A Hot Independent Summer?

The zone has been flooded with punditry about the insurgent left, but we ought to pay attention to something else that has been happening out here in fly-over country: A surge of Democratic-backed independent candidacies; and the embrace of Unity tickets in key swing states.

My contrarian take: This is a BFD.

But let’s start by catching-up:

• Dipsomaniacal chodes (and I refer here to putting Pete Hegseth in charge of the Pentagon) have consequences. U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln Has Been Deployed for Months, Prompting Concerns - The New York Times

  “There have been widespread reports of shortages of basic supplies, water contamination, plumbing issues, deteriorating mental health, deck safety concerns and disruptions in the mail system, which have caused many care packages in route to the ship to be lost in transit for months.”

• Dispatches from Trump’s endless war: “Sailor went overboard from the USS Abraham Lincoln this month as conditions on the ship prompt lawmakers’ demand for answers.”

  The incident of the sailor going overboard, which has not been previously reported, adds to a growing list of concerns about the crew on the ship. Several Democratic lawmakers are calling for answers after concerns were raised by families of sailors aboard Lincoln about the deteriorating living conditions and worsening mental health during the ship’s record-breaking deployment.

  Since the Lincoln left its home port of San Diego last November, the aircraft carrier has been deployed for more than 250 days after being redirected to the Middle East to support US operations in the war with Iran, now entering its sixth month. With more than 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard, it has not made a port call in more than 200 days, setting a modern-day record for consecutive days at sea, according to Sen. Richard Blumenthal.

• Vandalism update: ”Kennedy Center Board Votes to Carve Trump’s Name Into the Building’s Marble Facade.”

  The decision comes just months after a judge ruled that separate signage bearing the president’s name had to be taken off the building’s marquee. The new inscription will test the order….

• The brutality is the point: “ICE to spend up to $20m on gloves that can deliver painful electric shocks” Via NPR:

  The device is called the G.L.O.V. E., an acronym that stands for Generated Low Output Voltage Emitter. When a small button on the wrist of the glove is activated, it delivers an electric shock when it touches skin.

• More wingéd boondoggles: “Homeland Security Paid $464 Million for Airplanes. Then It Parked Them” - The New York Times

  Starting last fall, the Department of Homeland Security spent $464 million on a no-bid contract to buy 10 used airplanes from a firm in Northern Virginia.

  That was an enormous price tag, but the department said it had no time to consider other offers. The planes were needed urgently for deportation flights.

  But since then, the department has barely used this new fleet — for deportations, or anything else.

  Three of the aircraft are luxury business jets.

Note: This week I achieved a singularity of sorts: I got as much hate mail from the left as from the MAGA right.

So that felt like a milestone of sorts, but it pains me to tell you that the level of discourse and logic was roughly even. But, hey, this is what it means to be a “contrarian.” And I never promised anyone a safe space. Just straight, sober, sane, snarky commentary. And dogs.

Until this week, the narrative that has dominated coverage has been the rising insurgency on the left and the Democratic flirtation with socialism and what AOC calls ‘Woke 1.” Of course — as I’ve written over and over again — the danger was quite real. I’d urge you to read Claire Berlinski’s bracing piece about the role the DSA may play in the midterms: “The Most Dangerous Woman in the World.”

This insignificant, preposterous woman is going to rescue Donald Trump:

That is the co-chair of the DSA. If you don’t know who she is, you’re about to learn, because Republican strategists will spend every day between now and the midterm elections introducing her to you. They won’t need to distort her views, invent a quotation, or selectively edit the video. They’ll just have to show you the interview.

And if you want to get an idea of the electoral bullet Wisconsin just dodged, you should also read Peter Hamby’s remarkable scoop over at Puck: “Inside the G.O.P.’s Secret Francesca Hong Oppo File.” It’s a banger.

