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Conflict & Capital · May 14, 2025

⚔️ The Tariff War Heats Up—Then Cools Down

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Conflict & Capital · Conflict & Capital

The tit-for-tat tariff escalation between the two biggest economies in the world has suddenly veered toward de-escalation. Both the United States and China withdrew on May 12 following months of retaliatory tax increases, suggesting a possible change toward fresh trade negotiations.

Here’s how the tariff chess match played out:

  • Feb 1: 10% tariff on all Chinese imports

  • Feb 10: 25% on steel and aluminum

  • Mar 3: Tariffs raised to 20%

  • Apr 2: Spike to 54%

  • Apr 8–9: Surged to 104% and then 145% 🚀

  • May 12: Temporary drop to 30%, aiming to open the door for diplomacy 🤝

  • Feb 4: 10% on agricultural machinery, coal, and natural gas.

  • Mar 4: 10% on agricultural products and food.

  • Apr 4: climbed to 34%

  • Apr 9–11: Made leaps to 125% and 84% 🔥

  • May 12: Cut to 10%, matching the United States to help to lower tensions. ✍️

“Both sides agree that we share mutual interests… and neither seeks economic decoupling.”

This key statement highlights a shared intent: not to sever ties, but to stabilize economic relations.

  • The synchronized May 12 tariff rollback signals a cooling of trade tensions.

  • It reflects both countries’ efforts to avoid economic decoupling in spite of months of forceful policy actions.

  • This may pave the way for a new round of trade agreements.

  • There is a positive outlook for export-driven and tech stocks like Apple, Tesla, and U.S. agricultural exporters.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

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