PRR: 180 Days Later

As has happened countless times during the last two years, chavismo lost the battle to control the narrative—this time, regarding their response to the earthquakes. What was once an efficient propaganda apparatus with international reach has been unable to quench the ire of the population for the government’s dismal response to the catastrophe. They can’t counteract the constant stream of damning evidence coming across from the intense news and social media coverage from Caracas and La Guaira state, which gives voice to the same message time after time, with the same three words pueblo salvando pueblo –people saving people. People had to rescue themselves because the government was nowhere to be found, and where the government appeared, in the form of military officers, it was to sabotage aid, take pictures, and loot. A new Atlas Intel Bloomberg survey that we comment on in this report reflects that animus, as well as a steady decline of Delcy Rodriguez’s approval rates.

The interim government is eager to turn the page of a story that makes them look bad. On Wednesday, a week after the earthquakes, they declared seven days of national mourning—something they could have done on Day 1. Clearly, this is an attempt to underline that we have reached the stage of grieving, leaving behind the phase where Venezuelans scratched the rubble with their hands trying to rescue survivors amid the almost total absence of a functional State. It’s impossible to believe that only 2,595 people had perished a week after, in a densely populated strip of a city that was evidently devastated, as the world can see in the flood of images, from Instagram reels to NASA maps.

We anticipate that chavismo will be OK with closing this with an incomplete death toll that dramatically downplays the true human cost of the tragedy, because acknowledging how many people died –if the State truly has not only the will, but the capacity to produce a reliable total– would only serve to make highlight that many of them could have survived if the government wouldn’t have been so incompetent in providing help in time.

During a presser with international journalists on July 2nd, Delcy Rodríguez fumbled obvious questions regarding the slow government response, and in a Freudian slip admitted that the militarization of La Guaira answered to the need to control the narrative. Her brother, the shrink, could be seen irking on live TV.

Opposite to January 3, and its subsequent political developments, this time the main actor in the story being told is the Venezuelan population. But there are secondary characters whose performances are being reviewed by a public whose current mood isn’t really into giving away “Bravos” and applause.

Social media shows a sense of gratitude among the population for the work of US rescuers and their military in La Guaira, but are increasingly disappointed with the Trump’s administration’s decision to back Rodríguez and her cronies, while blocking María Corina Machado from entering the country. A couple of reports in outlets like Axios revealed that Machado tried twice to come back, but the Trump administration frustrated her attempts. In a new piece that quotes anonymous sources in the US government who are evidently sending a message to Machado—just like in previous months they sent threats to Maduro and Delcy Rodríguez—, Axios reports that the US is weary about Machado expecting to land in Venezuela with a US escort to perform photo ops with the foreign cargo aid. Which is exactly what the Delcy Rodríguez regime has already been doing.

What should Machado do? She is in fact facing a delicate crossroads. Machado keeps promising Venezuelans she is coordinating the details of an imminent return to support the population as they work for the survivors and grieve for the dead. She’s offering her motherly figure that’s at the core of her political persona, the one that propelled her breakout in 2023. While she noticeably avoided mentioning the US, Trump and Rubio, she addressed the subject in a recent interview and said that the relationship was fluid and in good standing –which we know is not true, and has not been true for weeks before the earthquakes. Those last messages are purposely focused on conveying that she won’t set the country on fire upon her return and that helping those affected by the disaster is the only priority. However, a new campaign against her is coming from at least a faction of the Trump administration, and it seems that Machado is pondering the risk of entering Venezuela without a solid plan or the capacities to lead the reconstruction, and without the protection of the US in case that the Rodríguez regime, and especially Diosdado Cabello, invoke the pending charges against her and dare to detain her.

The urgency brought upon by the aftermath of the earthquakes may reshape alliances and the twists and turns of Venezuelan politics in the near future. The government’s response to the emergency raises the risk of street protests, while keeping Delcy and Jorge at the helm during relief and reconstruction efforts exposes the country to corruption and the possibility of falling back into old forms of government control and repression.

Meanwhile, hiding under the rubble of the disaster, the time to provide an answer regarding an electoral solution expired—if Delcy Rodríguez were abiding by minimum constitutional standards. The 180 days that allowed for a temporary presidential caretakership ran out. As we have written before, the chavista regime is obsessed with the appearance of legitimacy, so we fully expect the chavista-controlled Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) to come up with an excuse for granting her an (indefinite) extension. The TSJ is notoriously creative in coming up with justifications for legally baseless rulings to support the regime’s agenda, so it won’t be a surprise if they use the earthquakes as an excuse. But this just provides a new layer of illegitimacy to Venezuela’s interim leadership.

Why the Armed Forces were nowhere to be seen