If you’re not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when? Don’t fantasize over lump summing the exact bottom wick. You will be too scared to do it on the day. ― James Check (Checkmatey)
Crypto & AI
Can You Wait?
BTC/GLD Bear Markets
Noteworthy
Crypto & AI - One of the most practical (and overlooked) use cases for crypto isn’t speculation, it’s micropayments. We’re now seeing early infrastructure emerge that allows AI agents to transact autonomously.
For example, Coinbase recently introduced tooling that connects large language models directly to crypto wallets, allowing AI systems to generate addresses and execute stablecoin payments. That’s a foundational step toward machines holding and moving money on their own.
On the bitcoin side, developers are building payment rails that allow AI agents to pay for API access using sats over the Lightning Network. Instead of subscriptions or credit cards, an agent can pay fractions of a cent per request, instantly settled.
This is what “robot money” actually looks like. Traditional banking infrastructure was never designed for machines. Opening an account requires human-based KYC. Sending $0.01 is inefficient. Cross-border payments are slow and expensive. Crypto fixes that. With bitcoin (via Lightning) or stablecoins:
Payments settle globally in seconds
Fees can be fractions of a cent
No bank account required
AI agents can operate 24/7
If AI agents are going to buy data, compute power, API calls, media, or human services autonomously, they need native digital money, not ACH, not wires, not card networks. We often talk about bitcoin as digital gold. But Lightning turns bitcoin into digital cash, optimized for small, instant, programmable transactions. The real question isn’t whether humans will use crypto for daily payments. It’s whether machines will.
Can You Wait? - The most difficult part of any bitcoin cycle isn’t the blow-off top. It’s the waiting.
We’ve already seen multiple capitulation events, sharp drawdowns where weak hands are forced out. The events could be based in reality, like a large whale selling. Or theory like the threat of quantum computing. But as on-chain analyst Checkmate writes: we don’t know if we’ve had the capitulation event. We may see more as the bear market drags on.
That doesn’t automatically mean the price must go lower. It means we are in a time test. Markets don’t just test price. They test conviction. If you’re trying to perfectly time the absolute bottom, you’re playing a game of luck. Very few win it. The goal isn’t to buy the exact bottom tick, it’s to accumulate in the zone where long-term value is being repriced. If you can dollar-cost average, do that. Don’t try to be a hero. And don’t capitulate. As Checkmate simplifies it: either you believe bitcoin is going to zero, or you believe it will make new all-time highs again.
If you’re reading this, and you see the continued growth of institutional custody, ETF flows, corporate treasury adoption, and sovereign-level interest, the latter seems more plausible. This is not the time to suddenly construct a bear thesis after a drawdown. It’s a time to zoom out. Here’s another way to think about it:
If long-term holders have largely stopped distributing coins, that investor cohort now has two choices, sit on cash and wait, or begin accumulating again. When supply pressure from that group eases, much of the structural pain is already in the market. Price bottoms are violent and emotional. Recoveries begin quietly. The turn doesn’t announce itself. It simply runs out of sellers.
BTC/GLD Bear Markets - Looking at bitcoin relative to gold tells a story you won’t see in USD price charts alone. Bitcoin peaked against gold in December 2024, and the BTC/Gold ratio has been trending lower since. When marking the low in (BTC/Gold) RSI in past cycles to prior BTC/Gold tops it shows a duration of roughly 14 months. This happened in the phases of 2013–2015, 2017–2019, and 2021–2022. Each of those periods lasted about 14 months and was followed by multi-year uptrends for bitcoin.
Data visualization support by Drew Meisel at bigideadesign.co
As you can see above the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the BTC/Gold ratio is now at historic lows, approximately 14 months later. In bitcoin’s history, this has only happened a handful of times, and in every prior instance, it marked the final stages of the relative bear phase before a major recovery.
Over the past eight years, bitcoin’s annualized return has been roughly 33%, while the S&P 500 and gold returned around 14% per year. That means even holding through bear markets, a bitcoin investment doubles every three years, compared with seven years for SPY or GLD.
Historically, these oversold conditions in the BTC/Gold ratio have been followed by strong rebounds, as weak hands capitulate and long-term holders accumulate. The key takeaway: gold’s outperformance over the past 14 months doesn’t signal more pain ahead. Instead, it may indicate that the market is structurally positioned for the next leg up. For patient investors, this is an opportunity zone. Accumulation now, before the broader narrative shifts, positions you to benefit as bitcoin begins to reclaim its strength relative to gold.
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