The Cardinals May Be Done, But They Can Still Be Interesting

As I write this, the next Cardinals starting pitcher is set to be Quinn Mathews. Mathews, a buzz-worthy prospect for a couple of years now, seems to be coming up to push everyone back a day. Not only have the long-term ramifications not been discussed, the short-term ones are in flux as well.

Most notably, we don’t know how he is getting on either the 40-man or the 26-man roster.

Getting on the 26-man isn’t terribly hard, as there are plenty of options there. The year has not been kind to Matt Svanson, who could go down to Memphis for a bit. It’d be surprising if the Cards changed course on Luis Gastelum this quickly, but it’s undeniable he’s had a rough start to his major league career.

Honestly, the 40-man and 26-man might be taken care of in the same pen stroke, as Peter Strzelecki, who wound up taking the loss this evening, could get in the DFA column that Jared Shuster has perfected (three time champion) and Scott Blewett, Matt Pushard, Chris Roycroft, and Bruce Zimmerman have dealt with. While it’s unfortunate for Mr. Strzelecki, especially since bullpen arms of any quality are of use to this team, that is the path of least resistance.

Or Chaim Bloom could pull the trigger, start the carousel, and start making trades.

On Wednesday night, Dustin May started against the Chicago Cubs. He was fully in command, looking exactly like the pitcher we hoped the Cardinals were getting when they signed him this past winter. After five innings, he had allowed no runs, one hit, two walks, and struck out three while throwing just 70 pitches.

And he was pulled from the game to hugs and well-wishes from the rest of the guys in the dugout.

It wasn’t quite #HugWatch, since a completed trade wasn’t the reason May was pulled early from his start. However, it was clear that the Cardinals weren’t going to risk injury to a player that they intend to deal off before 4 PM Central on Monday afternoon.

This is what we always expected, of course, from the very moment May became a Cardinal. The best-case scenario was that he would pitch well, rebuild his value, then get sent to a contender at the deadline. The fact that the Cardinals were contenders for much of the year put a wrinkle in things, but given that they are now two games under .500, the decisions are a lot easier for Bloom and company to explain to the fan base.

May’s been a great Cardinal and I’d love to see the two sides discuss a return this winter. However, it’s best for both sides if a deal gets done. The question is, when is going to happen?

It would be interesting to look back at the John Mozeliak era and see how many of his deals were done on deadline day, how many the day before, etc. The last few years, it felt like whatever deal was done (and a deal wasn’t always done) was done just minutes before time was called and pencils were down. It wasn’t always the case, of course—the Colby Rasmus deal was done a couple of days before the deadline, for instance—but that’s the impression that Mo left, one he’s already contradicting out in LA as he made one of the first deals of this cycle.

How is Chaim Bloom going to approach this, though? May would seem to be one of the better arms on the market and as such you would think that he would want to wait as long as possible to extract value. That would also seem to be the case for the names that have been bandied about but very well may not be traded, such as Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages, Lars Nootbaar, Riley O’Brien, Andre Pallante, or Jimmy Crooks.

What about Ryan Stanek, though? Do you try to squeeze every ounce out of that deal, knowing that the difference between a deal made Saturday morning and a deal made Monday afternoon may be minuscule at best? I don’t know. I would guess if, should Strzelecki not be the play, it’s probably Stanek getting shipped out to kick things off. Stanek pitched Thursday afternoon and they might be open to moving him before he is needed in the bullpen again.

We know May is going and we figure Stanek is as well. Are any of the other players really going to be moved? My gut feeling is no. If they can get the package they want for Nootbaar, an ask that is said to be “astronomical” right now, then they pull that trigger but I’m a little iffy if they’ll get it.

I really don’t think that they will trade Ivan Herrera. Move him out from behind the plate, sure. I just can’t see them giving up on that bat, though. Maybe if they were able to get a top-notch talent back, but it’d almost have to be someone that’s already established themselves somewhat and if that’s the case, why would a team trade them off?

I think a lot of the smoke around these guys is a little extra trade hype because at this time of year, there’s not a lot that is actually happening but a lot of people talking about things that could happen. The Cardinals will surely listen to offers on anyone on the roster but at the end of the day, I’d not be stunned if it was just May and Stanek that wound up leaving the team via trade.

