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Conflicts Forum’s Substack · Aug 17, 2026

The Consequences of More Netanyahu Lies

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Conflicts Forum · Conflicts Forum’s Substack

Theories abound as to why DJT went to war with Iran - pressure from his donors, BN lies and so on. However my guess is that DJT was at least suspicious that BN was lying about the ease of beating Iran. DJT’s main motivation, as the clear head of the fading empire, was to add the Straits of Hormuz as another US strategic choke point to global commerce (Venezuela, Greenland, S.China Sea etc). The objective being to remain relevant as a global player when the rest of the world is taking their distance from the USA and their toxic currency.

Thanks for your analyses Mr Crooke. These geopolitical games would be even more opaque without your excellent input.

Kind regards

So, the U.S. and Israel went to war with the idea it would be over in 4 days. How was that plan sold? I cannot accept that somebody just said “Yeah, we’re the best on the planet. It should all be over in about 4 days!”. There had to be a detailed plan associated with the decision to go to war. I posit it involved a setup to get to America’s preferred method of war – carpet bombing until the enemy can no longer fight. The plan had to be a means of goading the Iranians into activating their entire defense grid so that it could be mapped by satellite and taken out in a single comprehensive Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) strike. I think the goading came in the form of long range precision strikes hitting targets designed to infuriate the Iranians – including assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei (among other leaders) and hitting civilian targets like a girl’s school. The old intelligence meme with the Minab school was a convenient fig leaf of plausible deniability. But Iranian leadership didn’t fall for it. The held AD in reserve and had decoys to offer as targets. And now instead of dropping a seemingly endless supply of cheap gravity bombs from uncontested skies the U.S. and Israel can only fire expensive and increasingly scarce targeted munitions from stand-off distances. Their beautiful 4 day war is now a conflict from which they cannot escape.

The old western meme was that muslim terrorists expected to receive 72 virgins in the afterlife. Not to be outdone, Trump & Netanyahoo have set themselves up to receive 168. No sympathy.

Thank you Alastair, for all your efforts. You are a wonderful light in a dark time.

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