🚨4 Clever setups as Treasury Intervention Ignites Rally

None of this is financial advice. Do your own research. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept the terms and conditions outlined in our disclaimer.

Hey Traders,

Markets woke up to a genuine regime-candidate session. Treasury’s decision to double long-end buybacks injected the first clear liquidity signal in months, yields cracked, and Bitcoin finally exited its multi-week range with the largest daily candle since October.

The move was amplified by aggressive short covering and a simultaneous White House catalyst for Hyperliquid. Risk assets that had been compressed for weeks suddenly found air, while relative strength rotated toward names with direct policy optionality.

Our desk is treating the close above key technical thresholds as the real test. Until that confirmation prints, this remains a high-conviction but still provisional shift in the broader crypto and macro landscape.

Today’s Charts:

• Chart #1 – Arbitrum(ARBUSDT) 8-Hour

• Chart #2 – AAVE (AAVEUSDT) 4-Hour

• Chart #3 – Circle(CRCLUSDT) 4-Hour

• Chart #4 – Tesla(TSLA) 4-Hour

Chartist: Trader J

(For the chart screenshot, click here)

Looking for a short trade on ARB after this aggressive move higher. Price is approaching a strong macro resistance cluster, giving us a good area to look for a rejection. The first entry lines up with the previous month’s high, while the second entry sits around the macro 0.382 Fib. We also have the 200-day SMA coming into this same area, adding further confluence to the short zone.

I’ll be layering into the position, with the stop sitting just above the 200-day SMA and targeting a move back toward the 100-day SMA.

Trade Levels:

• Entry: $0.0984

• Stop Loss: $0.1030

• Take Profit Levels (TP):

  • TP1: $0.0884

Powerful narratives create powerful moves. With 247 Research, you get the insights to be early to the biggest trends in crypto.

Chartist: Panda

(For the chart screenshot, click here)

AAVE has been on a strong rally after setting a local low in JUN. Clear rising channel forming and AAVE has been range bound. AAVE has been bullish with signs of strength from claiming both the 100, 50, and currently pushing into the 200SMA. 12H stochs showing signs of additional strength and potential incoming move to the upside, however, it is nearing a strong reaction level at the 102$ region which represents an opportunity fort a short. Confluence: Resistance/Support neckline + 618 + vwap + previous month high + D order block

Trade Levels:

• Entry: $102

• Stop Loss: $107

• Take Profit Levels (TP):

  • TP1: $ 90

Chartist: The Nagel

Circle has completed a 5 wave structure and expect a sweep of the high before wave to can start. looking to short the down trend anchored VWAP and under carriage and TP at the higher low or the bottom of wave two

Trade Levels:

• Entry: $82.19

• Stop Loss: $85.59

• Take Profit Levels (TP):

  • TP1: $ 70.19

Every midterm punishes the president’s party. Rain Trade has Republicans at 16%. The pattern says Democrats win.

This market isn’t asking who wins.
It’s asking, is Trump the exception or the rule?

The 86% price says “rule.” The 16% price says “exception.” Both are live. Both have arguments. Neither is official.
Trade on Rain Trade

Chartist: Trader J

(For the chart screenshot, click here)

(TSLA refers to the stock of Tesla and not a cryptocurrency.)

Looking for a short on Tesla after this strong bounce from the recent lows. I want to see price retrace into the 0.618 Fib around $394, which gives us a strong cluster of resistance.

This zone lines up with the 200-day SMA, the anchored VWAP from the August 9 low, and the anchored VWAP from the December 22, 2025 all-time high. We also have a clean undercarriage resistance in the same area, giving us multiple confluences for a potential rejection.

The idea is to allow Tesla to push back into this resistance cluster before looking for the next leg lower. A 4H candle close above the 200-day SMA would invalidate the short thesis.

Trade Levels:

• Entry: $389

• Stop Loss: $406

• Take Profit Levels (TP):

  • TP1: $333

Banter’s Take

We view today’s liquidity injection and Bitcoin’s breakout as a pivotal macro inflection point, but our analysis approach demands confirmation before committing to a full regime shift. The Treasury’s buyback signal and the subsequent risk-on rotation have cleared immediate fog, yet our research remains provisional until key technical thresholds hold on a sustained basis.

Our team is closely monitoring the interplay between policy optionality and relative strength across the asset classes highlighted in this newsletter. While the charts from our analysts suggest specific entry zones for short positions on ARB, AAVE, CRCL, and TSLA, the broader thesis hinges on whether this liquidity wave can support a durable trend or merely fuel a final liquidity grab.

As we move forward, our strategy prioritizes risk-managed exposure that aligns with these evolving macro conditions rather than chasing momentum blindly. We will continue to refine our outlook based on incoming data, ensuring our trades remain grounded in the confluence of technical structure and fundamental catalysts that define our research methodology.

Get 247 Research to stay synced with Kapoor’s macro watch and level-driven execution.

Start FREE Trial

In a market where execution quality and reliable resolution can make a real difference, we’ve been using Rain Trade for our prediction market activity.

• Clean and fast order execution with minimal slippage when buying and selling event shares

• Permissionless market creation, allowing anyone to launch custom public or private prediction markets

• Reliable resolution powered by AI-hybrid oracles with human escalation when needed

• Simple, trader-friendly interface without unnecessary clutter

• Transparent conditions with clear market rules and no hidden fees eating into returns

Whether you’re taking positions on major events or creating niche markets for specific communities, having a platform that executes smoothly and resolves fairly helps you stay in control.

As a valued subscriber to The Daily Candle, you are part of the wider Crypto Banter ecosystem and that means you get first access to something we’ve been building behind the scenes. We’re thrilled to announce the launch of The Insider, Crypto Banter’s brand new publication designed to give our community a deeper, closer look at everything happening across our network. As an existing The Daily Candle reader, you’ve been added to The Insider as part of our founding subscriber rollout. You’ll continue to receive The Daily Candle as normal and The Insider is an exciting addition to your inbox, not a replacement.