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CDS’s Substack · Mar 21, 2026

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 21.03.26

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CDS · CDS’s Substack

On the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attacked near Sopych, in the direction of Ulanove, near Kindrativka, Novomykolayivka, and Oleksiivka, in the direction of Potapivka, Nova Sich, and Mala Korchakovka, near Yunakivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Sopych.

On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attacked near Zelene, Prylipka, Lyman, Starytsya, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Hrafske, and Tykhe, in the direction of Zybine, Bochkovе, Okhrymivka, and Verkhnya Pysarivka, near Chuhunivka.

On the Kupyansk Direction, Russian forces fought in the eastern part of Kurylivka, attempted to advance in Olhivka, attacked near Kupyansk, Fyholivka, Krasne Pershe, Petropavlivka, and Pishchane, in the direction of Hlushkivka, Novoplatonivka, Borivska Andriivka, Nadiia, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Novoserhiyivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Serednie, in the direction of Korovyi Yar.

Ukrainian Defense Forces completed clearing Kupyansk of enemy forces and struck an anti-aircraft technical battery position near Dovzhansk.

On the Sloviansk Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the south of Yampil. Russian forces attacked near Lyman and Drobysheve, in the direction of Svyatohirsk, near Zarichne and Dibrova, in the direction of Staryi Karavan, near Platonivka, in the direction of Riznykivka, Kryva Luka, and Zakitne, near Fedorivka Druha, in the direction of Rai-Oleksandrivka.

On the Kostyantynivka Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the southeastern part of Kostyantynivka and in the center of Minkivka and control the Shevchenko neighborhood in the southwest of Chasiv Yar, which hampers the enemy’s envelopment of Kostyantynivka.

Russian forces attempted to advance north of Novopavlivka, attacked near Kostyantynivka, in the direction of Malynivka, near Kleban-Byk, Pleshchiivka, Illinivka, and Stepanivka, in the direction of Dovha Balka, near Rusyn Yar, Sofiivka, and Novopavlivka.

On the Pokrovsk Direction, Russian forces attacked in the direction of Kucheriv Yar, near Vilne, Novyi Donbas, and Toretske, attempted to advance southwest of Bilytske, attacked near Pokrovsk, Hryshyne, and Novooleksandrivka, in the direction of Serhiivka and Shevchenkove, near Rodynske, Sukhetske, Myrnohrad, Kotlyne, Udachne, and Novopidhorodnie.

Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy assault along the E50 Pokrovsk–Pavlohrad highway with UAV strikes.

On the Oleksandrivka Direction, Russian forces attacked near Novomykolayivka, Filiya, Ternove, Kalynivske, Krasnohirske, Zlahoda, Sichneve, and Sosnivka.

On the Huliaypole Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the center of Hirke, on the western outskirts of Zaliznychne, and on the eastern outskirts of Myrne, and are operating in areas west and south of Hirke.

Russian forces attacked near Olenokostyantynivka, in the direction of Verkhnya Tersa, Vozdvyzhivka, and Rizdvyanka, near Zelene, Dobropillya, Solodke, Zalizne, and Myrne, in the direction of Huliaypilske.

On the Orikhiv Direction, enemy infantry groups infiltrated northeast of Mala Tokmachka. Russian forces attacked near Luhivske, Stepove, Prymorske, Stepnohirsk, and Richne.

Ukrainian Defense Forces struck infrastructure at the Vostochnyi training range near Novopetrovske.

Supporting operation:

  • Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Taman 500 kV electrical substation near Starotytarivska in Krasnodar Krai, and the Alchevsk metallurgical plant in the occupied Alchevsk, Luhansk Oblast which produces artillery shells and manufactures and repairs armored vehicles.

Overall assessment of changes in the operational situation:

  • Exaggerated claims by Russian military command about alleged advances or seizure of new settlements hamper Russian forces’ ability to effectively maneuver mobile reconnaissance and strike assets to provide fire support to specific front sectors or transition to defense when necessary.

  • Forces of the 20th Combined Arms Army employ infantry that has received minimal week-long training. The level of unit cohesion among enemy units has deteriorated compared to the end of 2025.

  • On the Huliaypole Direction, Russian forces conduct massed infantry assaults approximately every 3–5 days, sometimes employing motorcycles and light vehicles.

  • On the Prydniprovske Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully disrupt enemy logistics in Oleshky and on the Dnipro river islands by intercepting supply UAVs.

Change in the line of contact (LoC), directions of attacks and counterattacks:

  • There were 161 combat engagements on various fronts.

  • On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk Directions, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy assaults.

  • On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, the enemy assaulted Defense Forces unit positions 7 times near Vovchanski Khutory, Vovchansk, Okhrymivka, Prylipka, Zelene, and Starytsya.

  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked twice in the direction of Novoplatonivka and Kurylivka.

