Crypto Super Hub — Weekly Market Intelligence | 12 July 2026
Two weeks ago I told you Bitcoin was sitting in the bottom 3% of its entire history.
Today the score reads 24.3. Bottom 20%.
The market didn’t move 17 points. The model did. And I’d rather explain exactly what happened in plain English than quietly update a number and hope nobody checks.
Because here’s the thing: if you’re going to trust a score with real decisions, you deserve to know when it changes and why. That’s the whole difference between a system and a sales pitch.
Our old model had a flaw we’d known about for a while. It compared today’s price against all of Bitcoin’s history, including the early years when BTC swung thousands of percent in months. Those moves will never repeat. Because they sat in the baseline, the score quietly read too low and could no longer reach the top of its own range. Useful, but drifting.
The rebuilt model (v4.1, live now) measures where price sits inside a fair value band that projects forward with the asset, instead of staying anchored to 2012. Same 0 to 100 scale. Same job. Better ruler. We validated it against 21 hand-captured cycle tops and bottoms across Bitcoin’s history and it reads them roughly 35% more accurately than the old model. I’m not going to dump the full methodology in a newsletter, but we’ve published the plain-language version on the site because a score you can’t interrogate is just vibes with a number attached.
So what does the new ruler actually say?
This is where it gets interesting, and honestly a bit uncomfortable.
Every Bitcoin bear market since 2014 has ended the same way on this model: the score spent real time below 20 before the turn. The 2015 bottom printed around 7. December 2018 printed about 15. At the November 2022 price low of $15,742 the score read 18, and it spent weeks under 20 either side of it.
This cycle’s lowest print so far: 21.5, on July 1, with BTC at $58,550.
Close. Not there.
Read that however you like, but here’s my honest read: by the standard of every previous cycle, we haven’t yet seen the kind of washout that historically marked the end. That’s one possibility. The other is that this cycle stays shallower, the same way each cycle before it has been shallower than the last. Our October 2025 top printed a score of 59, nowhere near the 74 plus readings of past manias. Compressed tops might mean compressed bottoms. The past doesn’t predict the future, and I’m not going to pretend the model is a crystal ball. It’s a map of where we are, not a forecast of where we’re going.
What I actually did about it, because a score without a decision is just decoration:
I bought on July 1. Not because I called the low (I didn’t know it was the low, nobody did). Because my plan had a trigger sitting under that price and the trigger fired. It felt like a nothing day. The score printed the cheapest reading of the entire cycle and my phone didn’t buzz once about it. That’s what real accumulation zones feel like: boring, quiet, slightly nauseating.
I’m still holding a decent chunk of dry powder, and its deployment schedule is written down in my plan, tied to score levels, not to how I feel on the day. If the score prints below 20, my plan buys harder. If it doesn’t and the market turns anyway, my regular DCA already has me positioned. Either way I don’t have to be right. I just have to follow the thing I wrote down when I was calm.
The rebuilt score is live on the app right now, along with the history so you can check every claim I just made against the chart yourself.
The numbers as of tonight:
BTC $64,085, up 0.96% for the week. The score sits at 24.3, up 1.6 points (7%) over the same stretch, and in the bottom 20% of all readings since 2011. We’re in the 20 to 30 band, a zone BTC has occupied for about 15% of its 14.4 year history.
Callback, because the system keeps receipts: the July 1 low at $58,550 printed the cycle’s cheapest score, 21.5. Since then, price is up roughly 9.5% and the score has followed it up. Nothing about that changes the plan. The next tranche has its trigger and the trigger hasn’t moved.
BTC reclaimed the 200-week moving average this week, sitting near $62.9k, after losing it on July 1. So what: that line is the long-term holder’s line in the sand, and the last two bears spent months grinding below it. A quick reclaim is constructive. My plan doesn’t trade moving averages, but it’s the same shift the score’s momentum read picked up this week.
One Bitcoin now buys about 15.5 ounces of gold, its lowest in about three years. Gold has pulled back hard, from a record near $5,100 in January to around $4,120, and BTC has still lost ground against it: the ratio has roughly halved since the October top, when a coin bought close to 30 ounces. So what: the hard-money bid went to gold first this cycle. When crypto cycles have turned in the past, this ratio has swung back fast. My plan doesn’t trade the ratio, but there’s no cleaner picture of how unloved BTC is right now.
Bitcoin dominance is at 59%. So what: alt season is nowhere on the radar. Bear market rule from the playbook: alts bleed longer and harder than BTC. The plan accumulates the index leader first and asks questions about alts much later in the cycle.
Biggest build week we’ve had. Tom was a machine:
The CSH Score v4.1 went live for BTC, with ETH, SOL and XRP close behind. The website copped a full UI overhaul, charts and mobile included. And we ran a full security audit ahead of something we’ve been working toward all year: the paid founding plan.
Straight up on that last one: there will be exactly 100 founding spots, with discounted pricing locked in permanently. That cap is real, not marketing theatre, so when it fills, it fills. If you want first look, create a free account and you’ll hear it from me before anyone else. For the price of a couple of coffees a month you’ll get the score, the Plan Builder, and a dashboard that keeps you honest on the days you don’t feel like being honest.
One apology while I’m here: if you were running a live plan against score triggers this week, the model change moved your reading and I know that’s annoying. Short-term pain, long-term much sharper tool. Full changelog is on the site.
Three things I’m watching, none of them requiring a prediction:
The 200-week MA near $62.9K. We reclaimed it this week after losing it on July 1. Holding above it is the first good sign; losing it again puts the lower supports back in play.
The score’s path toward 20. Every previous bear printed below it before the turn and this one hasn’t. If it gets there, my plan buys harder. If it doesn’t, the DCA already has me positioned. Watch the number with me on the app.
The gold rotation. If the BTC/gold ratio stops falling, that’s the earliest tell that hard-money capital is starting to look our way again.
We rebuilt our own model 10 to 12 weeks before asking anyone to pay for it, and the new version makes today’s market look less like the bottom, not more. That’s the least convenient possible outcome for us commercially, and we shipped it anyway. Systems over hype was never meant to be a slogan.
Here’s my question for you this week, and I’ll feature the best answers next issue: what score level would make you deploy your last third of dry powder? Reply with a number. Mine’s already written in my plan.
If this issue was useful, hit the heart. It’s how Substack decides who else gets shown it.
Talk next Sunday,
Jake
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