RSS Amplifier

CDS’s Substack · Mar 13, 2026

Russia’s war on Ukraine. 13.03.26

0
Sign in to vote or save

CDS · CDS’s Substack

On the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attacked near Borky and Myropillya.

On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attacked near Vovchanski Khutory, Prylypky, and Symynivka, in the direction of Zybine and Vesele.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked south of Hrafske and hold positions on the southeastern outskirts of Vovchansk, impeding enemy advance toward Bilyi Kolodyaz.

On the Kupyansk Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions in Kurylivka and struck an S-300V launcher near Borovenky, a logistics depot, an ammunition depot near Dubivske, and a fuel train near Dovzhansk.

Russian forces attacked in the direction of Kupyansk, Podoly, Hlushkivka, Novoplatonivka, and Cherneshchyna.

On the Sloviansk Direction, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and Drobysheve, in the direction of Stavky, near Svyatohirsk, Dronivka, Kalenyky, Rai-Oleksandrivka, Riznykivka, Kryva Luka, Zakitne, Fedorivka, Fedorivka Druha, and Nykyforivka. The 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army struck a Defense Forces unit observation post southwest of Kryva Luka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Lyman.

On the Kostyantynivka Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced on the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and counterattacked near Illinivka.

Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka, Minkivka, Ivanopillya, Pleshchiivka, Berestok, Illinivka, Stepanivka, Rusyn Yar, and Sofiivka, in the direction of Novopavlivka, Pavlivka, Torske, and Pryiut.

On the Pokrovsk Direction, Russian forces seized Hryshyne and the Pokrovska mine north of Udachne, attempted to advance east of Hryshyne and northwest of Udachne, attacked in the direction of Kucheriv Yar, near Nove Shakhove and Vilne, in the direction of Novyi Donbas, near Ivanivka and Hryshyne, in the direction of Shevchenkove, near Rodynske, Bilytske, Sukhetske, Myrnohrad, and Svitle, in the direction of Novooleksandrivka and Serhiivka, near Kotlyne, Udachne, Novopidhorodnie, and Molodetske.

Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions south of Bilytske.

On the Oleksandrivka Direction, Russian forces attacked near Muravka, Novomykolayivka, and Ternove.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Novopavlivka, continued counterattacks near Andriivka, Novooleksandrivka, Vovche, Sosnivka, and north of Ivanivka, and struck a field artillery depot near Shyroka Balka, destroying more than 6,000 artillery rounds.

On the Huliaypole Direction, Russian forces attacked near Huliaypole, Olenokostyantynivka, Rizdvyanka, Tsvitkove, and Verkhnya Tersa, in the direction of Vozdvyzhivka, near Danylivka, Zelene, Dobropillya, Zlahoda, Rybne, Zalizne, Hirke, and Myrne.

On the Orikhiv Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced southeast of Novodanylivka and struck an enemy observation post near Vasylivka, an artillery brigade repair company near Yakymivka, a Tor-M2 air defense system west of Berdyanske, four facilities of the “Rubikon” Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and the concentration area of the “Rubikon-7” reserve unit in Probudzhennya.

Russian forces attacked near Stepnohirsk, in the direction of Magdalynivka, Novodanylivka, and Stepove, and struck a bridge near Zaporizhzhia city, disrupting Ukrainian logistics.

On the Prydniprovske Direction, Russian forces continued local assaults near Bilohrudyi island.

Supporting operation:

  • Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the “Uralkhim” chemical plant in Kirovo-Chepetsk; the Tikhoretsk oil pumping hub; a compressor station in Hai-Kodzor, Krasnodar Krai; struck a fuel depot in Azovske with an FP-2 UAV; and struck a Sopka-2 radar, a 48Ya6-K1 Podlet radar near Vynohradne, a P-18 Terek radar, a 39N6 Kasta-2E2 radar, a Geran/Herber UAV ground relay station, and an RSP-6M2 radar in Crimea.

  • The “Atesh” partisan group disabled a railway relay cabinet near Stary Oskol in Belgorod Oblast, disrupting urgent ammunition delivery for the 122nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army in the Kupyansk area.

General conclusion:

  • Ukrainian Defense Forces have effectively halted the advance of Russian forces in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, although forces of the 44th Army Corps and the 6th Combined Arms Army continue attempts to advance southward along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets river in the direction of Hrafske and Symynivka.

