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The Counterfactual by Clive Bates

Tobacco and nicotine science, policy, and politics

clivebates.substack.comSource feed ↗10 posts

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Latest posts

NHS goes "merchant of doubt" on vaping as an alternative to smoking

Sometime in July 2026, a small but significant change was made to the National Health Service (England) website on vaping. It has really disturbed me. Am I overreacting?

UK government intensifies anti-vaping, pro-smoking agenda

The government's new proposals are based on a simplistic misunderstanding of youth vaping and casually trample over the needs of the much larger population of adult vapers and smokers.

The worst idea in the history of tobacco control

The island nation of Palau and its backers are trying to have nicotine scheduled as a prohibited drug under the international illegal drug regime. What is going on?

What's wrong with WHO? Ten fundamentals on tobacco and nicotine

The WHO uses World No Tobacco Day to attack far safer alternatives to smoking. It is an abusive disinformation operation that spreads doubt, protects the cigarette trade, and promotes organised crime.

A ridiculous but revealing conference declaration

In the perpetual contest for the dumbest public health conference declaration, the Europeans are going for gold.

England's proposed anti-vaping policy casually tramples over basic rights

There is no "right to vape", but property owners have the right to decide their vaping policy unless the government can justify overriding them. It has failed to make a case.

FDA vape regulation "untethered from reality"

FDA's proposals to regulate flavored vapes exist in an imaginary world untethered from reality-based behaviors, real-world markets, and predictable unintended consequences of excessive regulation.

Ten reasons to dislike the UK Tobacco and Vapes Bill

The anti-smoking measures are useless, the population at greatest risk has been ignored, and the anti-vaping measures will do more harm than good.

Rise of the pragmatists

A new commentary in Nature Health sets out a bold but pragmatic agenda for addressing the global epidemic of smoking and related harms. Meanwhile a cautionary tale explains what can go wrong.

How to eliminate the tobacco industry

There are two ways to eliminate the tobacco industry: through competition (right) or through exclusion (wrong).