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Cold Takes

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Latest posts

Good job opportunities for helping with the most important century

I wrote ~2 years ago that it was hard to find concrete ways to help the most important century go well. That’s changing.

What does Bing Chat tell us about AI risk?

Early signs of catastrophic risk? Yes and no.

How major governments can help with the most important century

Governments could be crucial in the long run, but it's probably best to proceed with caution.

What AI companies can do today to help with the most important century

Major AI companies can increase or reduce global catastrophic risks.

Jobs that can help with the most important century

People are far better at their jobs than at anything else. Here are the best ways to help the most important century go well.

Spreading messages to help with the most important century

For people who want to help improve our prospects for navigating transformative AI, and have an audience.

How we could stumble into AI catastrophe

Hypothetical stories where the world tries, but fails, to avert a global disaster.

Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment): an overview

An overview of key potential factors (not just alignment risk) for whether things go well or poorly with transformative AI. https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-issues-not-just-misalignment-an-overview/

Racing through a minefield: the AI deployment problem

Push AI forward too fast, and catastrophe could occur. Too slow, and someone else less cautious could do it. Is there a safe course?

High-level hopes for AI alignment

A few ways we might get very powerful AI systems to be safe.

AI Safety Seems Hard to Measure

Four analogies for why "We don't see any misbehavior by this AI" isn't enough.

Why Would AI "Aim" To Defeat Humanity?

Today's AI development methods risk training AIs to be deceptive, manipulative and ambitious. This might not be easy to fix as it comes up.

Beta Readers are Great

Back in January, I posted a call for "beta readers" : people who read early drafts of my posts and give honest feedback. The beta readers I picked up that way are one of my favorite things about having started Cold Takes. Basically, one of my goals with Cold

The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine

We scored mid-20th-century sci-fi writers on nonfiction predictions. They weren't great, but weren't terrible either. Maybe doing futurism works fine.

Nonprofit Boards are Weird

With great power comes, er, unclear responsibility and zero accountability.