  • On the Sloviansk Direction, the Starlink disruption is forcing Russian forces to control UGVs using remote control rather than network systems, creating operational inefficiency. Prior to the Starlink disruption, Russian forces used UAVs for logistics but are now relying on Mavic UAVs to supply forward positions. The enemy’s efforts to establish logistics bridges are only 10% successful due to Ukrainian Defense Forces air defense efforts.

  • On the Sloviansk Direction, Russian forces are preparing to resume the offensive in spring. During this period, the occupiers intensify attacks on Ukrainian Defense Forces logistics, while Ukrainian units strike enemy UAV operator positions.

  • Russian forces are accumulating infantry, UAV operators, and armored vehicles, including tanks, in the occupied part of Chasiv Yar in preparation for the spring offensive and have increased airstrike intensity on average from three to five strikes per day. Ukrainian Defense Forces destroy or suppress between 100 and 150 enemy UAVs daily.

  • Russian forces recently reduced the intensity of attacks on Kucheriv Yar and on the Dorizhne–Novyi Donbas and Nove Shakhove–Vilne directions to a minimum. Constant Ukrainian Defense Forces UAV strikes on the Pokrovsk Direction force Russian forces to hold positions in building basements for months without resupply or rotation.

  • Losses sustained by the enemy in fighting for Pokrovsk have forced Russian forces to pause their offensive. The 51st Combined Arms Army also sustained significant losses during fighting for Myrnohrad, forcing it to reduce attack intensity. The enemy attacks only sporadically on the Rodynske–Shevchenko and Sukhetske–Bilytske directions. The 2nd Combined Arms Army is attempting to advance through Hryshyne toward Novooleksandrivka. Enemy advances in the direction of Dobropillya will force Russian military command to transfer resources from the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk Direction and significantly reinforce the 51st and 2nd Combined Arms Armies.

  • On the Oleksandrivka Direction, the Starlink disruption significantly disorganized enemy command and control, FPV drone employment, and reconnaissance UAV operations, enabling successful Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces exploit the dispersed nature of enemy positions on the direction to advance with infantry groups on foot or in armored vehicles and use heavy UAVs both to strike Russian positions and to resupply infantry groups.

  • On the Orikhiv Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully intercept enemy “Molniya” UAVs at altitudes above 1 km and have begun employing long-range E-300 UAVs against targets closer to the front line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Change in the line of contact (LoC), directions of attacks and counterattacks:

  • There were 154 combat engagements on various fronts.

  • On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk Directions, the enemy attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces positions once.

  • On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, the enemy attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines toward Zybine.

  • On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked three times in the direction of Podoly and Hlushkivka.

  • On the Sloviansk Direction, 15 enemy attempts to penetrate the Ukrainian defense toward Stavky, Lyman, and Drobysheve, and to advance toward Kryva Luka, Rai-Oleksandrivka, and Riznykivka, and in the areas of Yampil, Zakitne, and Platonivka were stopped.

  • On the Kostyantynivka Direction, the enemy carried out 28 attacks toward Kostyantynivka, Illinivka, Ivanopillya, Stepanivka, Novopavlivka, and Sofiivka, and in the areas of Pleshchiivka and Rusyn Yar.

  • On the Pokrovsk Direction, 27 enemy assault actions were stopped in the areas of Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novomykolayivka, and Novopidhorodnie, and toward Kucheriv Yar, Novooleksandrivka, Bilytske, Hryshyne, and Novopavlivka.

  • On the Oleksandrivka Direction, the enemy attacked 8 times in the areas of Rybne, Berezove, Oleksandrohrad, and Novohryhorivka.

  • On the Huliaypole Direction, 28 enemy attacks took place in the areas of Huliaypole, Myrne, and Zelene, and toward Dobropillya, Zaliznychne, and Olenokostyantynivka.

  • On the Orikhiv Direction, 2 combat engagements took place toward Prymorske and in the area of Stepnohirsk.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade operates near Yablunivka.

  • The 3rd Battalion of the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps operates near Vovchansk; the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, the 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps, and the 204th Separate SOF Regiment operate on the Kharkiv Direction.

  • The 245th and 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiments and the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army operate east of Kupyansk. The 121st and 122nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army operate near Kupyansk. The 7th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 47th Tank Division strikes in the north of Kivsharivka; the 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army operates on the Borova Direction.