  • On the Sloviansk Direction, 8 enemy attempts to advance near Drobysheve, in the area of Rai-Oleksandrivka, Yampil, and Platonivka were stopped.

  • On the Kostyantynivka Direction, the enemy carried out 22 attacks near Kostyantynivka, Pleshchiivka, Illinivka, Rusyn Yar, and Sofiivka.

  • On the Pokrovsk Direction, 32 enemy assault actions were stopped in the areas of Rodynske, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novomykolayivka, Novopavlivka, Filiya, and Bilyakivka.

  • On the Oleksandrivka Direction, the enemy attacked three times in the areas of Ternove, Krasnohirske, and Kalynivske.

  • On the Huliaypole Direction, 21 enemy attacks took place in the areas of Dobropillya, Zaliznychne, Zelene, Staroukrainka, Varvarivka, and Luhivske.

  • On the Orikhiv Direction, one combat engagement took place in the area of Stepnohirsk.

  • On the Prydniprovske Direction, Ukrainian units repelled an enemy attack toward the Antonivskyi Bridge.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 49th Separate Tank Battalion of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps operates in Sumy Oblast.

  • The 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army operates near Drobysheve and Novoselivka.

  • The 1008th and 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps strike in Kostyantynivka; the 57th Separate SOF Company strikes near Mykolaypillya and Torske.

  • The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army operates east of Novohryhorivka; the 14th Separate SOF Brigade operates near Oleksandrivka and Dibrova.

  • The 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army operates near Svyatopetrivka; the 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army strikes in the center of Hirke and in the west of Zaliznychne; the 8th detachment strikes in the eastern part of Myrne; bombers of the 11th Army of the Air Force and Air Defense carry out airstrikes in Lyubytske and Nizhnytsia.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • Two offensive operations should be expected starting from the end of April 2026 — the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk and the Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia operations. The disruption of the enemy’s summer offensive will lead to a prolonged loss of offensive capabilities, depletion of resources, and will provide a real chance to end the war. The Lyman, Sloviansk, and Kostyantynivka Directions are acquiring strategic significance, as the enemy’s military-political leadership is urgently requiring several convincing operational victories that can be presented as victory in the entire war.

  • The enemy “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping will continue to operate simultaneously along the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, and the Velykyi Burluk Direction and will attempt to seize as large an area as possible in Sumy Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast with the aim of subsequent political bargaining for their exchange for territories in Donetsk Oblast that the enemy will be unable to seize.

  • On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, in the Vovchansk area, the enemy “Belgorod–Kharkov” Tactical Group will continue attempts to break through along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets in the southern direction and advance as far as possible in the Vovchansk–Bilyi Kolodyaz direction. Attempting to advance in the general Vovchansk–Staryi Saltiv direction, the Tactical Group command will try to secure the right flank of its main forces, which will advance toward Bilyi Kolodyaz.

  • In the Kupyansk area, Russian forces will attack along the Pishchane–Kurylivka line and further toward Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, as well as along the Kolisnykivka–Hlushkivka line and further toward Kivsharivka and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. The 6th Combined Arms Army of the enemy “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping will advance simultaneously on three directions: toward Staryi Saltiv, Velykyi Burluk, and in the Kupyansk area. The army’s troops will advance in the Krasne Pershe–Novovasylivka and Dvorichna–Ridkodub directions, attack in the Milove–Ambarne direction with the aim of capturing the latter and will try to outflank from the north and south the defensive strongpoint of the 16th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kolodyazne area. The 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army will attempt to eliminate the bridgehead of the 16th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Oskil east of Kupyansk.

  • On the Sloviansk Direction, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army will break through to the Mykolaivka–Nykanorivka line and, with part of its forces, to the Vasylivska Pustosh–Vasyutynske line, in order to reach the near approaches to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk respectively.

  • On the Kostyantynivka direction, the enemy “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will attempt to seize the Druzhkivka–Kostyantynivka agglomeration by enveloping the flanks of Kostyantynivka, while simultaneously breaking through to the near approaches to Druzhkivka, after which it will assault Kostyantynivka and push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Druzhkivka area under the threat of encirclement. Enemy forces will advance toward the Malotaranivka–Semenivka–Bilokuzmynivka–Komyshuvakha area north of Druzhkivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces will be forced to withdraw from the area between Kostyantynivka and the Kleban-Byk Reservoir under the threat of encirclement to the area north of road T0504, which will slow the assault actions of the enemy’s 3rd Army Corps in Kostyantynivka.

  • On the Dobropillya Direction, in the near term the enemy will attempt to break through to the northwest, striking with the adjacent flanks of the 2nd and 51st Combined Arms Armies and breaking through to the Novohryshyne–Dobropillya (village)–Chernihivka–Shevchenko area, i.e. reaching the near approaches to Dobropillya city from the south. In the operational zone of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping, Russian forces can no longer simultaneously break through to Dobropillya from the south, southeast, and east, meaning they are already forced to accomplish this task sequentially. It is likely that the 2nd Combined Arms Army will first break through from the direction of Pokrovsk to the near approaches to Dobropillya from the south, after which the main effort of the “”Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping command will shift to the 51st Combined Arms Army’s sector, which will break through to the city from the east and southeast, following which the assault on Dobropillya will begin.

