Circular Financing, in Chips, Land, Power and Demand
Ten Gigawatts in Pike County
Cape Fear Advisors
Original analysis on growth strategy, capital markets, and the structural questions that matter most to CEOs, boards, and investors. From Greg Collins — forty years of operating experience, M&A advisory, and independent research.
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Latest episodes
CoreWeave: Searching for the Next Participant
Circular financing requires the next ledger entry and those that follow
CoreWeave, the DDTL 5.5 Participant Ledger
What each put in, what each takes out, and in what order
CoreWeave: The Sum of the Participants
What happened next, in one round trip and four answers
CoreWeave, Adding It Up: One Filing, Two Announcements
The 8-K down the middle; the release to its left; the documents to its right
NVIDIA, the Forge House
The cash does not change; the statements do
OpenAI: The Quality of Cash Ledger
We built a framework and ran it first on OpenAI, to learn what we know, what we do not, and where to look next for signs of an "AI Bubble."
SpaceX, Adding It Up: The $̶2̶3̶5̶ $400 Billion Cash Gap
An AI company with a rocket hobby: one quarter on, the same plan comes to about $400 billion, and every added dollar is the AI build.
CoreWeave: What Has to Happen Next
The bubble and the razor.
Quality of Cash: Circular Financing and the AI Bubble
Circular financing happens every day, and the bubble, if one is there, will burst company by company.
Apple, Adding It Up: The Immaterial Toll Booth
The world's most valuable company's worth is in its business model, not its assets.
Big Tech, Adding It Up: The Trillion That Was Never Hidden
A traveling chart says the largest technology companies carry more debt off the balance sheet than on it. Every dollar in it came from their own filings, and the filings have since updated.
SpaceX and Tesla, Adding It Up: The State of the Merger
The market is asking whether the two companies will combine, and when. The filed record answers in the present tense.
SpaceX, Adding It Up: The Cost of Not Beginning
Three of the four ways to value a company go dark against SpaceX. On the one that is left, two fifths of the offering price sat above the standing businesses.
What Google Didn't Say, and on Its Record Isn't Likely To
The largest quarterly profit in corporate history was the least discussed number in its own release.
SpaceX, Adding It Up: The Ninety-Day Annuity
The revenue side of the cash gap: headlined in the tens of billions, committed for a fraction of it, and payable only once the capacity is built.
Apple, the Immaterial House
Introducing the fifth house, through the one word that keeps a rival's billions off Apple's own page: immaterial.
The Quality of Cash: What Has to Happen Next
The AI buildout counts in dollars. Not all of them are cash.
Anthropic, Adding It Up: The Judgment Calls
The unknown knowns. How much a filed record already shows about a company that has filed nothing, and what its S-1 will decide to say.
The Croupier Counts First
What it cost to be handed the money.