  • The 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army operates near Novoselivka; the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army operates on the Sloviansk Direction.

  • The 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps, the 1008th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps, and the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army strike in Kostyantynivka; the 27th Artillery Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division strikes near Kostyantynivka; the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army strikes near Toretske.

  • The 55th Marine Infantry Division of the Pacific Fleet operates near Dobropillya; the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 57th Separate SOF Regiment strike south of Bilytske.

  • The 14th Separate SOF Brigade intercepts Ukrainian Defense Forces UAVs near Sosnivka and strikes near Sosnivka and Kolomiytsi, west of Vozdvyzhivka.

  • Units of the “Rubikon” Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies strike near and within Dolynka; bombers of the 11th Army of the Aerospace Forces Air Force and Air Defense strike near Vozdvyzhivka and Verkhnya Tersa.

  • The 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army strikes near Novodanylivka and on the outskirts of Orikhiv.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy has begun preparations for this year’s summer campaign. Two offensive operations should be expected starting from the end of April 2026 — the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk and the Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia operations. The disruption of the enemy’s summer offensive will lead to a prolonged loss of offensive capabilities, depletion of resources, and will provide a real chance to end the war. The Lyman, Sloviansk, and Kostyantynivka Directions are acquiring strategic significance, as the enemy’s military-political leadership is urgently requiring several convincing operational victories that can be presented as victory in the entire war.

  • The enemy “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping will continue to operate simultaneously along the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, and the Velykyi Burluk Direction and will attempt to seize as large an area as possible in Sumy Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast with the aim of subsequent political bargaining for their exchange for territories in Donetsk Oblast that the enemy will be unable to seize.

  • On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, in the Vovchansk area, the enemy “Belgorod–Kharkov” Tactical Group will continue attempts to break through along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets in the southern direction and advance as far as possible in the Vovchansk–Bilyi Kolodyaz direction. Attempting to advance in the general Vovchansk–Staryi Saltiv direction, the Tactical Group command will try to secure the right flank of its main forces, which will advance toward Bilyi Kolodyaz.

  • In the Kupyansk area, Russian forces will intensify operations along the Pishchane–Kurylivka line and further toward Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, as well as along the Kolisnykivka–Hlushkivka line and further toward Kivsharivka and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. The 6th Combined Arms Army of the enemy “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping will advance simultaneously on three directions: toward Staryi Saltiv, Velykyi Burluk, and in the Kupyansk area. The army’s troops will attempt to advance from the Dvorichanske bridgehead in the Krasne Pershe–Novovasylivka and Dvorichna–Ridkodub directions, attack in the Milove–Ambarne direction with the aim of capturing the latter and will try to outflank from the north and south the defensive strongpoint of the 16th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kolodyazne area. The 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army will attempt to eliminate the bridgehead of the 16th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Oskil east of Kupyansk.

  • On the Sloviansk Direction, the command of the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army has an immediate task to reach the Mykolaivka – Nykanorivka line with its main forces, that is, to reach the near approaches to Sloviansk from the east, and reach the Vasylivska Pustosh – Vasyutynske line with part of its forces, that is, the near approaches to Kramatorsk from the east.

  • On the Kostyantynivka direction, the enemy “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will attempt to seize the Druzhkivka–Kostyantynivka agglomeration by enveloping the flanks of Kostyantynivka, while simultaneously breaking through to the near approaches to Druzhkivka, after which it will seize Kostyantynivka by assault and push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Druzhkivka area under the threat of encirclement. Enemy forces will advance toward the Malotaranivka–Semenivka–Bilokuzmynivka–Komyshuvakha area north of Druzhkivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces will be forced to withdraw from the area between Kostyantynivka and the Kleban-Byk Reservoir under the threat of encirclement to the area north of road T0504, which will slow the assault actions of the enemy’s 3rd Army Corps in Kostyantynivka.

  • On the Dobropillya Direction, in the near term the enemy will attempt to break through to the northwest, striking with the adjacent flanks of the 2nd and 51st Combined Arms Armies and breaking through to the Novohryshyne–Dobropillya (village)–Chernihivka–Shevchenko area, i.e. reaching the near approaches to Dobropillya city from the south. In the operational zone of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping, Russian forces can no longer simultaneously break through to Dobropillya from the south, southeast, and east, meaning they are already forced to accomplish this task sequentially. It is likely that the 2nd Combined Arms Army will first break through from the direction of Pokrovsk to the near approaches to Dobropillya from the south, after which the main effort of the “”Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping command will shift to the 51st Combined Arms Army’s sector, which will break through to the city from the east and southeast, following which the assault on Dobropillya will begin.

