International Arbitration Focus, Trifurcation Rejection, Equity-Linked Comp, and Management Additions

Date: 15/05/2026

Before I get into the update, if you have not already familiarised yourself with the actual legal case and it’s merits, see our writeup:

Authorship date: 24th Feb

Procedural Development

Trifurcation ruling

On the 6th May 2026, the tribunal decided that trifurcation (like ‘Bifurcation’), which would have split the case into three stage - 1) addressing the Tribunal’s jurisdiction; 2) addressing Ghana’s liability, and; 3) addressing any damages issues (if needed) – would not be appropriate at this stage. That last bit, ‘at this stage’, is an important technicality, which investors often ignore, but something rejected once does not mean the same will happen again. By that same logic, annulment would never occur. Things change, and in PCA proceedings one is never in the clear. It is, however, favorable as it diminishes the probability of trifurcation at a later stages. This will help the proceedings maintain a usual schedule, which is valuable in itself - a delay would make the tribunal’s decision more complex as more time / information passes. Of course we want full information to be presented, otherwise what kind of a case would we have, but you know.

CEO Commentary (Andrew Cavaghan): We welcome the Tribunal’s decision which ensures the merits of the Company’s Treaty claims will now be decided by the international tribunal on a single, consolidated track much more quickly and efficiently than it would otherwise have been. Blue Gold remains focused on advancing its claims in a disciplined and constructive manner, while remaining open to a constructive resolution with the Republic of Ghana, for as long as this remains possible

Corporate Developments

Blue Gold has also undergone several corporate developments, for the better…

Shift from Domestic to International Arbitration

They have since stated the majority of their focus, as far as it is required, will be directed at handing the dispute over to an international tribunal, but they don’t intend to pursue any other legal avenues in Ghanaian domestic courts. Surprise surprise - who would want to deal with them again? It reminds me, on a slightly more light hearted note, of when people ask me why the claimant wouldn’t just take their project back - if you lived in a city where the government kept forcibly locking you out, so you take it to court and you have the choice between cash and the house, you’d have to be mad to choose the house.

Incentives and Management Compensation

The management have also further aligned incentives in switching their compensation structure over solely to equity, which partnered with the prioritisation of the case, is at least no bad thing. Their payment is contingent on value creation / the resulting stock price, which should help the stock trade nearer fair value in the future.

CEO Commentary: “I strongly believe in the underlying value of Blue Gold and the significant disconnect between our current market valuation and our asset base and strategic positioning,” said Cavaghan. “Transitioning to 100% equity compensation reflects my conviction in the Company’s future and my commitment to long-term value creation for shareholders. This structure ensures that my incentives are fully aligned with investors — I only benefit if our shareholders benefit, and that outcome is tied to meaningful appreciation in our share price over the coming years.”

Management Additions

The company has added Gustavo Gomes as COO, who has about 40 years experience including (but not limited to) across BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and Arcelor Mittal. He is known for ‘delivering operational excellence, scaling complex assets, and driving value through disciplined execution’. Of course this is to be taken with a pinch of salt, and it doesn’t have so much to do with the case, but it’s a sign that the house is getting in order, which has utility insofar as we want to avoid any unnecessary stress on the management for the sake of their focus.

The more interesting addition, at least to us, is the appointment of Daniel Driscoll as Chief Legal Officer. Daniel is a ‘highly regarded natural resources executive and lawyer with nearly 20 years of experience across the mining and energy sectors’, adivising on international transactions, government relations (in a non-political way, I strongly assume), and restructurings etc, so his experience at Endeavour and Eni (separate) should help the company navigate the case.

Valuation Model

This is in the writeup, but to update the Market Cap...
[Apologies for the blurry-ness - I work from a perfectly average laptop]

So in summary, the incremental upside from the arbitration:

If You Have Any Questions

Disclosures

Sponsored Content: This report has been commissioned and financially compensated by Blue Gold Ltd (NASDAQ: BGL). The author has received cash compensation from Blue Gold Ltd in connection with the preparation and publication of this report.

Lacking Independence: Due to the sponsored nature of this report, the author cannot be considered an independent analyst. The views expressed herein may be influenced, directly or indirectly, by the commercial relationship between the author and Blue Gold Ltd.

Not Investment Advice: Nothing in this report constitutes investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell securities, or a recommendation of any kind. This report is provided for informational purposes only. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.

Forward-Looking Statements: This report may contain forward-looking statements, projections, or estimates. These are based on assumptions believed to be reasonable at the time of writing but are inherently uncertain. Actual results may differ materially. The author undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

No Warranty on Accuracy: While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of information presented, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its completeness or reliability. The author accepts no liability for any errors, omissions, or losses arising from use of this report.

Regulatory Notice (UK / FCA): This report has been produced by Case Research and is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It has not been approved by an FCA-authorised person under Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. It is intended for informational purposes only and is not directed at retail consumers in the United Kingdom. Recipients should obtain independent financial or legal advice before acting on any information contained herein.

Securities Disclosure: As of the date of publication, the author holds a direct position in the securities of Blue Gold Ltd. This holding represents a further material conflict of interest. The author may acquire or dispose of such securities in the future without further notice.