After Hong narrowly lost on Tuesday, a Wisconsin G.O.P. source sent me the entire 349-page opposition research dossier put together by Republican Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial campaign, assembled with the expectation that Hong would be his opponent in November. Now next to useless, the book—marked “privileged and confidential” by the G.O.P. research firm that compiled it—offers a tantalizing glimpse into how Republicans were preparing to bombard Wisconsin voters with a showcase of Hong’s Portlandia-style rhetoric and controversial votes in the state legislature.

Meanwhile, in Michigan — a state where Trump has a 58 percent disapproval rating — Abdul El-Sayed is trailing Republican Mike Rogers by four points, 51 percent to 47 percent among registered voters.

**

But I’d like to call your attention to what’s happening in normie America, because it provides a counter-narrative to the notion that the Democratic Party as a whole is eager to Corbynize itself.1

Consider Arizona, where the incumbent Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs, has just named a former Republican as her running mate: “Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs chooses former Republican as running mate in re-election bid

On Tuesday, Hobbs will name John Giles, who served as mayor of Mesa, Arizona, from 2014 to 2025, as her pick for lieutenant governor, according to campaign communications director Michael Beyer.

While mayor of Mesa, Giles endorsed then-Vice President Kamala Harris for president in the 2024 election and spoke at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago that year about his disappointment with the Republican Party.

“I’m a lifelong Republican, so I feel a little out of place tonight. But I feel more at home here than in today’s Republican Party,” Giles said in his remarks. “The Grand Old Party has been kidnapped by extremists and devolved into a cult — the cult of Donald Trump.”

He added, “I have an urgent message for the majority of Americans who, like me, are in the political middle. John McCain’s Republican Party is gone, and we don’t owe a damn thing to what’s been left behind.”

Hobbs’ choice reflects the reality that Democrats need to expand their tent to win in purple states: “In a partisan age, a Democratic governor goes outside her brand for a running mate.”

Choosing an independent running mate is a gambit Hobbs hopes will lift her to a second gubernatorial term in a purple state with a Republican-controlled legislature. Hobbs is widely seen as the Democratic state executive most in jeopardy because nearly all the other competitive governor’s races are open seats.

Something similar is happening in Florida, where former GOP Congressman (and stalwart Never Trumper) David Jolly is poised to win the Democratic nomination for governor. And, like Hobb, he is forming a unity ticket by picking a prominent Democrat — former Rep. Gwen Graham — as his running mate.

During the 2018 primary, when Graham was the establishment favorite, she said she would consider Jolly to be her running mate even though he was a Republican. Jolly later left the party, citing differences with President Donald Trump, and became an independent until switching his registration to Democrat last year.

**

This Democratic embrace of innovative Big Tents can also be seen in places like Idaho, South Dakota, and Nebraska, where Democrats have rallied around centrist independent candidates to take on Republicans in deep red states.

These are actually quite amazing stories that deserve more attention, especially on a day like today:

IDAHO: “Idaho Democrat is latest Senate nominee to drop out in boost to independent rival.”

The move leaves Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator and an Army veteran, as the main challenger to Republican Sen. Jim Risch.

Democrats have long struggled in Idaho, one of the nation’s most Republican states. Donald Trump carried the state three times, winning it by more than 35 points in 2024, and a Democrat has not won a Senate race here since Frank Church in 1974.

Achilles has positioned himself as a moderate who can appeal to voters across the political spectrum. “I reject the left-right divide because the challenge ahead of us is those at the top versus those at the bottom — those in power against the people,’’ he says on his campaign website.2

NEBRASKA:

In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn was the beneficiary of a similar strategy in his ultimately unsuccessful run against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024, when Democrats did not hold a primary.

Osborn is back this cycle, trying to oust Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since Sen. Ben Nelson was reelected in 2006.

[SEE: Dan Osborn | Independent for U.S. Senate]

SOUTH DAKOTA: “Democrat exits Senate race in South Dakota, clearing way for independent.”

Beaudion filed paperwork to remove his name from the general election ballot shortly before 6 p.m.Tuesday, he told The Washington Post. The election will become the third Senate race where Democrats have opted not to field a candidate, following similar withdrawals in Nebraska and Idaho, in hopes that candidates without the Democratic label will be better able to compete in overwhelmingly Republican states.

