So Far So Good

Last week, we tried to determine if this season was a true treasure or fool’s gold. Another successful week has passed and the answers really haven’t changed. I know, I know, I’m supposed to pose the question in some intriguing way, get you to read on, and then work my way to that basic conclusion. I’ve never been good at SEO.

Still, it’s an off day and, with Tax Day behind this accountant, it’s nice to spend a little time tippy-tapping on the keyboard about a team that is continuing to beat expectations. While there are still a lot of warning lights, it’s also worth noting that the Cardinals are 10-8, which would put them on pace for 92 wins.

They aren’t going to win 92, not with a run differential of -17 which is third worst in the National League. (Though it should be pointed out that one of the teams worse is the Phillies, who were a pick to win the East, so all of this is still in the small sample size arena.) That run differential took a big hit in three games this weekend and, honestly, even if this team wound up around .500, they’d probably have a significant negative differential. This isn’t a team that you see winning a game 9-3 very often but you can sure see them losing games like that.

For instance, the biggest win the Cards have right now is a 6-1 W over Washington. Their second biggest is 3-0 over the Mets. In their 10 wins, they have averaged winning by 1.9 runs, which really feels like that’s how they’ll win their games this year. They’ll get just enough offense and hold on by the skin of their teeth if the bullpen is on that night. If things go south, though, it gets ugly. They’ve averaged losing by 4.5 runs, if my quick math is right.

So at that rate they could win 5 games, lose two, and basically break even on the run differential. I’d be fine with a lot of 5-2 stretches where they got outscored, wouldn’t you? I don’t think it’s sustainable, of course, but it’s fair to remember that run differential isn’t necessarily the be all and end all. They won the series against the Guardians and the Rays while being outscored overall.

That said, it’s also fair to say that they were a bit fortunate over this last series. If Maysn Winn’s ball in the bottom of the 9th in the second game doesn’t find a rock, that game goes to the Guards and at best they are a .500 team now. However, even if they have gotten some breaks here and there, they’ve taken advantage of them. It feels like over the last couple of years Winn’s single would have been followed up by a strikeout or groundout by the next batter. Instead, Yohel Pozo doubles in the gap, Winn comes around to score, and the game goes into extra innings where they hold off Cleveland and win it in the bottom of the tenth.

Does it say anything about this team that they are 4-0 in extra innings and 5-0 in one run games? Probably says that if the pitching is on, they have a chance. If the pitching isn’t, the offense can’t make it close. (Occasional comebacks not withstanding.) The early results also say when that train gets rolling, either positively or negatively, things pile up quickly.

Jordan Walker, however, still seems to be the real deal. He hasn’t hit a home run every day since we spoke last, it just feels like it. Three homers and a .360/.385/.760 line over six games? Yeah, that’ll do, especially when coupled with the hot start.

There was some concern that he was doing a significant amount of his damage against lefties early on. Now, though, he has five homers against right-handers, three against lefties while hitting .368 against the portsiders and .300 against the more dominant side. Limited success in high leverage spots, but he’s also only got six plate appearances in that category.

There’s also a confidence that he seems to project when you see him at the plate. In the past, there was a bit of an overwhelmed/lost/uncertain vibe around him. Maybe it’s the same look and I interpret it differently after eight homers, but I don’t think that’s the case. Ray Kinsella, in the movie Field of Dreams, says that Terence Mann once wrote “there comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have clicked into place and the universe opens itself up for a few seconds to show you what’s possible.” Perhaps Walker had some tumblers open for him as well.

I don’t know that we can say the same for Nolan Gorman, though maybe there are a few slightly positive things. He’s currently at 0.1 fWAR, which is better than his -0.2 fWAR he had for the past season. He’s showing up on some of the defensive leaderboards, which is a long way from the issues he had last year when he took over for Nolan Arenado. He’s not doing anything against lefties, of course, but he is hitting .227 against righties which is up from .201 last year and .204 the year before. Small victories, right?

