🤯 The most likely Senate outcome? A 50-50 split!

Want to hear something wild?

According to Decision Desk HQ’s latest 2026 Election Forecast, the MOST likely outcome of the fight for Senate control this fall is a 50-50 split.

In one million runs of the DDHQ model, the Senate winds up at 50 Republican seats and 50 Democratic seats roughly 10% of the time or 102,901 occurrences.

And that reality hasn’t changed much since DDHQ launched its model two months ago. Here’s a chart that shows that (lack of) movement:

Under such a scenario, Republicans would still control the Senate, with Vice President JD Vance serving as the tie-breaking vote. (The VP holds a dual role as president of the Senate.)

BUT, if the Senate does end 50-50 after the midterms, you can bet that Democrats will go after Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski to switch parties (or at least become an independent who caucuses with Democrats) to seize control of the chamber. And, Republicans will do everything in their power to get Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman to join them to provide a one-seat cushion.

Horse-trading galore!

Via Substack Live, I talked to DDHQ big brains Geoffrey Skelley and Maddisen Murrell on Thursday afternoon about the latest run of the 2026 Election Forecast. (NOTE: We will be doing this election forecast/model convo biweekly between now and the midterms!)

We covered the state of the fights for the Senate and House majorities, the difference between election models and political handicapping, why DDHQ includes prediction markets in its model and a whole lot else!