The strategy gained popularity after independent Dan Osborn came within seven percentage points of winning Nebraska’s 2024 Senate race, significantly outperforming past Democratic candidates. Osborn is running again this fall.

Several Democrats have also backed independent Seth Bodnar in Montana’s Senate race, believing he could be highly competitive if Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead withdraws. Bankhead has thus far refused to do so amid pressure from some Montana Democrats.

And look at how the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Rob Sand, is campaigning in Iowa:

He begins his town halls by asking for a show of hands — who is a Republican, an independent or a Democrat — with a round of applause for each faction. Then he asks the audience to sing the first verse of “America the Beautiful.” Gimmicky? Yes. Corny? Definitely. But as the awkwardness subsides, a few hundred voices build into something resembling harmony, and a soft patriotism envelops the room.

**

The usual caveats apply. There’s no guarantee these campaigns will win; and some of them (Idaho and South Dakota) may well be out of reach. But the campaigns hint at a strategy that Democrats could embrace in the future if they are serious about clawing back some of the voters who have fled their party — and defeating Trump.

At least some Democrats seem to get it. Despite the DSA-hype, Max Boot points out that centrists have been racking up an impressive series of wins.

[Last] year also saw the election of very centrist Democratic candidates for governor in Virginia (Abigail Spanberger) and New Jersey (Mikie Sherrill). Democrats are competitive in multiple Senate races this year not only because Trump is so unpopular but also because they have chosen moderate candidates in such states as North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas.

There is no doubt that the far-left, “woke” faction of the Democratic Party is growing, and that it presents a threat to the centrist direction the party needs to follow if it is to win in 2026, 2028 and beyond. But the far-left is far from taking over the Democratic Party the way the far-right Trumpist cult has taken over the Republican Party, and, for all of the ideological blind spots of the far left, it has not evinced a MAGA-like hostility to American democracy. That doesn’t mean that centrist Democrats should ignore the challenge from the far left; they need to be careful to learn the lessons of mainstream Republicans who have been rendered irrelevant by the unexpected triumph of the MAGA movement.

Another Dem Guv who gets it.

Crowley says he won’t campaign with Hasan Piker

“I don’t want to lend credibility to platforms, if you will, that I believe further divides us as a community, further divides Democrats,” Crowley told WISN when asked about the prospect of campaigning with Piker.

When pressed further on the possibility of collaborating with the streamer, Crowley said, “I don’t plan on campaigning with Hasan.”

**

BONUS From the Before Times. Via Jay Nordlinger.

“Congressman Henry Hyde, the Illinois Republican who served in the House from 1975 to 2007, had the job of speaking to new members at their freshman orientation. He stressed one thing: Figure out what you’re willing to lose your seat over. What principle or policy. If there is no such thing, ‘then you’re going to do damage here.’” A fuller excerpt of what Hyde said on November 29, 1990:

This may sound odd, even ironic. You are here in the flush of victory. And yet it is precisely now that I ask you to contemplate the possibility of defeat—perhaps even the necessity of defeat.

Edmund Burke, in 1774, set forth a model we should all emulate when he told his Bristol constituents: “Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgement, and he betrays instead of serving you if he sacrifices it to your opinion.”

Let me put the matter plainly: If you are here simply as a tote board registering the current state of opinion in your district, you are not going to serve either your constituents or the Congress of the United States weIl.

Your constituents expect you to represent their interests, and that you should certainly do. But you are also a member of the Congress, and your responsibilities are far greater than those of an ombudsman for your district. You must take, at times, a national view, even if, in taking that view, you risk the displeasure of your neighbors and friends back home.

Indeed, I feel obliged to put the matter more sharply still: If you don’t know the principle, or the policy, for which you are willing to lose your office, then you are going to do damage here.

This institution needs more members willing to look beyond the biennial contest for power, more committed to public service as a vocation rather than merely a career.

Amazing. And inconceivable these days.

One giant leap for canine joy.