The State of the Union is...

Let me say from the outset that I have a love-hate relationship with the annual State of the Union address. I love the pomp, ceremony, and tradition associated with the SOTU, and that the address has its roots in the U.S. Constitution. Specifically, Article II Section 3 states,

[The president] shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient1

On the other hand, I don’t love what these addresses have become in an era of extreme polarization and negative partisanship. The constant applause, the standing and sitting, the attacks from both the president and his opponents in the gallery — while I do appreciate pageantry and tradition, I don’t especially care for partisan theater that has become all too predictable.

Still, as a political science professor, I feel a sense of professional duty and obligation to watch the address. My students will inevitably have questions or comments about the speech, and occasionally media sources will ask for my thoughts on the speech. With this in mind, and despite my schizophrenic relationship with the spectacle, I did watch President Trump’s SOTU last night. And I sent the following observations and takeaways to a journalist who asked for my two cents:

• “It’s striking that the president’s attention to culture war issues tended to center on crimes committed by undocumented immigrants. There were only fleeting references to gender ideology and religion, and no references to abortion.”

• “When Trump said ‘these people are crazy’ about Democrats not condemning gender transitions for minors, he’s highlighting that this is a losing issue for Democrats in the court of public opinion.”

• “This address reminded me more of a campaign rally than a traditional State of the Union, making heavy use of what is sure to be the Republican Party’s messaging ahead of what looks to be a challenging midterm election season.”

• “Presidents can try pointing to positive developments in the economy all they want, but unless people are feeling it in their bank accounts and pocketbooks, all the positives in the world won’t make people change their votes.”

• “President Trump and Republicans would be quite happy if immigration dominated people’s attention during the midterm elections, rather than the state of the economy.”

  • “Trump exudes confidence when talking about immigration that frankly isn’t there when talking about the economy – and Democrats still don’t have a great answer.”

In addition to hitting major themes like the economy and immigration, President Trump also touched on foreign policy (including a potentially forthcoming showdown with Iran) and recognized numerous guests in the gallery. These included athletes, children, and active-duty servicemen and veterans, a couple of whom were awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor in real time. The president also chided Democrats for their refusal to stand and applaud on multiple occasions, including for the mother of Iryna Zarutska, the woman who was stabbed to death by a in North Carolina and became a symbol of the GOP’s campaign against crime in major cities.

Here are more knee-jerk (and lightly edited) reactions:

• POTUS kicks things off with a nod to America250, before pivoting immediately to the “crisis” inherited from the Biden administration and his administration’s “turnaround for the ages”

• He claims “In the last nine months, zero illegal immigrants have been admitted to the United States” – something I’m not sure is possible, or even knowable

• Trump touts the falling price of gas and declining mortgage rates in an effort to paint a pleasant picture of the economy

• The president dusts off the “We’re winning so much, people aren’t going to know what to do with it” line from his campaigns. I’m not so sure it landed in this more formal venue.

• That’s a lot of time to spend on the Team USA hockey, given the stakes of this address as setting a tone for the midterms in 8+ months

• Trump acknowledging guests in the gallery (including a WWII veteran) this early in the address seemed odd

• “All Democrats…voted against these tax cuts. They wanted large scale tax increased to hurt the people instead.” The midterm messaging is officially underway, although it remains to be seen how effective reminding people of previous legislation will be compared to standard pocketbook issues

• Even by Trump’s standards, his going off script gives this SOTU the vibe of a campaign rally. And it’s a bit disorienting, given the setting and pageantry typically associated with SOTU addresses

• About 30 minutes in, we get to the elephant in the room: Tariffs

  • “Everything was going well – and then just four days ago, an unfortunate ruling from the US Supreme Court”

• Trump doubles down on imposing tariffs under additional statutes, claiming “Congressional action will not be necessary”

  • He claims tariffs will one day replace the income tax system, which is quite a claim. Not only would tariffs need to collect far more money than they currently are, but those costs would of course be passed on to consumers. So even if people weren’t taxed, they’d still be paying

• Trump attacks Democrats on their “affordability” messaging for the midterm elections, saying their policies caused the economic turmoil they’re now seeking to tie to his administration

• Critiquing the “Unaffordable Care Act” and highlighting his prescription drug policies, Trump quickly highlighted the administration’s attention to health care

• Multiple times Trump remarked something to the effect of “They stood up, I can’t believe it” whenever Democrats applauded something he said. He clearly wants to point out their opposition to his agenda as much as possible

  • “You should be ashamed of yourself for not standing up” during section on immigration

• Somali fraud in Minnesota gets a shoutout: “This is the kind of corruption that shreds the fabric of a nation”

  • JD Vance is apparently the new fraud czar — congrats, Marco Rubio, for getting a reprieve adding yet another job to your plate2

  • It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump’s emphasis on the amorphous problem of fraud becomes a major part of the GOP’s midterm messaging

• “The only thing standing between Americans and an open border is President Donald J. Trump and Republican patriots in Congress”

• “The only way [Democrats] can get elected is to cheat – and we have to stop it.” Urges the Senate to pass the SAVE Act, though it faces an uphill battle without major reforms to the filibuster (which several Republicans have said they won’t support)

• Charlie Kirk gets a shoutout, being hailed as a martyr and inspiration for increasing religiosity in America. The data, however, tells another story.