There’s Something Happening Here

Nate Hagens is arguably the best popular communicator — and possibly the best thinker — about matters related to the polycrisis. Hagens would be my candidate for the visionary that deserves to inherit the mantle worn by Johanna Macy and David Korten.

Macy brought us the powerful meme of “the Great Turning” to describe humanity’s current civilizational transition. Korten brought us the meme of “the life-centered civilization” to name the society humanity must transition to.

Hagens has launched two memes of note. “The Great Simplification” conveys industrial society’s devolution in a time of energy descent. And “wide boundary lens” names the need for a broad, synthetic view of humanity’s present predicament.

To understand our historic moment of both promise and peril, we absolutely must look through a wide boundary lens. We can’t constrict our vision obsessing over the Donald Trump show, by the insatiable greed of the billionaire class, or by the Christian nationalists’ thrust for supremacy — though these are not to be ignored.

Hagens has the erudition to lucidly describe the polycrisis from a systems perspective. He sees with uncommon clarity the synergy of forces that are fueling disruption and decline.

And he expresses worthy advice on navigating the path to a life-centered civilization. Here’s two sample nuggets:

• The future will not be built by isolated individuals optimizing for themselves, but by communities capable of trust, cooperation, sacrifice, and shared meaning.

• The challenge is not only surviving the Great Turning but becoming more deeply human within it.

I lack Hagens’ depth, but I embrace the importance of taking a wide boundary lens in attending to the trends and events shaping humanity’s collective trajectory.

In this post, I’d like to highlight some trends I find significant.

I’m going to skimp on this one, trusting that you’re all aware of the MAGA administration’s determined campaign to subvert America’s November elections. The prospect of losing control of Congress is an existential threat to the President and his cronies. His survival — and the survival of Christian Nationalism, of oligarchic privilege, and of industrial scale corruption — is at stake. Election defeat is not an option for this axis of evil.

In the face of this desperation to hold to power, democracy is being dismantled. Will essential judicial and governmental institutions hold? Will civil order prevail? American democracy will be tested like never before.

Political historian Heather Cox Richardson, in her popular Political Chats YouTubes, has been arguing that America is entering a time of political realignment. The agendas that characterized its major political parties are in flux — especially among progressives. The country’s tolerance of oligarchy and supremacist rule is waning. New policy ideas and agendas are emerging. A fresh assessment is being made of what people need. The Overton Window is shifting.

One of the dramatic expressions of new possibilities is the surging success of democratic socialist politicians in recent elections. Also the breakout support for more equitable taxation on the uber-rich.

How far might this shift go? Might even more progressive ideas gain traction a little down the road? — Municipalism? Solidarity economy? Economic democracy? Economic relocalization? UBI?

The IPPC consensus has been that at a 1.5 degrees C rise in the global average temperature Earth systems would begin to reach tipping points, precipitating irreversible consequences that accelerate environmental disruption. We’re now over 1.4 degrees C and the last three years have all been over 1.5 C. Scientists recently concluded that the first tipping point has been reached — the widespread dieback of coral reefs.

This is not the only cause for climate change alarm. Recent studies by climatologist James Hansen have confirmed the growing view that the IPPC’s benchmark estimate for the rate of global temperature rise is significantly understated. The IPPC says a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will cause a 3.0 degrees C rise. But Hansen’s camp says that doubling will bring a 4.5 C rise, or more. Bottom line: Warming temperatures could be coming at us far sooner than previously anticipated.

Europe is already baking.

Despite the rapid rise in renewable energy, global dependency on fossil fuels remains the rule. At some point, oil reserves will begin to dwindle. Supply won’t be able to meet demand. At this point (“peak oil”) “energy descent” will set in. Industrial civilization will be profoundly disrupted.

With the choking off of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, a situational energy descent is beginning to plague much of the world. The release of oil held in strategic reserves has been keeping major economies afloat. But for how long?

“Tank bottom” is an oil industry term referring to the minimum operational volume of crude oil required to keep petroleum pumps and pipeline infrastructure working safely.

The Internet is now flush with warnings of impending tank bottom. Peak oil prognosticators are having a field day. Mark Shyrock’s widely viralized warning that tank bottom would occur in America on July 4th was a bust. But the ongoing Iran War makes the occurrence of tank bottom a very real possibility. Shyrock’s timing was off, but maybe not the substance of his prediction.

We will see. Complicating matters: How confident can we be that Trump’s reptilian brain will prioritize ending the war — mainly on Iran’s terms — over risking the economic conflagration that tank bottom would bring?

Two weeks ago, I reported on the projected intensity of the 2026 El Nino — in particular, that it will be of historic intensity. Not just among the biggest, but the biggest. And perhaps by far.

I speculated that the 2026 El Nino’s impact on California’s winter — a likely conveyor belt of atmospheric rivers — could potentially bring the 200-year mega-flood known as the ARk Storm. See: “From Catastrophic Loss to Thriving Communities”

The consensus among meteorologists is that the intensity of the 2026 El Nino is partly due to the accumulated ocean warming caused by climate change. As the climate continues to warm, oceans will continue to heat up. The historic 2026 El Nino could be the new norm.

It’s hard to ignore the ominous combination of inflating investment bubbles, the dismantling of regulatory safeguards, industrial scale graft and corruption, the historic level of wealth concentration, countries dumping their dollar reserves, resurging inflation, the AI investment gamble, tariff wars, oil supply uncertainty . . . a combustible stew of ominous economic trends.

All waiting for a spark. And with an unhinged mad king at the helm to navigate the storm.

A global dynamic that doesn’t get nearly enough attention is the profound failures of nationalism. The modern ideal of the sovereign nation state is, simply, no longer viable. This is not a statement of belief; it’s an observance of fact.

Sovereign nations are massively disturbing the global peace. The United States, Israel, and Russia are the worst — at least in terms of perpetrating wars. And, in the case of the United States, in terms of disrupting global trade with capricious tariffs.

But there are also nations like Myanmar, Sudan, Yemen, the Congo and Somalia where civil wars rage. Countries like North Korea, Afghanistan, Belarus, Nicaragua, and Saudi Arabia where people live under stifling dictatorships. And countries like India and China where ethnic and religious minorities are oppressed.

In all these cases, the global community is mostly helpless to intervene and end the suffering.

In the aftermath of World War II, an international system was put in place to mitigate the evils of nationalism. But much of this international system is now in tatters. The bar has been lowered as to what nations can get away with. There’s no global body with sufficient authority to mitigate the anarchy.

I don’t view the above events and trends as portents of collapse. I see them as markers of a world in flux — of humanity being in the midst of accelerating evolution.

For the new to be born, the old must die. This death is part and parcel of the Great Turning. It is Hagens’ Great Simplification in action. That which stands in the way of a life-centered civilization must crash. People have to feel in their bones that the present order can only bring dead-endings.

Out of the rubble, those who once stood on society’s periphery, holding their passionate new era visions and building their innovative models, they will finally find space to rise. Their ideas and their prototypes will come to the fore and point to the new path forward.

In his anthem, The Times They Are A-Changing, Bob Dylan captured a dynamic that occurs in times of epochal change:

The times are surely changing. The life-centered civilization is coming. Our time is coming.

Dylan also addressed the psychological stance that humanity’s harbingers must take in changing times.

We are not here to freak out, to succumb to cynicism, to submissively go down with the ship. We are here to stand tall, advance together, and live fully.

I’m not done with this topic. Just done for today.