90s and early 2000s. It is a generational staple among many millions of people in the nation!
Beyond that, the Switch has been extremely successful and popular in China, with a lot of its gamers (younger and older) being exposed to more recent Mario games available on the console. Bottom line is, Mario as a character is not obscure or niche! In China, or virtually anywhere in the world really.
So, why don’t Mario movies click with Chinese audiences? I think it’s fundamentally a marketing issue.
IMO, the movies should have been better marketed towards millennials, and just have better marketing in general in the Chinese market. Fact is, marketing efforts for the Mario Galaxy Movie have been overall very discreet in the country, and failed to capture people’s attention.
I know it’s easy to just blame marketing, but I honestly can’t think of a better practical/visible reason for this one. It’s hard for me to explain or demonstrate it with data, but as someone living in China, I can use the example of Zootopia 2.
That movie was EVERYWHERE when it debuted in China. Marketing was all over the place! Whether people wanted to watch the movie or not, they would at least be aware of it! And sure enough, the film ended up being a gigantic hit in China, grossing more than US$600M (I’m not saying good marketing alone guarantees box office results, obviously!). Sure, that marketing investment was informed by the success of the first movie in China. It was, presumably, a safe bet.
The same could be said for the Mario Galaxy Movie: the first movie failed to set China on fire, and therefore distributors thought it wouldn’t be wise to invest too much in promoting the sequel. That’s what happened, and why marketing for the second movie was so quiet in China, and why results are even worse than they were with the first movie (which had more marketing).
The movie even debuted during the Qing Ming Holidays by the way, which this year coincided with an extended weekend that gave most people a day off on Monday! Even that didn’t help. It just wasn’t enough...
(Box office data for China provided by reliable tracker Maoyan Pro)
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