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Capital Folly

Thoughtful business analysis

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Bombardier’s Crash Course: How a Dream Never Took Flight

Bombardier's CSeries aimed to challenge Boeing and Airbus. Costs exploded from $2B to $8B. A steep discount to Delta triggered Boeing's 300% tariff. In 2018, Bombardier sold the program to Airbus for $1, ending their commercial aviation dreams and retreating to business jets alone.

Tesla at the Crossroads: Why Musk Chose Robotaxi Over Model 2

Tesla was at a crossroads in February 2024, with a tough decision ahead. They had to choose between producing the Model 2 or investing in the Robotaxi. Musk chose the Robotaxi. Read why.

When Mergers Work (and When They Don’t): Kellogg’s Journey and Breakup

When Ferrero Rocher paid $3.1B for W.K. Kellogg, investors made out—but was it a good buy? We explore Kellogg's history, its split into Kellanova and W.K. Kellogg, and who bought them. One deal makes sense. The other is jamming chocolate into breakfast aisles for no clear reason.

Philz Coffee: When Venture Capital Leaves Nothing for the Little Guy

Read about Philz Coffee’s journey and how the mechanics of venture capital led many employees to buy into a dream only to watch it dissolve into nothing.

Linqto: What Happens When You Cut the Wrong Corners

When Linqto filed for bankruptcy in July 2025, it was a warning to anyone working in regulated industries: some corners can’t be cut.

A Walgreens Story: What Happens When Retail Hits a Wall

Sycamore Capital's private buyout of Walgreens shows how strategic missteps brought Walgreens low.

Beyond the Headlines: The Real Reason Skechers Walked Away from Wall Street

Skechers recently made headlines after being acquired by 3G Capital for $63 per share. Media coverage was quick to connect the buyout to U.S.–China tariffs. This story, in my view, misses the real point.

Exclusivity vs Accessibility: How Hermès’s Strategy Beat LVMH

Hermès and LVMH are both luxury powerhouses with deep French roots going back to the 19th century. They have grown over the last 20 years, setting trends and influencing the industry’s direction. In this newsletter, I’ll explain what makes the difference.

A Firm Responds to Tariffs

Firms are scrambling to respond to Trump's Tariffs. The uncertainty of the tariff regime adds extra challenge. In this article, we build three successive problems and solve them using fundamental building blocks.