🗳️ The 10 most competitive 2026 Senate races

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The last time I ranked the 10 Senate races most likely to switch parties in November, Graham Platner was still the Democratic nominee in Maine.

A lot can change in six weeks!

Which should serve as a reminder — especially once we enter the post-Labor Day sprint — that STUFF CHANGES.

These rankings are not set in stone! So if your favorite race isn’t ranked where you think it should be today, just wait!

To that end, I will be releasing new Senate race ratings every other week post-Labor Day. And I may go every week in the final month or so!

The big change between the start of the summer and the end of summer — most Virginia public schools went back today! — is that the odds-makers now see Senate control as a pure toss-up.

At the end of June, Polymarket gave Republicans a 60% chance of holding the majority. Here’s where those odds stand as of today:

(NOTE: Polymarket is a sponsor of this newsletter. No I do not participate in their markets. Yes I do check their markets. Daily.)

Most models agree with those odds. The Decision Desk HQ 2026 Forecast has the race for the Senate majority near a 50-50 probability:

Look: It’s close, people. Which is pretty remarkable given that of the 22 states Republicans are defending, only one — Maine — was a place Kamala Harris won in 2024.

Remember: Democrats have to NET four seats in the Senate to win the majority. Lose Maine — or the one real Democratic vulnerability in Michigan — and the chances of a Republican majority shoot up to 80% in the Decision Desk HQ model.

This post — and ALL future 2026 Senate and gubernatorial rankings as well as my 2028 presidential rankings — will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me in the world of independent journalism.

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