The View From Above
The impact of the earthquakes on public opinion data in Venezuela will be revealed later. We’ll likely see some results in the next Atlas Intel-Bloomberg Venezuela Pulse. Everyone, us included, is talking about the damage that the late and insufficient response from the interim government will cause in Delcy Rodriguez’s electoral prospects and overall standing among the population. Chavismo, which collapsed as an electoral force back in the regional elections of 2021 and had become incapable of winning elections legitimately long before June 24, is now facing the ire of survivors and relatives of the victims in videos that spread like wildfire on Venezuelan social media, and in global outlets like the Norwegian TV channel that witnessed how a woman who lost her child in the collapse of state-built housing confronted Nicolas Maduro Guerra. Before the earthquakes, the interim president had enjoyed some patience from US officials who thought that she might be competent enough to steer the country during a stabilization period before electing a president from the opposition; now, Delcy will need to work hard to convince anyone that she can continue to lead the economic recovery of the Rubio plan. She’ll have to work even harder to convince her own allies in chavismo that she can at least prevent the total disappearance of her ilk in the next round of local, legislative and presidential elections—in whatever order they are finally held.
Among the countless videos of people complaining about the government’s response to the earthquakes, little attention has been paid to a sentence that one can hear repeated in many testimonials from the people still digging in the rubble to recover the bodies of their loved ones: ‘No one came to help us.’ This message is meant for the government, but it will be extensible to any politician on the ground looking for support in the near future, including the opposition. And while it may seem unfair to put blame on the opposition, which doesn’t control any government institution nor any local government in the most affected areas, when people say “no one” they mean no one. According to sources, Machado and her team have been heavily involved behind the scenes coordinating rescue efforts with several of the teams sent by other countries, but this important work is unseen by victims on the ground.
Governance failures on this scale can have an impact not only on a government, but also erode trust in politicians at large. Machado has enjoyed the highest approval ratings among political figures in Venezuela for years now, but we should monitor whether her inability to return to the country so far—whether because the Trump administration has blocked her return, or because she lacks assurances for her safety inside Venezuela—will have an impact on her standing among Venezuelans. Having said this, it’s important to remember that however devastating the impact of the earthquakes was, the rest of the country barely felt it. While this new tragedy is national news and the outrage generated by social media videos is widespread, the political impact in the regions needs to be measured differently.
Machado’s non-return and the possible impact on her political prospects is another example of the influence the Trump administration can exert over every political figure in today’s Venezuela. The move by the president of the Delegate Commission, Dinorah Figuera, to stake her claim as the opposition leader of the next negotiation process between chavismo and the opposition, with the full support of the US, is an even clearer demonstration of who’s calling all the shots.
Marco Rubio retweeted Figuera’s announcement saying that a new chavismo-opposition dialogue is starting on August 1. Figuera mentioned Sub Secretary Michael Kozak again as the sponsor of the initiative. When asked by journalists if Machado was part of this, she added that she was acting from a non-partisan perspective. The next announcement came from Jorge Rodriguez, who talked about reconciliation, unity and peace, which must be translated as no persecution against chavistas, no contentious people like Machado, and no protests in the streets. The following day, the Department of State saluted “the commitment to strengthen democratic institutions, improve the electoral system, and restore guarantees for political participation. The devastating earthquakes have underscored the urgency of unity, responsible leadership, and institutions capable of serving the Venezuelan people.” Finally, Machado announced she was summoning a meeting with the Unitary Platform to agree on a joint position, which let everyone know they weren’t included in these negotiations, and remained cautious about endorsing those talks.
Rubio can point to this development every time anyone accuses him of cancelling the political transition in Venezuela—he can say the process is ongoing. Figuera will follow his orders. Jorge Rodriguez will try to use this initiative to gain time and strengthen the status quo where he governs with his sister, without jeopardizing the patience of the Americans. Machado will have to try to push her way in to get a seat at that table, and if she fails, will have to decide whether to support whatever comes of it. Other minor players will watch closely to judge whether these talks are an opportunity to rebuild their influence, or yet another failed process that ends up being toxic for anyone involved.
For the moment, what Figuera calls the beginning of a route to elections in the future has the potential of becoming the place where key decisions are made—a status that the National Assembly, the barracks, and Miraflores have all tried to claim during this US protectorate without success.
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