Long Island Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-NY03) and Laura Gillen (D-NY04) warned New York City against electing fellow Democrat Zohran Mamdani. But will distancing themselves from the progressive assemblyman help them win over skeptical voters on the heels of a red wave?
Although Democrats outnumber Republicans in both districts, Suozzi and Gillen face an uphill battle in the 2026 midterm elections. The Long Island Democrats are running in an area where Republicans this year retained key seats for Nassau County executive, district attorney and comptroller in the backdrop of Mamdani’s historic win.
“Mandani is a very, very activating force for Long Islanders,” said Matthew Record, a political science professor at Molloy University. “He represents a lot of things that Long Island is not. He’s non white, he’s young, he’s very progressive, left-leaning, he’s Muslim.”
Some political experts say that Suozzi and Gillen are trying to show skeptical constituents that they are more moderate than the democratic socialist mayor-elect. This effort may lessen “the Mamdani effect,” or how Mamdani’s popularity will impact their own. Still, if Mamdani’s affordability policies hurt Long Islanders financially, voters may turn toward Republicans anyway.
“[Gillen] knows, particularly in the Orthodox Jewish community, where there still is grave concern about Mamdani, that she needs to be very careful about being hurt by any perceived association,” said Lawrence Levy, a former political columnist for Newsday.
“Mamdani is a threat to my constituents,” Gillen said on Meet the Press months before the election. She had previously called him “too extreme to lead New York City.”
Levy said Suozzi — who had stated he couldn’t “back a declared socialist with a thin resume” — was softer in his distancing, and his long political history has built good will with his constituents.
“I think he’s less likely to pay any price if Mamdani can’t manage to improve his own credibility and make himself less of a target,” Levy said.
According to Record, as Long Islanders lean more to the right, the range of political views accepted by the general public also shifts right, requiring Democrats to run more moderate candidates.
“Kind of beating up on Mamdani is just an easy way for you to try to signal that you are not a typical Democrat,” Record said.
This method has worked in the past. During Suozzi’s 2024 reelection campaign, he rejected claims made by the GOP that he was connected to “the squad” — a group of progressive House members including democratic socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — in a strikingly similar move to his distancing from Mamdani.
Michael Dawidziak, a pollster and Republican strategist, believes that taking moderate stances will help Gillen and Suozzi remain competitive.
“I think that will give them an edge, or at least help insulate them to some degree in next year’s midterm elections,” Dawidziak said.
Still, Dawidziak said that Long Island’s red wave is “showing no sign of abatement.”
Despite their criticism of Mamdani, Suozzi and Gillen’s proximity to New York City still puts them at risk of being victim to “the Mamdani effect,” according to Levy.
New York City’s economy is closely tied to Long Island’s, with 306,000 Long Island commuters bringing home a total of $37.9 billion in 2022, according to a report by the Regional Plan Association. Mamdani’s proposed tax hikes on corporations — designed to raise revenue for the city — have alarmed business leaders and Republican elected officials on Long Island. Reelected Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman held a press conference last week warning of corporations passing on the cost of these taxes to consumers.
“What I’m concerned about is the deleterious effect that this will have on Nassau County and the rest of the state,” Blakeman said at the press conference.
While it remains unclear how Mamdani could influence Suozzi and Gillen’s reelection efforts, there is a history of voters “taking out their frustrations” on local Democrats, according to Levy. He pointed to Suozzi losing the 2009 race “in part, because a lot of voters were on the left, disappointed in Obama, and on the right, angry, particularly at his efforts on healthcare.”
“We’ve had a red wave on Long Island now for five years running,” Dawidziak said. “Ironically, this red wave on Long Island has been fueled by New York City Democrats passing legislation that is detrimental to Long Island.”
Suozzi, Gillen and their announced opponents in next year’s midterm election did not respond to requests for comment.
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