Newsletter #10 - CediChronicles

Saluto,

This newsletter will be about power politics and the international system. Given that my next class is about power transitions in the international system, at the end I’ll mention how they fit into the hegemonic power transition theory. Here are the three articles.

1. Why a Nervous Middle East Braces for a New Round of Upheaval

We are seeing the build up of massive military power in the Middle East. This does not happen randomly or for posturing. Operating an aircraft carrier like the USS Gerard Ford costs about 6 to 8 million $ a day, so when they head somewhere, you need to pay attention to what it means. This article will help you with it.

You will find the article here

2. The Purges Within China’s Military Are Even Deeper Than You Think

This article is well researched and is very informative. It demonstrates that while Xi's stated goal is eliminating corruption and ensuring loyalty, the purges have created a paradox:

In attempting to build a stronger, more loyal military, he has simultaneously undermined its operational effectiveness and experience, raising serious questions about the People’s Liberation Army's ability to handle complex military operations. This matters a lot when considering Chinese plans with Taiwan.

You can find the article here

3. How to Navigate the Shifting International Order:A Conversation With Finnish President Alexander Stubb

The first two articles are about how ‘big powers’ behave and point to them using their military more and more. This recommendation is not an article but a podcast with the Finnish President. If you don’t know, the Finnish President is playing an important role from a European perspective as his golf skills give him a more direct access to Trump (it is crazy though that such things can matter so much).

But on top of that, he has been very good at explaining the issues with the international system and how it’s in need of substantial reform if it doesn’t want to collapse into dangerous power competition. The words are less strong than the ones of Marc Carney, but extremely accurate in describing the international system as well.

You can find it here or directly on YouTube here

💭 My takeaway from the last two weeks:

For my takeaway, I’m going to get a bit theoretical. The three articles all point to a similar dynamic. Things are becoming more unstable and so military power becomes central again.

To understand why this is happening, the hegemonic stability theory might help you. The idea is simple, it’s that the international order is only as stable as the dominant power that upholds it. It’s not saying anything whether it’s good or bad (because the question is then for who?). It says that if there’s a hegemonic power, the international system is open and stable because the main power, which in this case is the US, provides many of the public goods for it to remain open.

But when that dominant power weakens, retreats, or becomes unpredictable, the system fractures. A transactional and increasingly disengaged United States is creating such a void.

Now, you might think there is a tension in saying the US is disengaging, while at the same time amassing warships in the Gulf and considering strikes on Iran.

But it actually is not a contradiction.

It is part of the same logic: selective, transactional force, rather than the kind of consistent, rules-based engagement that stabilises a system.

Disengaged doesn’t mean passive, it means that they are pulling back from providing the public goods that keep the international system stable.

Of course, these theories don’t predict the future, but right now, they fit pretty well. If you only have time for one, go with the podcast.

Happy readings,

Dr Cedric Pfanner

(I’m now going to sign my newsletters with my real name from now on actually)