  • On the Oleksandrivka Direction, units of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, operating on the left flank of the 29th Combined Arms Army, will be forced to withdraw to the Voskresenka–Maliivka line and attempt to hold it; the forces of the 29th Combined Arms Army as a whole will be forced to withdraw from the Vovcha river on their left flank.

  • On the Huliaypole Direction, the 5th Combined Arms Army will in the near term attempt to break through to the Verkhnya Tersa–Huliaypilske line, with its forward units already pushing in the direction of Verkhnya Tersa from Zaliznychne and Zelene and attacking along the Huliaypole–Orikhiv road toward Huliaypilske from Zaliznychne and from Dorozhnyanka. In addition, the army will attempt to restore its positions along the Khaychur river.

  • On the Orikhiv Direction, after several failed attempts to bring Mala Tokmachka and the surrounding area under control from the west, the 76th Air Assault Division will shift its main effort axis to the northeast — along the Bilohirya–Luhivske line — in an attempt to support the advance on the adjacent flank of the 5th and 35th Combined Arms Armies, which are operating southwest of Huliaypole and have advanced in the area of Myrne and north of Zahirne.

  • On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 21.03.26

Personnel - almost 1,286 940 (+1,240);

Tanks – 11,790 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles ‒ 24,262 (+8);

Artillery systems – 38,608 (+39);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,691 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,333 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 84,518 (+144);

Aircraft - 435 (0);

Helicopters – 350 (+1);

UAV operational and tactical level – 188,985 (+1,781);

Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 4,468 (0);

Boats/ships – 35 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, on the night of 21 March the enemy attacked Ukraine with 154 UAVs, including around 90 Shahed-type drones. Air defense forces managed to shoot down or suppress 148 drones. Hits from 5 strike UAVs were recorded at 4 locations, with debris falling at 7 more. As of the morning of 21 March, the attack was ongoing, with several enemy drones still airborne.

  • An enemy strike on 21 March destroyed a private house in Zaporizhzhia where an entire family was living — a man and a woman were killed and two children were injured. It subsequently emerged that four more adults were injured in the city.

  • According to the Chernihiv City Council and Ukrzaliznytsia, Chernihiv was left completely without power as a result of overnight Russian strikes on energy infrastructure facilities in the Oblast. The loss of voltage in the overhead contact network caused delays to a number of trains in Chernihiv Oblast. The city of Slavutych in Kyiv Oblast was also left without electricity — nearly 21,000 residents lost power as a result of a Russian attack.

  • According to Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration head Ivan Fedorov, on Saturday afternoon of 21 March Russian forces attacked critical infrastructure facilities in Zaporizhzhia. The strikes caused power outages in some districts of the city, and blast waves damaged windows in buildings near the impact sites. Preliminary reports indicate no casualties.

  • According to the Sumy City Council, Russian occupiers struck the grounds of a preschool in the Velykochernechynsky village community of Sumy community with a Molniya UAV. The strike damaged windows and doors in the kindergarten building, though preliminary reports indicate no casualties. The enemy also attacked the community’s territory with four guided aerial bombs; the consequences of these strikes are still being assessed.

  • According to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration head Oleksandr Hanzha, throughout Saturday 21 March Russian occupiers attacked Synelnykivsky and Nikopolsky districts of the Oblast more than 30 times with UAVs, killing two men and injuring five more people. Among the casualties in Nikopol district are two children aged 7 and 18, as well as women, one of whom is in serious condition. Enemy strikes damaged infrastructure, private houses, shops, and vehicles in settlements across both districts.

  • According to the Izium City Military Administration, on the evening of 20 March Russian occupiers carried out a massed guided aerial bomb strike on Izium community in Kharkiv Oblast. Hits were recorded in the Verkhnye Selyshche area, causing civilian casualties. Damage to buildings was also recorded and some consumers were left without electricity.

  • According to the Bring Kids Back UA initiative, on 19 March 2026 the Southern District Military Court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced three Ukrainian teenagers from temporarily occupied Melitopol to between 7 and 8.5 years in prison on terrorism charges. Viktor Azarovskyi received 8 years and 6 months, Oleh Shokol 7 years and 6 months, and Denys Vasylyk 7 years; the boys were only 16–17 years old at the time of their arrest in autumn 2023. The Russian side tried the Ukrainian children as its own citizens in closed proceedings, disregarding the illegality of their transfer to detention facilities in Mariupol and Taganrog. Over more than two years, the boys were subjected to torture, beatings, and psychological pressure, resulting in serious health problems, particularly for Viktor Azarovskyi.

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