There’s still a ton of blue on his Baseball Savant page, though. It’s slightly better than last year, but that’s such a low bar to clear. His expected batting average is in the bottom 5% of the league instead of the bottom 1%. His strikeout rate is at 30%, which is the best of his career and somewhat manageable, but things like barrel rate and exit velocity are at career lows. He’s got to be hitting 35 homers or so for the rest of his offensive game to be palatable. That’s not at all where he’s at right now—he’s on pace for around 20, which would be the second-most in his career, but it still probably wouldn’t have him at 1 fWAR.

You have to keep him out there, of course. For one, it’s two weeks (granted, on top of two rough years) and this season is all about figuring things out. Two, he could have an awakening like Walker did and start looking like a true major leaguer. Three, well, it’s not like he’s blocking anyone. Ramon Urias has been a nice bench bat but this isn’t Cardinal Prospect Ramon Urias anymore. The Cards are going to ride Gorman all year and then evaluate where he took them. That said, it’s hard to imagine a result that has Gorman as a Cardinal in 2027, in all honesty.

Dustin May has had two pretty good outings in a row, at least in comparison to his first two starts. His ERA, which sat at 15.95 at one point, is down to 6.98. Still high, but on the right path. While he has struck out four in six innings in both starts, hopefully that’s just a start toward at least a 1:1 ratio in those categories.

The velocity is there—he hit 99 last time out—but the command is still a little iffy as shown by the plot of his pitches in the game against Cleveland. Still, he only has one total walk in those two games, so he’s been able to get swings when he needs them.

I’m not any sort of analyst, but it feels like we’re getting closer to seeing the Dustin May that most of us expected, even if it’s not the 90th percentile version we dreamed about. It looks like the slider still needs work but I trust that Dusty Blake and the rest of the pitching coaches will continue to tinker with him. The idea that he was going to be the best of the starters is still probably the most likely scenario given the rest of the rotation.

The Cardinals play in Houston tomorrow night. The Astros are 8-11 and have been dealing with a slew of pitching injuries. While the cozy dimensions might not be great for Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante, and Matthew Liberatore, the offense should be able to be a little stronger. There’s a pretty decent chance that they come out of there still on the plus side of .500.

Then they go to Miami to play—gasp—a National League team. Only a third of the games they have played so far have been against teams in their own league, which is just another terrible aspect of this “balanced schedule” malarkey. (OK, so other people like it, but I don’t.) The Marlins currently are 9-10 and face Milwaukee this weekend. That should be an interesting test of the team, as Michael McGreevy, May, and Leahy will be on the mound against an offense that’s been a little more productive (in the runs category) than the Redbirds.

If the club can even just split those six games, they’d head back to Busch to welcome back Brendan Donovan and his new Mariners teammates. Seattle hasn’t been as expected yet, but they’ll be dangerous anyway.

It’s going to be fun to see how long the club can stay in positive territory with their record. It probably won’t finish up that way but we can enjoy the moments as they come, can’t we?

The book pile is going in the wrong direction. This week I got a copy of The First All-Star Game which will be out in June. Written by Randall Sullivan, it looks like an incredible telling of how the All-Star Game came to be, including the political and social climate around it. I haven’t, unsurprisingly, been able to do more than look over the cover, but I think this one should be a lot of fun for anyone that’s into baseball history.

I’m about 70 pages into We Sacrifice Everything To Baseball and it continues to be a great read about the Czech baseball team. I’m also working through Darth Bane: Path of Destruction so I won’t be trying to scramble to be ready for book club next month. While that’s now a Legends book, there’s not really been anything in current canon that contradicts it and I wonder if we’ll ever see some of those days told on screen.

Enjoyed my chat with Rich Bray last week on Musial. If you haven’t gotten a copy of The Trades That Made the Cardinals yet, you should get on that. I need to make time to get more of that book read and now that tax season is over with, maybe I can. I think Saturday afternoon might have a lot of reading in it, actually. After I get done writing this, I’ll be getting prepared to record this week’s episode with new MLB.com writer (and Dealin’ the Cards member) Josh Jacobs. We should have a lot to talk about!

Also, if you missed it, the Cardinals Off Day guys returned to the airwaves today. It’s in my queue so I haven’t gotten to it yet, but it’s always good to see a new episode drop.

Enjoy your weekend, everyone!