Financial Markets And Real Estate
According to the Atlanta Fed s GDP Now REAL time model, Q3 Real GDP is 5%. The subcomponents of GDP growth are as follows: So much for the doom and gloom of Trump s tariff war or Trump s Iran war. 5% Real GDP growth is outstanding! And The Fed keeps on printing money (M2)! Keep on printin ! Continue reading Q3 US Real GDP Growth At 5% (So Much For The Iran War Slump)
Large bank mortgage originations have crashed and burned since 2022. The Fed has raised rates following the Covid outbreak and have not cut rates in a significant manner. Another problem facing the US economy is that housing prices have over doubled since 2015. My reaction to the Fauci testimony in Congress. I am surprised that Continue reading US Mortgage Origination Remain Subdued At Fed Keeps…
US home prices are clearly unaffordable for younger households, given the dearth of true starter homes. As of Q1 2026, REAL US residential property prices fell -2.1% YoY. China s real residential property prices are declining even faster than the US. The US Federal Reserve is printing money M2 at a 5.6% YoY pace. Slower than Continue reading Real Home Price Growth Is Negative (Worse In China), Fed…
SEATTLE, June 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ The bar for entry-level homeownership has never been higher. While the typical starter home nationwide is worth $198,649, a record 242 cities now have starter homes valued at $1 million or more, A typical starter home is defined for this analysis as a home in the lowest third of home values Continue reading While The Typical Starter Home Is $198,649, A Record…
Welcome to the whacky world of employment in the AI era! US jobs rose by 172K in May. Local government rose by 55K while finance/insurance jobs fell by -20.2K in May.
The inflation numbers are out for April. Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually, higher than The Fed s target rate of 2%. To be fair, The Federal Reserve pumped up the money supply (M2) by 4.6% in March. According to the BLS, gasoline prices rose 28.4% annually in April while shelter rose 3.3% annually. Do the Federal Continue reading Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, the highest since May…
MBA Mortgage Purchase Index down -3.7% over the past week after climbing +1.2% in prior week…30y mortgage rate rose to +6.45% up from +6.37% and highest in a month. With the Federal government playing an outsized role in the housing and mortgage markets, the Federal goverment is like an enormous Mantis Shrimp.
High home prices show signs of cooling, mortgage rates remain fairly constant, while new home sales increase by 47k in March. Despite rising mortgage rates. The bigger picture? New home sales remain relatively depressed after the Covid outbreak in 2020.
Median price for new single family homes fell to $387,400 in April, dropping 6.2% y/y to its lowest level since July 2021. Worst March for existing home sales since 2009. Rents? Lowest since pre-pandemic. Is Rosa DeLauro actually Moe Howard with purple hair??
It used to be that a debt-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio above 1.0 would be disastrous. Yet, the US Debt-to-GDP ratio rises during and after most recessions. Why? The old Keynesian model called for increased government spending and debt to pull the country out of a recession. But the Keynesian model called for debt to Continue reading US Debt To GDP Ratio At 1.22 (Nothing Has Been The Same…