No Deal To Be Had

The deadline for the latest round of trade negotiations is two days away.

Canadian media are awash with stories of what Canada needs to do to secure a deal. The talk is about making concessions to win “relief.” At the same time, Canadians are showing more determination than ever to hold the line.

The deadline is being presented as a test of the Prime Minister’s credibility. But the reality is his credibility will be more in question if he does announce a deal.

Because there is no deal to be had.

Let’s talk about the doomsday numbers.

The media are saying Canada will lose 100,000 jobs if we allow CUSMA to fail. The United States, for their part, will lose more than 200,000.

But when Canada negotiated the original NAFTA agreement, we lost 340,000 good-paying manufacturing jobs.

Once gone, those jobs were gone forever as subsequent waves of offshoring further undermined Canada’s domestic economy. The business class didn’t blink. They told us this catastrophic job loss was part of the price we had to pay for market integration.

So here’s the question:

If we were willing to sacrifice 340,000 jobs to win market dependency in the USA, are we willing to give up 100,000 jobs to regain our independence?

That is a conversation that Canadians are ready to have because we are being subjected to a one-sided war of aggression with the stated intention of breaking our economy.

Consider the latest round of 50% arbitrary tariffs on everything from hockey sticks to swimming pools.

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, U.S Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra and Donald Trump say they were imposed in response to Canada’s “discriminatory” tariffs on the United States.

Bullshit.

Canada was responding to their unilateral tariff war on us.

But they gaslight us by turning an act of self-defence into an act of unfair aggression.

The administration is raging because Canada remains one of only two countries (China being the other) that didn’t meekly go along with the arbitrary war on our economy. All other countries – from Australia to Europe complied.

The hammer Trump is using is Section 338 of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

No president has ever used this tactic before because this legislation stands alone in economic ignominy as the worst economic legislation ever (it plunged the world into the Great Depression). Trump has arbitrarily applied the maximum pressure from this legislation to express his hatred of Canada.

There is nothing to negotiate here because it was imposed as a shakedown on top of the original shakedown.

So where else could we see tariff relief?

Is Trump going to dial back the auto tariff to a reasonable level?

Not likely.

Never mind that the industry is highly integrated across the two borders, and many parts for cars made in Canada come from Ohio and Michigan. Trump imposed the higher tariff rate with the vow that he would force the auto industry to quit Canada.

Returning to the status quo with Canada on auto would make sense for workers on both sides of the border but it would be seen as a defeat for Trump.

What about dairy?

Would the PM agree to dismantle the supply management system?

The system has proven to be key to maintaining food sovereignty and would flood our market with hormone-injected milk from mega farms. Canadians wouldn’t stand for it.

What about demands that Canada stop opening the market up to China?

A few years ago, this would have been an easy win for any American administration, but Trump’s arbitrary attacks have made it necessary for Canada to diversify. We aren’t about to close those markets now, knowing that Trump will likely turn on us the day after the agreement is made.

Trump is insisting on dominance over the North American hemisphere, but CUSMA had this. It gave the United States a powerful, stable North American-based market.

The problem is Trump doesn’t want partners.

He wants vassals.

So what is actually on offer?

The media are floating the idea that the unilateral tariff war on steel, aluminum, and lumber will likely remain but be pegged at a lower rate if we immediately agree to end the booze boycott.

Trump doesn’t give a damn about the struggling vineyards in California or the laid-off bourbon workers in Kentucky.

He sees the booze boycott as an unacceptable symbol of defiance, and he wants Prime Minister Carney to wave the white flag.

This will test the banker-turned-politician.

Mr. Carney may be perfectly suited to calculate changes to tariff rate quotas on rolled steel, the question is whether he values the incalculable power of a once-in-a-century expression of Canadian will to stand together in the face of threat.

This expression of national will is not something you trade away to appease the likes of Howard Lutnick.

If the Prime Minister miscalculates on this, he won’t be forgiven.

To quote Mr. Carney’s earlier commitment: no deal is better than a bad deal.

Or better yet, to quote Captain Canada, Premier Wab Kinew,

“No CUSMA – NO BOOZMA.”

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