The Analogue: Why the doctrine that has held since 2008 was built for the cases where oil rose and fell.

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The Federal Reserve's look-through doctrine works when energy shocks mean-revert. The 1973–74 OPEC episode is the case where it didn't, and the modern record shows the framework cannot tell, in real time, which kind of shock it is operating on. The Iran war presents four channels — chokepoint tolls, alliance fracture, reserve diversification, fiscal commitment — on which the price is unlikely to…

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