As we all have heard, whether it be for Andrea’s interviews or endless tweets, or even my analysis, Zenith Energy had their ICSID hearing last week, regarding their $580mn claim (their ICC claims bundled, with some additions).
Now, as ICSID procedure dictates, we have absolutely no idea how it went. We’ll find out at the earlier of a tribunal decision or settlement. I suppose Zenith, technically, could withdraw all of a sudden for ‘unspecified reasons’, but that’s very unlikely - it’d be a hell of a waste of five years.
Anyway, onto what I came to write about...
Yesterday (28th Apr ‘26 for those looking back), the Presidency of the Tunisian Republic announced something very indicative of their internal affairs -
They dismissed the Ministry of Industry, Energy, and Mines; Fatma Thabet Chiboub, without stating reason
Each part of that sentence is as important as the other. As only a genius could figure out, you can piece together that she was responsible for Tunisia’s energy / mining portfolio, and therefor plays a central role in how Zenith’s expropriated oil assets were managed.
Admitting Corruption
What’s more, beyond Tunisia already acknowledging that they withheld Zenith’s Robbana and Bibane concessions (14th April announcement), reports note that in a meeting with the PM, the Tunisian Republic President, Kais Saeid, said something very interesting in support of Tunisia’s governance...
They are actively trying to remove pockets of reaction, subservience, and corruption’.
This goes very well with the removal of Fatma Chiboub. The President has acknowledged corruption took place, and after a hearing in front of an ICSID tribunal, has dismissed the person mainly responsible. If only that got them out of the hole...
Curious Timing
The hearing last week, dismissal this week. Hell of a coincidence. Of course the dismissal takes a while to process, and we can’t surely pin it down to consequence, but she was appointed to Ahmed Hachani’s government on the 24th January 2024. Hell of a coincidence.
As you can’t say it’s linked, but you also couldn’t call it a coincidence (too improbable), it’s probably somewhere in the middle: Tunisia realised some time earlier this year, or whenever (specifics don’t matter), that despite the Zenith ICC2 loss, their policies may not fare so well when presented to an ICSID tribunal, so the hearing just tipped the needle for them. There can also be other reasons involving other enterprises, obviously.
Bottom line, it’s possible that the hearing didn’t go so well for Tunisia, and they realised they need to change their tune.
A More Cynical View
Tunisia may also view Fatma Chiboub as the scapegoat - someone to get rid of and claim a change of policies is underway, when in reality they’re getting someone who can do a better job of avoiding these things. The main argument for this would be that tendencies don’t really change, and the corruption is so embedded in their system that their incentives are skewed so far that the removal of one minister will not result in a meaningful change in policy, so I consider this view improbable.
Then again, so much goes on behind closed doors (like the actual hearing), and so I am merely speculating, something I tend to avoid forming any view-altering conclusions on. It’s just something to be aware of, and will only be clear in retrospect. That said, at the least this is no bad thing, and t’s unlikely to be of no effect in the eyes of the tribunal - it’s an energy case, and Fatma was the Minister of Energy
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