Nvidia Just Repriced the Entire AI Value Chain
This is the most important print of this earnings season. Here is my read across for every layer of the AI value chain (why it strengthens my conviction on AI) plus my revised Nvidia investment case
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AI Investment Supercycle: How to Invest in the $6-7tn Race
One year ago I mapped the $3-4tn race. The number has since doubled. This is my definitive AI value chain: every layer, every named company and and how to play this once in a generation opportunity
Nokia: From Value Trap to AI Backbone
Europe's only vertically integrated optical vendor is out-ordering the incumbent, and the multiple just came back to earth
Is the AI Trade Financeable?
The credit question is the successor to the token question. Here is the full funding map of the AI buildout, who is load bearing on capital markets, and what would actually break.
Who Powers AI - Part 2: Speed to Power
How hyperscalers buy power when the grid takes six years, what every month of speed costs, and who monetizes this impatience
Siltronic: Every AI Chip Starts Here
Only five companies on earth make the wafers beneath every AI chip, and Siltronic is the cheapest. Four years into the downturn, volumes and prices are inflecting.
Coherent & Lumentum: The Laser Duopoly That Rations the Supercycle
Coherent and Lumentum own the scarcity of the AI buildout. The earnings just proved that in the laser layer, capacity is revenue.
Who Powers AI - Part 1: The Anatomy of a Gigawatt
What one gigawatt of AI capacity physically requires, what it costs dollar by dollar, and why money alone cannot buy it
The US Photonics Supercycle
19 Ways to Play the AI Optical Build-Out from America. Where value capture is durable and where it is crowded.
US Solar Is Investable Again
Washington and Beijing are now legislating a price for the same commodity from opposite directions, and the cost of powering the AI buildout goes up with it
Aixtron: The Epitaxy Monopoly Growing AI’s Lasers and Watts
Record orders, 90% share in the tools that grow every AI laser, and a 40% selloff on no company news
SK Hynix: The Flagship at Half Price
The memory singularity’s flagship just printed a W60.5tn quarter into a 53% drawdown. The most contracted, most leading-edge book in the industry now trades at 4 times forward earnings
My Electrification Selloff Shopping List
The market sold the power layer as an AI derivative. 10 names down 16 to 40% from their peaks, each with a full deep dive behind it, ordered by how much of their demand survives without AI
The Reckoning Arrives
Three weeks ago I argued this selloff was positioning, not fundamentals. The positioning is now spent. What remains is the market pricing the two questions that actually matter, and my updated verdict
ASML: Five Machines, a Third Off
The market repriced a €500bn monopoly on a programme that has been public since September. The earnings path has not moved: EPS compounds 2.6x by 2028