Back to Quinn Mathews, though. Given his status and the fact that you are adding him to the 40-man roster, I don’t think he’s coming up just to give the rotation a little break. I’m not 100% sure he’s coming up to fill the upcoming May hole (not to be confused with a maypole) in the rotation.

After all, Hunter Dobbins has pitched well and there seems no reason why he shouldn’t be up here should a trade happen. So here are three possibilities.

1. The Cardinals are going to go with a six man rotation the rest of the way. That would help pitchers like Kyle Leahy and Michael McGreevy get fewer innings the rest of the way and not have them jump up a lot in their innings compared to last year.

2. Matthew Liberatore is going to the bullpen. Liberatore has a 4.84 ERA since May 1, 2025, a number that’s not been getting better as time goes along. There’s no doubt that he has his moments, but there always seems to be one inning that just blows up on him. He’s only gone six innings four times this year and, given that he’s had success in the bullpen before, you could see the club trying him there while letting Dobbins and Mathews work as starters in the big leagues.

3. Someone else besides May gets dealt. This would probably be Andre Pallante, though you wonder if a contender might look at the success rate of McGreevy and think he’d be good for the back of a rotation. I think this is probably the least likely option but something to consider anyway.

Getting a chance to watch Mathews (and hopefully Dobbins) will breath some life into the last two months of the season. There’s no doubt that the club has been harder to watch lately as the offense has become almost nonexistent (they are well last in fWAR this month with a 0.3 mark for the entire team) and the bullpen tends to give up runs late, so it’s been a bit of a drag tuning in each night.

That said, this team is significantly different from the teams of the last couple of years. This is a team with interesting young pieces like JJ Wetherholt, who continues to plow along toward a Rookie of the Year title. While Jordan Walker has scuffled since the All-Star Break (name a bat that hasn’t) he’s still doing enough to make you want to see his at bats. If he starts finding his stroke, a bunch of home runs could come in August.

There’s been a lot of grief given Masyn Winn and his offense of late. Never mind that he had the third most RBI in July on the team (granted, low bar but still) and the second-most walks. The average hasn’t been there, of course, but it still feels like he comes up with big hits when it matters. I remember having the same feeling about Yadier Molina in 2006. If there was a runner on second, I’d have rather had Molina at the plate than a lot of other guys. Winn’s hit .240 since the break, the second-highest (among qualified hitters) on the team. If he can have an average bat, and I think that’s absolutely in the realm of possibility, he’s going to be very valuable, because that glove…..oh, that glove. Getting a chance to see Winn flash the leather is a good reason to keep watching until October rolls around.

You also wonder if we won’t see some other debuts. Will Joshua Baez make his debut and how will that go? Will Leo Bernal get a taste of major league life (probably not unless some trades clear out the catcher spots)? Could there be other debuts out there?

Of course, you can always watch the minors instead the last couple of months, because there is so much talent down there that you’ll never go wrong no matter what team you pick. That’s not a reason to watch the major league club, of course, but it will keep you engaged in your Cardinals fandom.

I’m very interested to see what Chaim does in the next 66 hours or so, but even if nothing happens, I’ll still have the game on Monday night, Tuesday night, and every night after that, looking for things that bring me joy, hoping for rallies like we saw Wednesday night against the Cubs, and staking out a claim for the 2027 and 2028 Cardinals.

Allen and I had a great talk this morning on Musial, talking about the deadline and things surrounding that. Last week Allen was recovering from knee surgery, so it was good to have his normal energy and excitement back. Always makes for a better show.

Last week David was out of pocket so Kyle Reis joined me on Gateway and we didn’t talk about the draft or things of that nature, because you can hear that on every single podcast out there, including non-baseball ones I believe. Always good to talk to Kyle who has a unique insight on this major league squad as well given how many homegrown folks are part of it. David and I will be back at it this week, though we may wait until Monday to let the deadline get past.

I finished up Project Hail Mary, which was a very entertaining and enjoyable read. I’ve heard great things about the movie, even from people that have read the book, so I’ll try to get around to watching it at some point. The book was great, though, if you haven’t picked it up.

A new Star Wars book, Legacy, came out this week. Set between The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker, it focuses on Rey and Leia. I’m still getting started with it and I think it’s going to be good, but it’s hard to know this early on.