  • Should Ukrainian Defense Forces continue advancing south along both banks of the Yanchur river and reach the Uspenivka area, the enemy’s 5th Combined Arms Army will be forced to halt its offensive and redeploy its right flank to face north to avoid a breakthrough by the Defense Forces’ 10th Army Corps into its rear. The army’s troops will have to withdraw from positions north of Huliaypole (along the Khaychur river). The situation for the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping may deteriorate further if Ukrainian Defense Forces break through to Temyrivka, in which case a gap of up to 8 km along the front will open between the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies.

  • On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.03.26

Personnel - almost 1,277 620 (+860);

Tanks – 11,773 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles ‒ 24,202 (+5);

Artillery systems – 38,369 (+50);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,685 (+4);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,331 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 83,223 (+189);

Aircraft - 435 (0);

Helicopters – 349 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 175,139 (+2,071);

Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 4,403 (0);

Boats/ships – 33 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

  • According to the Ukrainian Air Force, on the night of 13 March Russian forces attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 126 strike UAVs — “Shahed,” “Gerbera,” “Italmas,” and other types. Around 80 of the drones were” Shaheds.” By 08:00 a.m., Ukrainian air defense had shot down or suppressed 117 enemy UAVs. The missile and 8 strike drones scored hits at 7 locations, with debris falling at 5 more. The attack continued, with several drones still airborne.

  • On the night of 13 March, Russian forces struck the city of Balakliia in Kharkiv Oblast, with hits recorded in residential areas.

  • According to Kupyansk District Military Administration head Andrii Kanashevych, on the morning of 13 March Russian forces struck a scheduled passenger bus travelling from Kharkiv to Velykyi Burluk. The attack occurred at around 09:15 on the road near the village of Nova Oleksandrivka. The Russian munition was preliminarily identified as loaded with fragmentation submunitions. Three people were killed and four more were injured.

  • On the evening of 12 March, Russian forces attacked port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast with strike drones, damaging a food warehouse.

  • According to the Kherson and Sumy Oblast Military Administrations, Russian attacks on 13 March killed one woman and injured nine people. In Hlukhivska community in Sumy Oblast, a guided aerial bomb strike on a residential area injured three civilians, two of whom were hospitalized. In Kherson Oblast, a 52-year-old woman was killed near the village of Nova Kamianka in an FPV drone attack. In Dariivka, a UAV strike injured a 27-year-old man and four women, who were diagnosed with acute stress reaction.

  • According to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Council head Mykola Lukashuk, Russian forces attacked Nikopolsky and Synelnykivsky districts with drones and artillery throughout the day. In Nikopolsky district, the district center and the communities of Chervonohryhorivska, Pokrovska, and Marhanetska came under attack, with a private house, outbuildings, an agribusiness, and a power line damaged. In Synelnykivsky district, UAV attacks on Mezhivska and Dubovykivska communities injured a 37-year-old man and damaged a private house and infrastructure facilities.

  • According to the Office of the Prosecutor General and the National Police, law enforcement officers have identified 13 collaborators who committed war crimes during the occupation of Izium in Kharkiv Oblast. Among those identified are 11 combatants, a deputy of the so-called “LNR,” and the head of the “DNR union of cinematographers.” Between April and September 2022, they robbed and tortured local residents, holding them in metal containers without food or water. Through beatings and threats, the perpetrators extracted information about ATO veterans and military personnel. The collaborators filmed the torture to produce propaganda videos about the “elimination of Banderites,” for which they received commendations from Russian leadership.

  • According to Eurostat data cited by Deputy Minister of Social Policy Ilona Havronska, more than 4.3 million Ukrainians currently hold temporary protection status in EU countries. The largest numbers are in Germany — 1,260,230 — followed by Poland with 965,990 and the Czech Republic with 397,185. During 2025, authorities issued 683,395 new protection decisions, down 14% from 2024. According to Havronska, the security situation remains the primary factor keeping citizens from returning home.

No posts

Read the original on cdsdailybrief.substack.com

Comments

Nothing yet. Say the first thing.

    Sign in to join the conversation.