For those holding or considering a position in Emmerson Plc (AIM: EML), they released an RNS this morning re the arbitration timeline (AKA procedural order). It’s simple:
So now that Morocco’s bifurcation request (filed in July) has been rejected, the…
Morrocan Counter-Memorial: Jan 2027
Reply: October 2027 (unusually long time)
Morocco’s Rejoinder: January 2028
Hearing: 17-26 July 2028
Note: timelines are subject to change - a request could be filed, an arbitrator get sick, evidence conveniently surface; any number of things. It’s all human interaction after all. So given changes I will issue updates.
Managing the position: the usual model - if you don’t need the money, wait. If you are confident on the EV of any other arbitrations with nearer catalysts, you can rotate out of one position and into another. However, I reccomend doing that in part - binary risk is still involved. If you do not yet own a position, liquidity is about £15k a day and will likely ramp up on both inputs in the time surrounding catalysts (both buildup and fair market adjustments). If you are short the stock, you are holding a statistically unfavourable bet - based on ICSID averages (writing off the best law firm, funder, and legal merits entirely), it would be a 7x against your 100% upside provided no leverage, so not a great tradeoff. If you are levered on the stock, don’t be.
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