PRR: Marco's Calendar

The View From Above

The new negotiation table has gained relevance this week. At first, when Dinorah Figuera and Jorge Rodríguez first met–in pre-earthquake Venezuela–it was quite clear that the two rivals had reluctantly sat for a picture at the request of the US and that it would still be some time before any substantive talks would take place. In Rodríguez’s mind, these new talks could be another negotiation process dominated by chavismo, and it must have been a relief that he was told to meet with Figuera, and not María Corina Machado. While none of the other negotiations led by Rodríguez have had higher stakes than these, chavismo was nonetheless hopeful they could again use talks to give themselves time to plan and execute a strategy to reinforce their position of power (basically for free) without making any irreversible concessions. Then the earthquakes hit, and Rodríguez took advantage of them to delay any start to the talks. Fifty days passed between that picture of Figuera and Rodríguez and the first meeting of negotiators.

For Figuera, her mindset was pretty much the same as it is today: “I’m here per invitation of the Trump administration...”. While opacity has been an important part of this strategy, some things are becoming evident. First, the absolute control exerted by the US, which goes beyond the table. As the relationship has been progressing, we have seen the belligerence of chavismo reduced to the point that chavista figures who dare talk about the US and anti-imperialism in the same terms that Hugo Chávez did are now regarded as internal saboteurs. The mood towards the US inside chavismo has shifted decidedly from defiance to fear. Second, this negotiation process may be aimed at achieving a political transition, but that goal is being pursued in a manner undoubtedly designed to keep Machado out, which is in the interest of the Rodríguez regime and of the many parties and figures in the opposition for different reasons. Some opposition groups may rather have anyone else but Machado dominate the transition, others just wanted a seat at the table and a way to reinsert themselves back in the game. The lead designer, Marco Rubio, chose these negotiators because he too doesn’t want Machado to dominate his three-step process.

We expect these negotiations will be presented by Rubio as proof that the US continues to support a transition to democracy in Venezuela—whenever the time is right. However, we have noticed some interesting details in the US stance, such as slight changes in wording, where terms like elections or democracy are being displaced by “cooperating with the reconstruction after the earthquakes,” a task that can’t be done through these negotiations, and that could be code for “the political process is not our priority.”

There is, however, another way to read the unofficial chronology introduced by the US (yes, we’re assuming that most of what is happening and will happen in that table is tightly controlled by the Trump administration, as the degree of control has become ever more evident as the months have gone by).

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